Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.03 (100.3 bb)
BB: $10.47 (104.7 bb)
Hero (MP): $11.77 (117.7 bb)
CO: $10.01 (100.1 bb)
BTN: $3.37 (33.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with A
K
Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.70
Flop: ($2.05) 8 3 T (2 players)
BB bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30
Turn: ($4.65) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $2.95, Hero folds
My analysis:
Spoiler
Preflop: Default open. When the BB 3bets, I have to defend this hand. I don't know his exact 3bet range in this situation nor is he polarized or depolarized, but I think it's fair to assume that it is polarized and looks something like this:
My default defending range in this situation looks like this:
Since he is relativelly unknown to me and didn't fold to 4bet once he was faced with it, I think I can just exclude the 4bet bluff range vs him and defend with value 4bets and calls, and probably be a bit tighter with calls (exclude AJs and 88).
Flop: I hit the nut flushdraw. He can't have many flushes because I block AhKh and the board blocks many of his suited connectors with which he could have a flush. I believe he is cbetting something like this:
Against that range I have 46% of equity and with pot odds of 28%, I have to call. I could hit my flush on the turn and also A or K could be good. If I miss the turn and he decided to check, I think my A-high is very often good enough so I don't see much reasons to bet, rather try to check it down or put a small bet if I hit a flush or TP on the river. Maybe I could put a small bet on the turn and river to make him fold T9 or call J9 on the turn, but that's not a big part of his range probably. Overall, I don't see many worse hands calling nor better folding if I bet the turn.
Turn: This is quite bad card for me because I'm not drawing to the nuts anymore. I believe his turn cbetting range is close to 100% of his flop cbetting range and against it I have just 20% of equity. With 28% of pot odds, I would need to win almost his entire stack on the turn (to be more precise, $4,20) if I hit my flush to make the turn call profitable, with the assumtion that my flush would always be the best hand. Since that would not always be the case (K, T, 8 would potentially make him a fullhouse), I think folding is the best.
BB: 21/16/5,7/71/108 (VPIP/PFR/3B/FlopCB/H)
