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SH Zoom AQo, SB vs MP

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $13.29 (132.9 bb)
BB: $24.73 (247.3 bb)
UTG: $7.91 (79.1 bb)
MP: $11.44 (114.4 bb)
CO: $10.85 (108.5 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($0.70) 6 9 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44

Turn: ($1.58) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.01, Hero folds

Analysis:

Spoiler

Preflop: I call this hand by default SB vs MP. I would rather 3bet bluff if I would have an aggressive BB. I don't think I can 3bet AQo for value in this situation, at least vs an average opponent. This player plays 18/17 in 341 hands and his MP RFI is 23%. I believe his RFI range is something like this:

My standard ranges in this situation are:

Flop: I hit two overs and weak BDFD so I believe I don't want to fold. I want to defend at least 60% of my range there in average to not be exploitable. This player cbets flop when in position in 78% of cases (9 occasions) and turn in 40% of cases (5 occasions), so I assume he is quite aggressive on the flop, but slows down his aggression on the turn a bit, even the samples are small. On this flop, I believe he would cbet the majority of his preflop range, something like this:

His stats tells me that I don't want to fold flop in most situations, but I have to be a bit more carefull on turns and I would usually attack most rivers by probe bet if he checks the turn, either for thin value if I hit TP or as a bluff if I hit nothing. First I will create my defending range vs cbets on this flop and it could look like this:

So it is a bit more than 60% of my preflop range, but I think it's fine. I think we can have a check/raising range on this board, so I would check raise sets for value, which is 9 comobs. That means that I need to check raise 18-20 combos as a semi-bluff, so I would choose 88-77 (12 combos) since they make a gutshots and probably AdKx and AdQx (6 combos), AcKc, AcQc, AcJc (3 combos), so my check/raising range would be this:

I believe that nut flushdraws would be strong enough to check/raise for value there, but since we have sets in our range, probably we can check/call those. My check/calling range would be this:

So, I'm calling AcQd here. My entire flop check/calling range on this board has 58% of equity against his assumed cbetting range. AcQd specifically has 48% of equity.

Turn: On this turn card, I believe he would check back some of his flop bluffs, so his cbetting range will be:

Against that range my flop check/calling range now has 44% of equity and AcQd specifically just 20% of equity. So, I think I can now fold my AKo and AQo, so my check/calling range would be:

This range has 55% of equity against his assumed turn cbetting range. Maybe I can bluff check/raise KcQc..

MP: 18/17/23/78/100(1)/40/9,3/341 (VPIP/PFR/MP_RFI/IP_FlopCB/IPFlopCB-Fold/IP_TurnCB/AF/H)


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9 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

I'd 3bet him pre since you are OOP, it also justifies folding on the flop


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not mind the way it is played. We can call both pre and on flop.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well played imo. I would call pre and flop too.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

What do you think about check/raising the flop? We have two overs and weak BDFD, so maybe the hand is weak enough for semi-bluffing. On the other hand, there are not many better hands folding the flop, so we will have to fire 2nd and 3rd barrel very often, imo. Probably any diamond, 8 or 7 would be good for bluffing the turn and A could give us the best hand (I doubt for Q).

That's just a thought. Adx would suit way more for check/raising, imo.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

And what about this?

Originally posted by 2reac
It`s good that you make advanced analizes, but this one is completely wrong!18/17 guy will never have 23% RFI in MP. Pay attention to the sample! I assume his RFI is 10-15% in MP. So you have try it back! I would simply fold this hand OTF.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We can xr but I prefer with nut bdfd.


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

I would raise flop if he made a smaller cbet. Here I think your plan to call once is fine, folding isn't that bad either.


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

If he opens 23 I would be more inclined to 3bet. As played I prefer x/f flop.

If you cold call preflop something like this: JJ-66,AQs,KQs,98s,87s,AQo,AhKd,AsKd,AsKh,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs - 63 combos
On the flop:
- x/r for value - 66, 99, AdQd, KdQd, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8c7c - 11 combos
- bluff x/r - AcQc, KcQc, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc - 8 combos
- x/c - JJ-TT, 88-77, 9h8h, 9s8s, 9c8c, 8d7d - 28 hands
and the rest is x/f.

Your hand falls into x/f. What do you think?


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by VaskataBuci
If he opens 23 I would be more inclined to 3bet. As played I prefer x/f flop.

If you cold call preflop something like this: JJ-66,AQs,KQs,98s,87s,AQo,AhKd,AsKd,AsKh,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs - 63 combos
On the flop:
- x/r for value - 66, 99, AdQd, KdQd, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8c7c - 11 combos
- bluff x/r - AcQc, KcQc, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc - 8 combos
- x/c - JJ-TT, 88-77, 9h8h, 9s8s, 9c8c, 8d7d - 28 hands
and the rest is x/f.

Your hand falls into x/f. What do you think?

I allready posted my cold calling and 3betting ranges, I'm trying w34z3l's atm, they are in the opening post. I don't have stuff like 87s in my cold calling range.


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