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66 CO v BB DonkBet Flop and Turn

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Macqas
Joined: 25.08.2014

Hi,

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $2.10 (105 bb)
BB: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $2.03 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $4.01 (200.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6 6
Hero raises to $0.06, 2 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 5 9 4 (2 players)
BB bets $0.13, Hero calls $0.13

Turn: ($0.39) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $0.38, Hero folds

PreFlop - I OR 66 in the CO. BB (complete unknown) calls.

Flop - BB donk bets 1 Pot. I don't know what he would play like this. I call since my hand is good enough.
Turn - BB bets 1 Pot one more time. Again, I don't know what his range is. The turn card gives me an OESD however, I think that if I call he will always push on the river leaving me to a hard decision whenever I don't improve. I fold.

How would you have played the hand?; What do you think villains range might be?

Thanks


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6 replies
MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

I play it the same tbh.


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wimNP
Joined: 11.03.2011

NL2, Villain is an unknown with a deep stack.

Why did Hero enter the pot from first position with an open/raise with 66?
Hero raises for protection. IMO this statement is false. 66 on its own is to weak to counter aggressive play from Villains on later streets.
Hero tries to steal the pot. IMO this is an obivious motiv but 66 is a made hand, so Hero can continue i.c. when Villain reraises preflop. (Call20 rule or Call15 rule)
Hero semi-bluffs with the possibility to hit a set on the flop. The probability to hit a set on the flop 11.8%

Hero didn't hit his set on the flop. Villain donks potsize.
Hero has 2 outs or less to get the best hand. (2 x2% gives) 4% chance on hitting a 6 on the turn. The pot odds are 2 to 1 or 33%.
Villain has bet $ 0.13. For Hero to break even V should have bet 4% of $ 0.13 gives about $ 0.01. Therefore Hero overpays the flop with $ 0.12. So the pot odds don't justify a call here.

If Hero calls and gets his set on the turn how would that effect the odds on the flop if Villain Cbets, Ch/C or Ch/F?
The pot on the turn is $ 0.39 if Hero calls the flop and before any action on the turn.
Villain Cbets the turn. The Cbet has to be at least $ 0.12 to justify a call on the flop.
Villain Ch/C the turn. Hero has to bet at least $ 0.12 to justify a call on the flop.
Villain Ch/F the turn. Hero shouldn't have called the flop.

Now Hero has not improved on the turn. Any of the two 6's could make Villain a 9-high straight. The 6 of clubs could give Villain a flush. A non-club 7 gives Hero the nuts. Hero has may be 3 outs. A 6% chance to improve on the river. The effective stacks after a turn-call are $ 2.03 -$ 0.57 = $ 1.46. The pot is $ 1.15. So if Hero gets there with the nuts he could bet or raise all-in.
So Hero risks on the turn $ 0.38 to win ($ 1.46 + $ 0.38 = ) $ 1.84. These implied gain doesn't justify a call on the turn. Hero needs to have at least 8 outs and the certainty that Villain will play for the effective stacks.

Most of the time is a hero's fold more profitable than a hero's call. (LemOn36 in one of his coachings)
Well played, Sir


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Macqas
Joined: 25.08.2014

Hi wimNP,

Thank you very much for your analysis, I enjoyed reading it


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Hero enters the pot to try to steal and to try to hit a set.
You should try to collect more info on villain's donking habbits but I like it as played.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well played. I think we could fold OTF but calling one street on this board is ok.


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MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

66 is a totally reasonable open 4-handed. Folding such a strong hand in that situation would be terrible.


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