I think he had JJ
My guess is Jh9h.
On the turn, I do not put hero on anything less than a set. He may have TT, QQ, 88, KK/AA... Or he may have a draw - J9h, ATh. Some bluffs also,...maybe A2s. I like to think that Hero would open wide and suited against Villain and outplay him post-flop and in position. The check/raise from Villain shows strength, so maybe he has a T, or also a set. As played on the turn, I put Villain on QT, based on the notes.
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I will be back to have a guess when I'm less intoxicated
it is obviously J9s. Our opponent flopped two pair plus bcs there is no sence to play on pretty dry flop check-min raise, out hero knows the tendecny to overplay strong hand from opponent. So, he had enough pod odds to call nutdraw in possition. On the turn here closed his draw, but he also sugest his oppoent could overplay his strong hand (there is no sence bet 5X on turn only with nuts vs X-MinRaise from fish who has 2p+).
J9
Standard cbet, after the raise we get great odds with OESD - 5:1 , on the turn villain bets ~ PSB, no need to slowplay our straight, we get value from most of made hands.
My answer is J9.
Since Villain check-raises the flop, I'm asuming he has a strong hand like T8, 88 or 22 -we've seen him limp-minraising AA preflop, so I guess he can check-minraise strong hands postflop, specially considering we have a read: he doesn't attack the board with draws, so I don't think he's bluffing here. So, against this range, which is consistent with his potbet on the turn, what hand could we be overbeting the turn with? I believe that when hero makes this move against this Villain who can't fold his strong hands it's always a value bet, expecting to be called. I believe the overbet tries to represent a bluff in order to induce a call on the turn considering he won't fold the strong hands we assume he has. Our hand, then, has to be the straight if we are value betting against 2pairs and sets. J9, suited or not, can semibluff the flop and has to call the minraise because it has enough odds, and on the turn the overbet is justified just because we assume he never has a hand he can fold here.
my guess on week 2 hand: I think hero has two queens because he raised preflop then called the check raise with over pair and got lucky and hit his set on turn i think he is raising the turn with a strong hand at least two pair but i think he has set of queens two queens on hand (QQ)
Do You guys think hero would have opened QQ for only 2.2bb here and more important, cbet for less than 1/2 pot vs fishy villain ? Just saying ...
Hero opens J♠:9♠:. (actually, all J9s are possible). On the flop Hero has an OESD and cbets small to have better odds to call if villain raises. He doesn't want to bet big because he doesn't have enough fold equity. If Hero would have a set on the flop, he would bet alot bigger because villain is a passive player and would pay Hero off with a wide range. As planned, Hero bet/calls the flop and then hits his straight OTT. When villain bets, Hero decided to shove because the board is now 2-suted and Hero needs protection now + he has alot of value since villain will call alot of worse hands.
I supose Hero doesn't have J9o because since he doesn't have alot of fold equity preflop nor postflop, he open raises a bit tighter vs this villain.
Let's gamble! ♦ My guess is 88. J9 i would play exactly the same, maybe betting bigger the flop as well to get some extra value on later streets vs calling station if it hits, especially if ti is suited. So if the hero's hand is J9 it's more likely to be offsuited.
J9
We know villain is passive with mediocre hands and donks TPNK so when he raises us he is probaply on a strong hand, at least TPGK+. We get perfect odds to call the raise with OESD OTF, also we know that villain does not fold strong hands so Hero can play straight forward and get it in. I think with TPTK + fd we would just call based on the read that we have to put villain on a stronger hand and we only have little FE.
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So, hero possible hands are QQ+,88, J9s. (Most regulars won't open 22 from UTG). I think with over KK+ here will play just bet-bet-bet.
Low cards on the flop fits well for the preflop caller. He made provocating bet less then 1/2 was XRaised by hero on pretty dry flop, There is no sense to make this move only with nuts (88,QQ) or air with equity (J9s- JTs with potential on backdoor flush). Turn closes straight with J9s and hero X-PUSH So, now hero could have 88,QQ,J9s. I think the way it is played XRF for for equity vs weak bet and X-push turn hero has J9s
Hero has J9s. Villain is a fish. OTF hero decides to x/r weak opponent who bets with any2 when checked to as a semi bluff. Flop is really dry and its really hard for villain to hit this kind of board so we'r expecting to get a lot of folds when he bets with his whole range. Hero gets called so we know that he have hit the board somehow, probably Qx. We hit our gutshot OTT and decide to x/r all in to get maximum value from Villain who has problems folding any pair hands.