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Get Rich or Die Tryin' Jackpots

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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Fresh news to all Lithuanians. GALA and Coral leaves Lithuanian market in couple of weeks, most likely microgaming too.
That means the only choice left for me is pokerstars. That's not a very good news...

EDIT:
http://www.lpt.lt/nelegalios-losimu-veiklos-vykdytojai/
Heres the list of blocked rooms in Lithuania. Well it was a lot of fun guys :)


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Therefore Heres my challenge EDIT:
Week 15
hands: 0 ; 188 tourney
profit: $ 148.35
starting BR : 99.74
current BR: 894.35 (295+ of cash outs) + 60 in RB
TOTAL: 1249,35

I included my expenses not all but most of it. Because I have no idea whats goin' to happen.
Since poker is not that profitable for me emigration because of poker is out of question.
Waiting for more news


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

Originally posted by SirPaulius
Fresh news to all Lithuanians. GALA and Coral leaves Lithuanian market in couple of weeks, most likely microgaming too.

Cowards :f_mad:

Are the legal charges against sites circumventing the locks really dangerous for them?

Russia can only block sites but can't really fine any offshore company yet, so it's been all OK except a few iPoker skins that quit because they didn't have a big loyal player base here anyway and marketing became -EV for them.


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Originally posted by tonypmm

Originally posted by SirPaulius
Fresh news to all Lithuanians. GALA and Coral leaves Lithuanian market in couple of weeks, most likely microgaming too.

Cowards :f_mad:

Are the legal charges against sites circumventing the locks really dangerous for them?

Russia can only block sites but can't really fine any offshore company yet, so it's been all OK except a few iPoker skins that quit because they didn't have a big loyal player base here anyway and marketing became -EV for them.

A similar situation is here except our market is very insignificant for pokerstars or others. Made a deposit to Pstars this morning, they assured that money is safe for now at least.

Funny thing happened yesterday, from my 3x5 Euro tokens won 40 euro so + RB I finished my challenge even without expenses ;)
Also we have a room which operates legally in Lithuania and it is in microgaming network, hope rumors about PKR and microgaming will come true, and I will be able to continue playing jackpots.
Cash as a alternative does not seem to me attractive.


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Pokerstars position:
Hello XXXXXXXX,

Thank you for your email.

Our management team regularly reviews our operations along with independent 3rd party professionals to assess the business risks and opportunities for our brands on a market-by-market basis. Following our most recent review, it was determined that we would no longer offer real money games in your country.

Players who attempt to play for real-money from your country with the aid of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) or other technical workarounds will lose their playing privileges and/or funds in their account.

You can read about this, and more, at our Frequently Asked Questions page at:

http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/jurisdiction-faq/


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

Congrats on finishing the challenge! :f_drink:

That Pokerstars decision is sad, but at least you're an EU citizen and it will be easy for you to rent a flat in some other country and give poker another go when you take a sabbatical leave or decide to leave the current job (all jobs become boring or frustrating sooner or later, don't they?).

I thought poker would be profitable enough for you if you played it full time, but of course I'm not going to object to your decision to leave it :f_biggrin:

GL with your real life meanwhile :gl:


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

afterall it might not be that bad.

> This is the response which another player received from you:
>
> ///////
> Hello XXXXXXXX,
>
> Thank you for your email.
>
> Our management team regularly reviews our operations along with independent
> 3rd party professionals to assess the business risks and opportunities for
> our brands on a market-by-market basis. Following our most recent review,
> it was determined that we would no longer offer real money games in your
> country.
>
> Players who attempt to play for real-money from your country with the aid
> of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) or other technical workarounds will lose
> their playing privileges and/or funds in their account.
>
> You can read about this, and more, at our Frequently Asked Questions page
> at:
>
>
http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/jurisdiction-faq/br >
> ///////
>

Thank you for the follow-up.

I'm afraid the information that this other player received is misleading.

Apologies about this, but at this time no such decision has been made and we can't speculate about the outcome of the situation.

We can only assure you at this point that all players in Lithuania will be informed accordingly if any such changes are to take place.

Thank you for your patience.

AFAIK they handt decided yet wha taction will be taken.


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

So whats happening in Lithuania is so absurd... Let me try to explain it.

parliament approved a new gambling law:
All the company's which does not pay taxes become illegal which obvious is not bad at all But here the Funny things happens neither does ebay, google, amazon etc, but its really nothing. And also to reduce gambling.

They state that anyone who want might get license to operate legally !
All you have to do is have at least:
a) 1 Casino
b) 5 points totalizator horse Sweepstakes (not sure if translate translated it correctly, lol) place where you bet at recorded horse race.
c) not less than 10 slots salon
d) not less than 20 betting points
e) nots less than 20 of something else..

And also to reduce gambling

:yaoming: In 2015 in Lithuania existed (8 Casinos; 179 slot salons; 168 betting points) yeah this should help to prevent gambling if someone decide to get a license ' Las Lithuania' .
So basically this law all smells corruption scandal, because it could be +EV just for one company.

Now riddle for you ! Who was elected to Europe parliament, who's 'gang' is in Lithuanian parliament, who already have a license and said 'On you bike to Pokerstars'

Spoiler

:truestory:


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Since I am not sure whats going to happen in future, I have decided to not to play jackpots for a while. Only very few legal operator available for Lithuania now, obv old ones works too but who knows how long.. Those operators offers only a cash game with semi decent traffic, so If I wanna keep playing poker I will have to take offer, and start grinding cash right now. I will opt in for a new challenge which will sound something like 200 to 1k, I will start at NL5, and will be taking coachings, so I should be able to beat at least NL10;).


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vonki
Joined: 18.03.2008

Good luck transitioning to CG :) really sucks with all these regulations left and right :f_frown:


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

PKR's CEO has just confirmed that jackpot SnGs will appear on the entire Microgaming network 'soon' after PKR's confirmed immigration onto the network. (Discuss here.) So you'll be able to play your main format out of Lithuania no matter what :f_drink:


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Originally posted by tonypmm
PKR's CEO has just confirmed that jackpot SnGs will appear on the entire Microgaming network 'soon' after PKR's confirmed immigration onto the network. (Discuss here.) So you'll be able to play your main format out of Lithuania no matter what :f_drink:
Phew I already thought I will have switch to CG which is same as not to play poker:yaoming:. Anyway it will take some time to implement this format in microgaming. I will start a new challenge 200 to 1k will start with CG and will switch to jackpot ASAP it will appear.


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

OK, so situation now seems to be stable, they are blocking only at DNS level which is nothing. I cashed out my entire roll, and it will not come back to poker market. I left a 100 usd at pokerstars now it is 230 + 3k SC, when I will reach a 300 I will start a new challenge this time at spin n go's


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

236 + 3.1k SC, soon !


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Okay so situation seems to be stable In Lithuania. My daughter is all most 1 year. When think times goes really fast. I did change my job into a little bit less stressful, and better salary ! I am planing a come back. Not sure if I will go with a fancy one HU, or i will continue where I left a jackpots most likely with Tim again, hope he still do coaching. Tony if you are still here, give me a little info whats going on in jackpots, i think I am able to play at coral, but if no whats the alternative without pokerstars.


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Head Admin
SvenBe
Joined: 19.04.2006

Originally posted by SirPaulius
Okay so situation seems to be stable In Lithuania. My daughter is all most 1 year. When think times goes really fast. I did change my job into a little bit less stressful, and better salary ! I am planing a come back. Not sure if I will go with a fancy one HU, or i will continue where I left a jackpots most likely with Tim again, hope he still do coaching. Tony if you are still here, give me a little info whats going on in jackpots, i think I am able to play at coral, but if no whats the alternative without pokerstars.

Howdy, Tim is still around and Tonypmm,too!
Currently available poker rooms for you can be found here: Bonus offers

CU & hope to have you back in the challenge soon!


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

Originally posted by SirPaulius
Tony if you are still here, give me a little info whats going on in jackpots, i think I am able to play at coral, but if no whats the alternative without pokerstars.

Welcome back! :f_drink:

First of all, Coral and Gala left a lot of countries, incl. Russia, this August. The current list of accepted countries (which does not include Lithuania) is as follows:

Spoiler

United Kingdom
Republic of Ireland
Albania
Argentina
Belarus
Croatia
Czech Republic
Georgia
Gibraltar
Guernsey
Iceland
Isle of Man
Jersey
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Macedonia
Malta
Netherlands
New Zealand
Saint Kitts and Nevis
San Marino
Slovakia
Slovenia
Sweden

Didn't Coral send you an email about stopping real money services in Lithuania? I hope you can find an alternative iPoker anyway. €20 and €50 Twister were added onto the network in summer (with the same 7% rake).

Anyway, as you know, 3 major networks have added jackpot SNGs in your absence, three 'evils' for you to choose from, if you wish:

1. Party has had Sit & Go Hero with 5-6% rake since March 31. It's mainly* 4-handed with 3-minute levels, no antes and a bounty placed on the head of one, randomly assigned, player (the bounty worth 1/4 of the total prize pool, the remaining 3/4 going to the winner). There are way too many regs at the $10-20 stakes to my taste, and it becomes way too similar to Stars Spins after the bounty is taken or its bearer becomes a big chip leader. The HU phase usually plays a bit deeper than at Stars.

* Except the $25 Caribbean satellite SnG Hero (3-handed, winner-take-all) that you probably shouldn't play (it awards tickets that are only usable in Caribbean satellites, so it's a huge waste of money because the buy-in of the target event is $2750, less than 35% of the $8K package).

2. Microgaming has had Fish Party SnGs since July 11. They're much like Twister - they have 2-minute levels with antes and are winner-take-all (except the 500x and the grand jackpot games that have 5-minute levels and split the prize pool 50%/30%/20%). A huge difference is that the jackpot is progressive, and its expected value (the value where the effective rake becomes equal to the nominal 5% on which rakeback is based) is 36022 buy-ins. When the JP is lower than that, the 'return to player' is in fact less than the nominal 95% - it can be as low as 90% right after a jackpot is taken and reset to 5K BIs. So there are huge fluctuations in rake; correspondingly, there are huge fluctuations in softness - of course the games are going to be soft while the JP is low because regs are afraid of not beating such huge rake, and tough when the JP grows above 40K BIs. I'm never going to play this game again as contributions to such a big JP are sunk costs for me, I'd rather bink $30K(-$90K) in the best scenario but have a decent ROI in the worst scenario.

3. 888 has had BLAST since July 19. I'm tired of writing so I'll refer you to my screenshots of its rules in case the page on the official site is blocked by your ISP.

Most of the profit in BLAST comes from 5x tourneys that hit with a ~40% frequency and are similar to the (pre)bubble phase of 6-man turbo/hyper SnGs. However, the timer does add a strategic twist and you should think outside the box in the last blind level instead of applying ICM. The fact that players are put all-in automatically after 6 minutes pass means that the HU phase is hardly meaningful if it happens at all. The all-in phase also damaging to the nerves of those whose mental game is weak and who sweat those stackoffs; to me, though, it's not a problem as I can minimise this table and load a new tourney instead.

Regarding the ROI, obviously it's not going to be stellar as the rake is high, but I do expect to eventually achieve 5% in 15s (2% if we exclude 100x+ jackpots) after I figure out what I'm doing wrong in 2x's that causes me to finish 2nd too often (most probably, I'm way too tight in 4-max and usually arrive to the HU with a small stack, as my 4th place finish frequency is only 15%). I'm admittedly bad at exploiting recreationals, and there are plenty of them, judging by the abundance of unconventional preflop sizings (full pot or all-in for 30 bb). Mind that I can easily play 40-50 games an hour as they're very fast.


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Head Admin
SvenBe
Joined: 19.04.2006

Originally posted by tonypmm
2. Microgaming has had Fish Party SnGs since July 11. They're much like Twister - they have 2-minute levels with antes and are winner-take-all (except the 500x and the grand jackpot games that have 5-minute levels and split the prize pool 50%/30%/20%). A huge difference is that the jackpot is progressive, and its expected value (the value where the effective rake becomes equal to the nominal 5% on which rakeback is based) is 36022 buy-ins. When the JP is lower than that, the 'return to player' is in fact less than the nominal 95% - it can be as low as 90% right after a jackpot is taken and reset to 5K BIs. So there are huge fluctuations in rake; correspondingly, there are huge fluctuations in softness - of course the games are going to be soft while the JP is low because regs are afraid of not beating such huge rake, and tough when the JP grows above 40K BIs. I'm never going to play this game again as contributions to such a big JP are sunk costs for me, I'd rather bink $30K(-$90K) in the best scenario but have a decent ROI in the worst scenario.

It's funny cuz my reasoning would be totally the other way around:
Regs are playing cuz they need it for volume/RB/want to win with their ROI and make money. So, they play with low and high Jackpots.

Fish however are attracted by growing JPs, so the bigger it becomes the more people come - mostly fish. Isn't that all the reason why the rooms introduced the Jackpots?


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

I will go for betfair, they're still allowing Lithuanians if i am not mistaken. most likely I will start at October 1st. for sure i will join a challenge.


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

That's cool, :gl:

Originally posted by SvenBe
It's funny cuz my reasoning would be totally the other way around:
Regs are playing cuz they need it for volume/RB/want to win with their ROI and make money. So, they play with low and high Jackpots.

Fish however are attracted by growing JPs, so the bigger it becomes the more people come - mostly fish. Isn't that all the reason why the rooms introduced the Jackpots?

In my experience with iPoker's 6-man jackpot SNGs, they had bigger traffic but also were much more reg-infested (0-1 fish per game as opposed to the norm of 2) when the JP was way above average (say, >=€80K for the €20 BI, the average being €40K-50K).

One of the reasons was that regs don't like to play at the times when they can't get enough games going to 'fill their screens' - that's why SNGs are softer at offpeak hours. It's not a factor at low stakes Fish Party, but is still relevant to €20 and especially €50 FP because the traffic there is rather scarce.

Another, more important, reason, is that recs usually play at 1-2 tables regardless of the JP size, while regs can easily go from focused 2-tabling with low JP (when 6-tabling might lead to a negative ROI) to crazy 6-8-tabling when the JP becomes high, because they can profit even with poor game quality (button-clicking) at the latter times and volume becomes more relevant. This follows the same logic as with casino progressive jackpots - advantage players put in massive volume there only when the JP becomes way above average because they're 'paid to play' at such times. In iPoker's golden age (2 years ago), it was not uncommon of regs to 12-table during high JP times, I was doing that myself.

One more reason is that regs are very aware of the effective rake amount (know that it can be up to 10% when the JP is low, which is commonly considered unbeatable, though this view is somewhat myopic because the fish-to-reg ratio is not taken into account), which makes them afraid of playing during low JP times.


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