Good luck with the girl and in poker.
Looking forward to your next update! 
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Originally posted by Primrose6789
Good luck with the girl and in poker.Looking forward to your next update!
Ah, appreciate the good vibes always!
Such a swingy day today at the tables. I will eventually post pre and post GF graphs ♦
From what I can see is that I am down over 25 buy ins since I started 2nd deal but running bellow EV minimum 40 buy ins, and all this in 400-500 games which is LOL sample of course for any SNG/Spin/HU hypers/ShortStack type of game.I do expect in next 140-150 hours things to get back on track with both ITM and ROI. I am going through variance now, have to play through it and keep the decisions strong, not let the swings affect my solid game plan.
Enjoy the weekend Prim!
Originally posted by Worldtraveler
Hello Ivice, How can i make deposit from Serbia, help me please???
Hello!
I sent you a response to your private message earlier on. Hope that helped you!
I do expect in next 140-150 hours things to get back on track with both ITM and ROI. I am going through variance now, have to play through it and keep the decisions strong, not let the swings affect my solid game plan.
Do you have some advices for beginners how to do it? Downswings are a living nightmare and hard to cope with them when you are not used to it yet. Would appreciate a couple of tipps and tricks!
Originally posted by Primrose6789
I do expect in next 140-150 hours things to get back on track with both ITM and ROI. I am going through variance now, have to play through it and keep the decisions strong, not let the swings affect my solid game plan.
Do you have some advices for beginners how to do it? Downswings are a living nightmare and hard to cope with them when you are not used to it yet. Would appreciate a couple of tipps and tricks!
Hi Prim,
You always ask awesome questions and bring interesting points. This is another example of it. I will share now with you and other readers and followers of blog approach(es) that I used to take and take now. I am positive it will bring a lot of light into this topic and open up discussion even more.
Lets start
Downswing
Concept of downswing is very relative and subjective in my opinion. There are people who can take swings very hard and not consider them swings and then there is those who after loosing twice with AA start crying, tilting, breaking mouses, keyboards, monitors, swear and get super angry and upset. So downswing in that mater is very subjective and personal feeling. However, there is universal "truth" when it comes to concept of downswing and best way to describe it by my definition is as following: "Not getting results as mathematically calculated and expected". This is bottom line what downswing is. Graph and stats show that you should have for example 5% ROI pre RB but you get 2%, you are on a downswing. Your evbb/100 stat (for cash game and spins very useful because of cEV concept) show you have ebb/100 = 10 , but you are running at 2bb/100, then you are running bellow EV.
Now, it is really important to understand while stats are key thing that shows us if we are on downswing or not, it is also of vital importance to take following factors when considering downswing:
- Mental game in each grind session
- Tactical knowledge and confidence in ones game
- Default game plan and adjusting of it
- Type of decisions at the tables
- Type of opponents at the tables
- Overall conclusion and self estimation
So to connect the dots, this basically means that if you played with bad mental game, rushing decisions, feeling overwhelmed - your mental and tactical game are very likely big problem and that will have huge effect on the results. If you played and wasn't sure in a lot of pre and post flop plays, again - need to spend time in the lab (outside of tables) to fix those leaks and automate them so next time spots like that show that you know what you are doing. If you had very hard decisions in the sessions, results will of course vary for many players. What separates crushers from regular or loosing players is crushers minimize looses and protect winnings during those super hard decisions (say that you have lots of bluff catchers but textures and ran outs don't favor you well!) + they work really hard to improve and fix the leaks in those spots vs regular folks who just play, omit those spots, hardly ever or never work on them and just maximize profit when they do have a hand and when opponent is calling light etc. Default game plan vs adjusting is also key thing. Say you started to 4 bet shove in HU in Spins light because you were confident that was +EV but you never actually spent time doing DB analysis how light people 3bet non all in for certain blind depths and what range they use and what 4 bet shoving range you should use - it is very likely that you are burning chips/money there and adjusting by feeling and not by studying and confidence in emparical proof. Types of opponents at the tables during sessions matter a lot. Say that you play tons of sessions vs regs and your game plan and knowledge vs them is weaker and you keep getting crushed - well, results are likely going to diminish and you are going to have even tougher swings. Finally, overall conclusion and self estimation of all the things is key to understanding how you are doing. I can go on play 5 hours, drop 100 buy ins, but if in all the sessions 80% of times when I went in with hand I was 100% sure I was supposed to go all in and I got called and got crushed by stronger hand/range, then I have no doubt that I am on a downswing due to setups and card distribution. However, if I play 5 sessions, drop 100 buy ins but at least 40-50 buy ins I remember that I screwed up bunch of spots pre flop (not opening enough or opening to wide, or not 3 betting or 3 betting too wide etc) or post flop mistakes (not value betting enough or not bluffing enough) then that is not a downswing. I will repeat, 2nd case is not a downswing !!! And program will show you that you still run bellow EV in both cases very likely but in 2nd case you lack knowledge and confidence in a lot of spots and it is very likely that you need to spend a lot of time in the lab to improve and minimize those kind of swings.
Now, we all have this and are going through this. I will be the 1st one to admit that even after 4 years of learning and playing poker, I have spots where I am not 100% sure about range construction IP or OOP on specific textures and run outs. This is why in 2017 I will dedicate time to very specific study goals to fix those leaks as I know that such knowledge will improve my win rate and give me even higher confidence at the tables!!!
So now here are the keys how to approach downswing no matter what level you are!
1st how I approached it in the past
1) Looked at the graph and stats
2) Then went to look through lost hands. Marked the ones where I messed things up, write thinking process and move on.
3) Schedule coaching session to get advice on specific hands and spots (strategy session).
4) If mistakes were pre flop, I would work more in HRC or such software to tweak and improve my knowledge pre flop.
5) Grinding. To get out of downswing, you need to put in hours, play and crush and over time things will get back to "normal".
This worked because the more I was checking lost hands and writing thinking process for myself, the more I was improving and understanding when and why certain things are done and getting this huge knowledge of IP vs OOP play, initial aggressor vs cold caller, effective stack sizes, pot to stack ratio, value to bluff ratios, opponent tendencies, default play etc. Without doing hand history review this would have never happened. Even today, I find hand history review with thinking process the single most improvement method for both pre and post flop.
Back in the past there weren't dream machines (softwares that teach GTO ranges) and in my poker career I have taken coaching only from several guys who actually know range vs range on any post flop texture. Before, I was playing things in vacuum, by feeling and what my mind was percieving opponents do ("Oh, here they call on river such and such hands, this is bet" - without empharical proof and without post flop software analysis). Things of course change for me when I got into HU hypers (took coaching and beat 15s and moved to 30s also). After that the key was also moving to CG and doing even more in depth pre and post flop studying, which is when all the dream machines came in play for me.
How I approach downswing now:
1) Look at the graph and stats. Check EVbb/100 vs actual bb/100. Check all the positions in Spins and see where I am leaking - did this in the morning for example and saw that I am doing very well from SB but my BB has a negative tendency on 1 specific scenario which I will pay a lot more attention to in future grind sessions!
2) I take specific stat that shows me where I am leaking and then start checking the hands. I go through those hands, check if I ran into stronger hands (variance) or if I messed up hand pre or post flop. Pre flop by being to passive or too aggro; post flop by not bluffing effeciently when I could have or by not folding when I should have (overestimating bluff catcher in that spot for example). I make a mental note of each hand and work on finding a pattern for specific scenario where I am leaking post flop (example wet textures or paired or whatever!) then I put it in my notes to work on those textures in the lab! Most of the times, this is enough to show me how much mistakes I make or made vs actual variance. If I made very little mistakes I feel awesome and confident and I am ready to fire up tables and step on the grind! If I however find too many mistakes, I would make a note of all the scenarios where I leak chips/money and then I would do work in the lab.
3) Working in the lab. It could be equity calculations; pre flop spots; general game plan with adjustments vs specific opponents that I feel I am not winning against enough; post flop texture studying for range vs range in and out of position; DB analysis for scenarios where I am unsure if my expectations are good and correct.
After doing even 1 of the things mentioned and finishing what I had in mind, I am ready to go back at tables and resume grind. This is because my confidence is not only restored but even boosted simply because : a) I know I am winning player already b) This studying can just help and improve my win rate c) Studying always boosts my confidence and pushes me to improve and seek more solutions to questions I have
4) Study partner. It helps to check with people that are on same or similar thinking level with you or even better. I have several study partners from whom 1 plays 30s spins, 1 plays 7s but has CG knowledge as well and another that can crush NL200 ZOOM and has brutal range vs range knowledge + db analysis and tendencies studied (true geek and freak!!!). These guys are all awesome and when I talk to them with specific hand, scenarios or theory spots, I get a lot of useful feedback and simply check if I am on the right track. The fact is this - work with players better then you and you will improve. Simply because those players have gone through things you are going to and can help you with things you are stuck with.
5) Coaching. I give and I get coaching. Last coaching I charged 150$ per session for Spins. I don't do profit split deals right now, I just coach per session and I don't want to give my range vs range and overall game plan cheap to anyone. Why? Because I worked years and payed in coaching myself 20k+$ to get to where I am now. That knowledge that I have is worth even more then 150$ per hour but I choose to help a friend and student who needed my help (I even overdelivered with extra sessions and help offered for hand history evaluations for him). I also take coaching and invest in myself. Right now I feel grateful that I know what I need to do myself to improve without coaches help. I can do DB analysis on my own and adjust strategy. I can study range vs range on my own thanks to those dream machines. All this is possible. Having a coach for me would just speed up the process. Say that I take person who plays and crushes 30s and I want to move there. The reason why I would take such coaching is to get insight into tendencies. That coach would immediately tell me in HU how fish vs regs play. What do they use for non ai 3 bet ranges, what is their average 3 bet all in %? How do they play post flop in HU? Do they donk if so on what textures? Do they barrel 2 - 3 streets often and on what textures? How do they play vs different lines? How do opponents play in limped pots? A great coach and player would take all my question, do DB analysis (if he/she hasn't done it already!) and come back to me with all the answers and strategy adjustments. That for me is coaching worth every single penny because I get tendencies of limit I want to crush and based on them I build my game plan and just fire tables and print money. I can of course do this on my own but I have to play tournaments, get the sample in, burn money in the process and then do DB analysis on my own. Having a coach would just speed that up! And again, I am grateful that I know already several regs that play 30s-100s who offered their help to me. None of them asked for money but I am positive that some of them would expect some $ in return, the others just one to help for the sake of helping a guy like myself move up and crush.
6) Grinding. To get out of downswing, you need to put in hours, play and crush and over time things will get back to "normal".
So there you go. That is my outlook on downswing and how to deal with it.
Bottom line is, downswing or not, build steady habit of studying which includes: db analysis (to figure out what opponents do), hh reviews (finding leaks you have in actual games) and post flop texture and range vs range studying (if you see a pattern where you constantly loose chips/money - you likely suck and need to improve in those spots!).
Hope this response was useful both for you Prim and community. It took me again over 1 hour to write this out but I firmly believe it is very worth it for all of recreational, semi and professional poker players who are looking for ways how to improve and overcome downswing.
Now I am heading back to grind and pay attention to leak I found on BB 3/3 players 
Hello and thank you very much!
That´s (almost) exactly what I do: Look at stats, EV, opponents and search for leaks (mostly pf because in my hyperturbos there´s very little post flop play). Indeed, I saw a couple of hands getting wrong, pushing/calling/folding in the wrong spot, that´s not so frustrating, because it was ME and I can do that better next time.
But the greatest horror for me is loosing hands for a long period of time because of the card distribution or just because Villains hit their 2- or 3- outers over and over and over again. In November I ran far below my EV on Everest (graph in my blog) and so many times I pushed correctly but ran into a premium hand. Got called by Villain holding AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AK or sometimes JJ or just a higher pair. This phase lasted really long, I became insecure and BANG! made mistakes, got hands wrong which costed me even more money (okay not so much, but anyway).
I´m at the beginners level so of course I have tons of leaks on which I have to work on. My really biggest problem is motivation when such things happen when you feel like you have always the looser-hand, either the second best or Villain gets "lucky" with something like J3o against your AKs or if you push with something like TT in the SB and BB calls you and shows KK. A couple of times: no problem. A day such hands: no problem, even two or three days: no problem. But it has lasted now for about 5-6 weeks and it starts to get on my nerves. It´s like a "need a break"-tilt, you just don´t feel like going to the tables.....
You know what I mean?
Originally posted by Primrose6789
Hello and thank you very much!That´s (almost) exactly what I do: Look at stats, EV, opponents and search for leaks (mostly pf because in my hyperturbos there´s very little post flop play). Indeed, I saw a couple of hands getting wrong, pushing/calling/folding in the wrong spot, that´s not so frustrating, because it was ME and I can do that better next time.
But the greatest horror for me is loosing hands for a long period of time because of the card distribution or just because Villains hit their 2- or 3- outers over and over and over again. In November I ran far below my EV on Everest (graph in my blog) and so many times I pushed correctly but ran into a premium hand. Got called by Villain holding AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AK or sometimes JJ or just a higher pair. This phase lasted really long, I became insecure and BANG! made mistakes, got hands wrong which costed me even more money (okay not so much, but anyway).
I´m at the beginners level so of course I have tons of leaks on which I have to work on. My really biggest problem is motivation when such things happen when you feel like you have always the looser-hand, either the second best or Villain gets "lucky" with something like J3o against your AKs or if you push with something like TT in the SB and BB calls you and shows KK. A couple of times: no problem. A day such hands: no problem, even two or three days: no problem. But it has lasted now for about 5-6 weeks and it starts to get on my nerves. It´s like a "need a break"-tilt, you just don´t feel like going to the tables.....
You know what I mean?
For sure!
After I payed of apartment mortgage I played very little poker past 4 weeks or so. It is for reason of course. Poker can get to you, change your mood when running bad and it can affect the rest of your life. This is why it is crucial in my opinion not to just do poker in ones life but to rather do other things that you are passionate about and aim to compete at them. For me that is loosing kgs, adding muscle, working out, increasing my stamina and strength while reaching new personal records for certain exercises that draw me to exercise in the 1st place (pull ups being the major drive for me!). Same thing goes for music. I help people and want to help millions. This is where doing the course will come into play and restarting my guitar community website with weekly video chat sessions and forum. I also value my time with friends family and girls. Just with new girlfriend past week I spent at least 25+ hours. So yeah, without all these things I would probably either become better then Doug Poulk in poker (go all in beast mode and crush and own souls) or I would quit poker all together. I really see no point grinding 10+ hours per day with low hourly. It is far better to grind 3-4 hours per day but continuously study, improve, move up stakes and increase hourly. That is for me the case now, I try to always find new ways to adjust and improve my strategy both at and off the tables. I do so little studying, it is embarrassing really. But I choose to do it that way, there is no excuse for it really, I don't prioritize it.
For 2017 I expect it to be extremely difficult year for me because I need to do all these huge things that I set to accomplish and with that also maintain and grow relationship with current GF. Without GF, things are easier but with her it becomes very complicated because time management gets affected greatly and I need to maximize every single spot possible.
Again, goals for 2017 are:
- Earn 50k$ both from poker and music
- Learn range vs range on 20 specific post flop textures with turns and rivers as well.
- Record and publish 1st official guitar course. (set up passive income stream)
- Maintain and grow current guitar and music teaching.
- Teach poker both privately (private sessions) and consider doing video(s) for public (PokerStrategy)
- Invest money in betting (low risk low return) with separate bankroll.
- Aim to shoot and move to 30s, increase hourly from 25-30$ to 35-40$ post RB.
Solution to 99% of mental game problems is lack of studying which also results in lack of knowledge and confidence on and off the tables. So prioritize study, especially in the beginning stage of poker career and keep it going as much as possible. I prioritized it when my goal was to beat 15s and I didn't stop until I could win at 6 max SNGs both 15s and 30s. Now I have a drive to work hard in 2017 and get those 50k while improving like a boss, increasing my win rate.
Wish you all the luck and remember that with larger sample there is more chance that variance will even out also. So prioritize grinding even when times are really hard like now!
Solution to 99% of mental game problems is lack of studying which also results in lack of knowledge and confidence on and off the tables. So prioritize study, especially in the beginning stage of poker career and keep it going as much as possible. I prioritized it when my goal was to beat 15s and I didn't stop until I could win at 6 max SNGs both 15s and 30s. Now I have a drive to work hard in 2017 and get those 50k while improving like a boss, increasing my win rate.
THIS! You´re so right! Instead of weeping in your blog 
I´d rather take ICM trainer, PT4, analyze my hands, analyze the hands of others here and learn how to play in different spots.
And do something creative is a very good way to calm down, that´s why I never would give up my writing even if I became a shark one day ♠_biggrin:♠_ugly: By the way, I would love to hear you playing guitar.
Originally posted by Primrose6789
Solution to 99% of mental game problems is lack of studying which also results in lack of knowledge and confidence on and off the tables. So prioritize study, especially in the beginning stage of poker career and keep it going as much as possible. I prioritized it when my goal was to beat 15s and I didn't stop until I could win at 6 max SNGs both 15s and 30s. Now I have a drive to work hard in 2017 and get those 50k while improving like a boss, increasing my win rate.
THIS! You´re so right! Instead of weeping in your blog
And do something creative is a very good way to calm down, that´s why I never would give up my writing even if I became a shark one day ♠_biggrin:♠_ugly: By the way, I would love to hear you playing guitar.
Nothing wrong in weeping - we are all humans after all and by default we are not perfect. It would be crazy to expect anyone to be perfect human being, we all are vulnerable and fragile at different things. Embrace that and you accept all people in your life the way they truly are vs what you want or expect them to be. Saves you a lot of stress also worrying about things that you can't change (people themselves are the only ones that decide and take steps to change - nobody can make them do something they don't already want - unless under a life or death situation threat!)
Will post in future some hands as example of variance vs bad plays as a help for you and others following and looking to learn and improve.
Example how 1 day changes everything
Before yesterday, in my new deal I went down from 1500$ to 900ish$ and that is even with 100-150$ RB that I cleared with SN status. I was running bellow EV in 11-12 hours of grind and then yesterday poker and beauty of it (and spins) happened.
I was down at the beginning of the day 225$ and ended up in profit 570$. So that is close to 800$ of swings on 15$ limit which is over 50 buy ins in swings. How did this happen? I got 10x twice and won it both times! So that helped, 300$ right there. Then there was also in the last session of the day lots of 4x and 6x games from which I won decent amount of. So the end result is in 6 hours of grind making 570$ on 15$ limit. Very cool.
Now after such day, in the new deal I am running above EV.
I looked into hands and saw tons of setups but also found leaks. It is important to note that yesterday I tested 3 new things in my strategy and I will continue applying and testing them. Things I noticed with it is that on this limit I have no big problem with those added/changed approaches because % wise there is very few opponents that will figure out what I am doing it and counter adjust - which works great for me of course. But, this current game plan is not optimal for 30s I am positive while it is preparation for 60s+. Applying new things also got me into top of the range a lot more then usual but notice I just tested it 6 hours. I look forward what will happen as I evaluate future sessions with those 3 added/changed strategy/general game plan things.
Lesson to learn is to play your game, work on improving as you never know which day or session will turn things around - which is why it is important to keep the grind happening especially in variance format such as spins where multipliers and winning of higher ones affects your win rate greatly.
Graph from yesterday:
Hands to help you develop thinking process and improve
Poker Stars $14.10+$0.90 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 2998340
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
Hero (BB): t845 21.12 BBs
BTN/SB: t655 16.38 BBs
Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with Q♥ Q♠
BTN/SB raises to t80, Hero raises to t185, BTN/SB raises to t290, Hero raises to t845 all in, BTN/SB calls t365 all in
Flop: (t1310) 8♥ A♠ J♦ (2 players - 2 are all in)
Turn: (t1310) 8♦ (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t1310) 4♣ (2 players - 2 are all in)
On purpose I didn't include end result of this hand.
Questions you want to ask in this hand:
1) How does opponent play his range vs smaller 3bet nai sizing? How does he play vs 3x ? How does he play vs 3 bet shove?
2) What is the most +EV play with QQ here in the vacuum? When you have the solution for vacuum keep going vs very specific opponent types (passive, very aggressive, average population tendency etc). When done with that, think of other hands in your range (start with pairs) and go through how to play them in such a spot (hint: having 44 vs QQ is very different and so is 66 vs 99 or TT here).
3) What kind of range do you expect opponent to 4 bet NAI when he has 16bb effective? What about aggro opponent? Passive? When you answer these questions you then need to find ranges that you 5 bet shove here and decide if you ever fold to this 4 bet sizing or if you call and if so with what part of your 3 bet NAI range OOP.
This is enough to get you going, and this is just 1 hand!!!
From this 1 hand you can learn so much about HU dynamics facing 4 bet and constructing your 3 bet nai range vs different opponent types for different effective stack sizes. It will also teach you to understand why you do things specific way instead of clicking buttons like a monkey 
I will post another hand soon to also help you how to continue developing your thinking process.
ICM/cEV hand
Poker Stars $14.10+$0.90 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 3 players - View hand 2998342
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
BTN: t220 7.33 BBs
Hero (SB): t180 6 BBs
BB: t1100 36.67 BBs
Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is SB with 6♦ A♣
BTN raises to t220 all in, Hero calls t165 all in, 1 fold
Flop: (t390) 8♥ T♠ K♣ (2 players - 2 are all in)
Turn: (t390) 7♣ (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t390) 8♠ (2 players - 2 are all in)
Questions to ask:
1. What is BTN's raise calling range here when he is less then 10bb and has another short stack in blinds?
2. Does BTN ever raise fold here aka do we ever have fold equity when we 3 bet shove here?
Based on these 2 questions and answers/predictions you make, your 3 bet shoving range here will vary a lot. This is why it is key to review such hands and see what people show up with. Example: What is their bottom of the calling range ? Based on that adjust your 3 bet shoving range and from that point on you are good to go!
Another HU hand and cool spot to learn from:
Poker Stars $14.10+$0.90 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 2998343
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
Hero (BB): t1086 54.30 BBs
BTN/SB: t414 20.70 BBs
Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 6♠ A♥
BTN/SB calls t10, Hero raises to t60, BTN/SB raises to t414 all in, Hero calls t354
Flop: (t828) Q♦ 9♠ K♣ (2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: (t828) 7♦ (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: (t828) 4♥ (2 players - 1 is all in)
Questions to ask yourself:
1) What range as well as specific hands do you expect opponent to limp/shove on 15s in HU for 21bb effective?
2) What range should you use by default to iso/call limp/shoves in such spot? How and why do you make it tighter or wider?
3) Does opponent limp/shove nut type hands (very strong pairs like JJ+) or he/she plays them with limp/call to extract value post flop?
Here you can learn a lot about such spots. Just 3rd question changes the outlook on this spot greatly. Because if opponent limp/shoves nuts, you need to adjust your iso/call range here greatly. If on the other hand opponent shoves very capped range then you are boss here. So it all depends but you need to play in HRC and learn in those spots how to play vs average player tendency and then practice vs those who are limp/shoving aggro and also those who are super tight with limp/shove.
These kind of spots you won't see much on 15s but I have seen them more on 30s and I expect in future I will see them on 60s+ very frequently.
1) How does opponent play his range vs smaller 3bet nai sizing? How does he play vs 3x ? How does he play vs 3 bet shove?
2) What is the most +EV play with QQ here in the vacuum? When you have the solution for vacuum keep going vs very specific opponent types (passive, very aggressive, average population tendency etc). When done with that, think of other hands in your range (start with pairs) and go through how to play them in such a spot (hint: having 44 vs QQ is very different and so is 66 vs 99 or TT here).
3) What kind of range do you expect opponent to 4 bet NAI when he has 16bb effective? What about aggro opponent? Passive? When you answer these questions you then need to find ranges that you 5 bet shove here and decide if you ever fold to this 4 bet sizing or if you call and if so with what part of your 3 bet NAI range OOP.This is enough to get you going, and this is just 1 hand!!!
From this 1 hand you can learn so much about HU dynamics facing 4 bet and constructing your 3 bet nai range vs different opponent types for different effective stack sizes. It will also teach you to understand why you do things specific way instead of clicking buttons like a monkeyHey there mate! Some really nice food for thought! But I was wondering, how do you answer those questions? Solely on your own? Or do we plug in the info in solvers and see the solution?
Originally posted by MJQuads
1) How does opponent play his range vs smaller 3bet nai sizing? How does he play vs 3x ? How does he play vs 3 bet shove?
2) What is the most +EV play with QQ here in the vacuum? When you have the solution for vacuum keep going vs very specific opponent types (passive, very aggressive, average population tendency etc). When done with that, think of other hands in your range (start with pairs) and go through how to play them in such a spot (hint: having 44 vs QQ is very different and so is 66 vs 99 or TT here).
3) What kind of range do you expect opponent to 4 bet NAI when he has 16bb effective? What about aggro opponent? Passive? When you answer these questions you then need to find ranges that you 5 bet shove here and decide if you ever fold to this 4 bet sizing or if you call and if so with what part of your 3 bet NAI range OOP.This is enough to get you going, and this is just 1 hand!!!
From this 1 hand you can learn so much about HU dynamics facing 4 bet and constructing your 3 bet nai range vs different opponent types for different effective stack sizes. It will also teach you to understand why you do things specific way instead of clicking buttons like a monkeyHey there mate! Some really nice food for thought! But I was wondering, how do you answer those questions? Solely on your own? Or do we plug in the info in solvers and see the solution?
Hey my friend!
Thank you, yes, this is indeed very nice food for thought
To answer those questions you need to play around with different stats and expectations as well as use solvers db analysis and your own logic. Logic part will be icing on the cake because it will teach you why 44 here mathematically potentially is good defend vs nai 4 bet but post flop you are dead with this hand so you will opt on it put it either in 5 bet or fold (if opponent has weak 4 bet range then 5 bet if he always has nuts then fold obviously). Same logic can be applied that if opponent does indeed have 4 bet bluffs in such spot, you can opt in to call with hands like 88+. The reason for this is if you 5 bet shove those, you potentially only get called by nuts hand (lets say that people only call 5 bet with QQ+ AK even though this is not true
So that is where logic part helps. You teach yourself through hand history reviews on your own as well as other people (I strongly suggest Doug Polks Polker hands!!!) how you can logically play each hand from your range. Now, this is not GTO approach by any means!
Solvers will help you understand how you need to balance your range construction both pre and post flop when you put in expected opponents range and style of play. Of course, if you rely purely on solvers to give you solution and you make a mistake predicting the way opponent plays, you are then loosing EV with a lot of plays. Extreme example would be that you expect opponent to always donk on J87 2tone texture so you decide now IP in HU (BTN that is) to check certain Jx hands so that on turn you are not capped with air and weaker sd value hands, but in reality if opponent never donks nor x/r for bluff or extended value, you are loosing tons of EV by not betting your entire Jx range!!! So this is where things do and can go wrong for all of is. Solvers are gret tool to help you with range construction but to maximize use of it and apply the knowledge in game, you need super specific reads for all possible textures. That is why I take notes and tons of them! If the texture is J87 2tone and I get x/r and I shove and opponent folds, I make a huge note x/r bluffs on wet and vs that player totally adjust my range until he/she shows me that they readjusted or that they end up having more x/r value then bluffs in such spot! Same thing goes for any texture, say that texture is 882 and opponent x/r or raises IP, now imagine I have strong enough sd value hand (not going to list specific hands now but you should know what they are), and we get to river and I see that opponent for example x/r or r IP with hand like K6o. I would then make a note and write x/r or R on dry paired with K high (sdv into bluff). So that opponent shoved me that he x/r or r IP sd value hand and I now know how to construct my bet/defending range and with what hands to continue immediately post flop and which ones to use to stack off.
Hope that makes sense!
Use your intuition backed up with db analysis and solvers. Practice as many potential scenarios and expectations as possible. Learn in real time to take and check very important notes such as ones mentioned above. Then over time, you will be ready to kick anyone's ass on any limit.
In 2017 I will cover 20 post flop textures with range vs range and do super in depth db analysis for both 15s and likely 30s (either with fellow 30s regs or with coach). During that studying period I expect to discover some brutal results vs expected strategy from certain scenarios that it will help and boost my game tremendously. I will also update my HUD for 3/3 then to improve my edge even more in that area (couple more stats left to add!).Anyways, do let me know if there are questions. I always try to help as much as I can as I am firm believer that happiness comes from helping and giving not taking.
Enjoy remaining of the week on and off the tables!
Quick update
Things are taking of for Thailand. By the end of this week we will book accommodation for 3 of us. Initially I planed to spend 150 euros less for accommodation but it seems like I will need to readjust to new circumstances.
The way things look with other life things is also very financially dependent. There is my gf's bday, saints day celebrations, new years, Christmas, weeding and godfathers birthday. All this happening in next 6 weeks for which I will need to have a lot of money for.
So all this leads to following decision. By the end of the year starting now I will aim to play 150 hours of poker. There is 24 days left, I plan to use 4 of those 24 for new years, girlfriends birthday and 2 days to regenerate. So 20 days to grind 150 hours of Spins on 15s. 7.5 hours per day grind.
To keep myself accountable I will do super quick updates daily with just number of hours I played.
Let the grind begin!
8.38 hours/150 hours
1033$/3000$
Graph:
Played 3 or 4 10x games, won 1 but in all of them was favorite in HU and lost with better hands to 2 or 3 outers when I was CL! Also, from 270$ down during the day, ended in 90$ profit which is very good. Final 2 sessions of the day, my PT4 hud stopped working so I was playing using notes and color coding. One of those sessions my friend elpsycho was sweating and we had lots of fun!
Tomorrow will go for 8 more hours of grind. I am now at 1033$ profit from 3000$ set with my friend in 30ish hours of grind post RB.
News - we booked and payed for accommodation in Thailand, 280 euro per person very close to beach and bangla road. Now only thing left to do is get visa and I am ready to go (and of course grind like a boss and make money before which is crucial!)
BTW, today besides grinding 8.38 hours, I taught 1 guitar/music lesson as well. So super productive day.
Canceled all my CrossFit trainings for the future. I will stay in every single day and grind until I hit that 3k target and do steady 8 hours.
Enjoy remaining of your week on and off the tables!
Quick update
Yesterday had a talk with my gf. Told her about period that is happening now in my life and how much I need to put time into grinding to make it to Thailand. That is reality and she either has to accept it or move on, there is no alternative here for me. She was very supportive and offered to come today read some book while I am grinding. It will be interesting for sure as I plan to put 8 hours again today and every next day as well.
Yesterday really enjoyed such long grind. There were sessions with tons of coolers as well as runs of games where regs and recreational players were making ridiculously light calls vs 3 barrel shoves. I guess that is why my ROI is still +EV and why this limit is 15s not 100s. By the end of the day things got better. Really look forward to adventure today will bring, 8 sessions and over 250 games is a very nice mental game, endurance and tactical test.
In 2017, I will strongly consider joining successful Spins stable to coach players up to 15s and to also work with crushers from 100s to move up. Also, I am deeply considering running some challenge with 250 hours grind per month or so in 2017. Finally, I will consider continuing staking deal with my friend even after this 3k target is complete since at this point financially it is huge relief not to worry about BR but rather to focus on all life things going on that are more urgent.
It is cool to see that gf supports me in this 150 hours grind thing by the end of the year and I will definitely do this more in the future with months connected with 250 hours grind to maintain endurance and stamina.
As a side note, with this high grind, even with current EV without any improving (which is not possible) I can easily make over 5k per month from poker alone. I just have to sit down and grind 8 hours per day. Just and 8 hours being the key here
About to hit the tables - see you there
Today's graph with hours
8.37 hours
Graph:
Played very bad through out the day, some sort of tilt happening due to loosing 4 times 10x while I was ahead 3 times in HU. That affected me a lot + again I had huge problem with my HUD from PT4. It stopped working on numerous occasions and last 3 sessions I played without it.
Tomorrow need to find a way to fix PT4 and HUD for good. Not sure what is causing the issue of it to stop working but I have to deal with it otherwise there will be some major spew happening and lots of edges missed - just like today!
Good news is that I cleared 50$ bonus and am around 60% completing 90$ one. Tomorrow 8 more hours + 1 guitar lesson.
Enjoy your weekend on and off the tables !
P.S. 16.75/150 hours completed