Making a living with STT SNGs

Originally posted by tonypmm

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
know that I can print money on 15s

This is the best confidence booster that I can think of You're not afraid of things going wrong on 30s-100s because you know that, even in the worst case, you'll still be able to make a living by playing 15s.

And that's actually why it's always recommended to start from the micros when you're switching to a new poker format - you need to be sure that you're beating at least one of its stakes confidently and with an hourly winrate high enough to afford a living. Then you can take shots whenever you feel skilled enough for them (providing that you put some small bankroll aside that you'll use for the micros in the worst case), with no fear of hunger.

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
it stops me to be 100% productive

When I search for the keyphrase 'comfort zone' on this forum, the majority of the recent posts that the search gives me are yours. You see, I don't buy into this 'always try to leave comfort zone' paradigm. Comfort and challenge are two equally important states that should alternate, not reject each other. Being too self-critical can be as harmful as not being self-critical at all. It's better to be 90% productive 100% of the time than to be 100% productive 85% of the time while ruminating about your imperfections 15% of the time (excluding the time when you're actually busy with fixing them). Give yourself some love and comfort once in a while.

I like the way you think Tony.
Yeah 90% 100% is better then 100% 85% of the time for most of the things. I would however argue that 2nd one bring different values if we are talking about focus on task at hand. So studying with 100% focus 85% of time is better then 90% of focus 100% of time, in my book. More improvement will happen that way I am sure. With grind is similar, 10% extra focus makes up a lot of edges and spots to increase and milk out extra ROI.

I had my time off on Thailand, also was sick for some day in February and now in March having 4 days off or so. Not cool. I like planned vacation or here and there off days for celebrating like last Friday and Saturday for example. But don't like it at all when things suck with my time management on days where I planed to do my best but I end up delivering like 50-70% of what I anticipated. That is just not enough effort due to priorities wrong and time wasters. So need to keep working on that and eventually grind will click full time with very steady hours per month (150 and more even later).

Originally posted by cindichang23
All of the above has certainly cleared thing's up for me I didnt like to ask how you made that much with 0% ROI, do you switch rooms often then? putting the largest deposit possbile in means off the bonus's and etc?

I have a special Asian girl working in Poker Stars and she always sets me up with huge multipliers + sets up all the cards for me to win. Other then that, I am bad reg, bad reg loosing player.

Very productive coaching session today with my friend.

We split it in half doing theory and live play. In theory part I mentioned 3 hand types that I have problems playing post flop which I feel cause me most uncertainty and where I am unsure on different run outs on several or even most textures how to proceed.
Good news is that several things thanks to 1 texture in depth study I got some doubts cleared but still it is far from perfect because there is lots of things to account for when making decisions for turn and river.
One thing that I am certain is that my EV from these 3 hand categories is not positive and once I learn how to play them profitably on any limit, my overall EV will go up as well.

2nd half of the session was live play, there was only several interesting spots so nothing major to discuss there. Good news there is that we marked several spots for texture studying.

Last night I took 2 buy ins for 60s and 2 buy ins for 100s to take shots and both shots failed. On 60s I lost bvb with KK vs AJo on 6x game, pitty
Decided to take this shot due to having over 500 euros beside 3100$ before taking the shots. So I can always cover it if it goes wrong. Potential downside is far lesser then upside basically.

Back to 3 tabling 15s, working on steady grind and improving those 3 hand types to improve my EV in both HU and 3 way game.

For graphs I will wait probably middle of the year or end of it and then request full year to get sent to me so that I can just show all the graphs at once.
Positive things that I am seeing while 3 tabling is that my red line is positive, my post flop is better, my pre flop improved a lot but I still have leaks that I need to fix and they are on very specific textures for several hand categories and then there are a lot of textures where I have same problem with those 3 hand categories. After I resolve these doubts and improve, I will work on balance and exploiting people further because to play 60s and 100s full time this will be next step (understanding all the edges, understanding textures range vs range, understanding how to defend, when to attack, what run outs are good for each range, effective stacks, meta game, reads, opponent type etc).

Enjoy remaining of March and I will see you at the tables

So you feel better? Great! I´m fine too now, stomach flu is horrible but goes away quickly. I guess I already told you about the stress hormone cortisol and the immune system, but I won´t go into detail because this is a poker blog and not a medicine blog :f_ugly:. Anyways, one should be careful with stress because one should never underestimate the effect of the psyche on the body.

Originally posted by Primrose6789
I won´t go into detail because this is a poker blog and not a medicine blog How about making a blog yourself about how medicine applies to poker?

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
Last night I took 2 buy ins for 60s and 2 buy ins for 100s to take shots and both shots failed.

I don't understand your need to take shots at two buy-in levels at once, instead of 60s exclusively. Are you going to skip grinding 60s altogether and move up from 30s straight to 100s at some time? I don't think so. Hence it's a bit too early for you to worry about whether you're currently good enough for 100s.

Besides, the observation of high multiplier games in the lobby (which are usually 6x on 100s so not that different from 2x-4x ones in terms of population tendencies) should give you enough info without the need to risk your own money to find it out. That's a slight advantage of Stars over 888, where games can't be observed unless a 100x+ game is currently running.

Originally posted by tonypmm

Originally posted by Primrose6789
I won´t go into detail because this is a poker blog and not a medicine blog How about making a blog yourself about how medicine applies to poker?

LOL :f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin: I already have my little diary and Pedja needs from time to time a nice medical advice from little Primmy.

Originally posted by tonypmm

Originally posted by Primrose6789
I won´t go into detail because this is a poker blog and not a medicine blog How about making a blog yourself about how medicine applies to poker?

I agree with Tony, I would be interested reading and learning about medicine effects on poker players.

Originally posted by tonypmm

Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
Last night I took 2 buy ins for 60s and 2 buy ins for 100s to take shots and both shots failed.

I don't understand your need to take shots at two buy-in levels at once, instead of 60s exclusively. Are you going to skip grinding 60s altogether and move up from 30s straight to 100s at some time? I don't think so. Hence it's a bit too early for you to worry about whether you're currently good enough for 100s.

Besides, the observation of high multiplier games in the lobby (which are usually 6x on 100s so not that different from 2x-4x ones in terms of population tendencies) should give you enough info without the need to risk your own money to find it out. That's a slight advantage of Stars over 888, where games can't be observed unless a 100x+ game is currently running.

Its quite easy to understand. Its +EV to take shots when your BR allows you to do that. I had 500+ euro above planed starting BR + made 8 buy ins post RB in 2-3 hours 3 tabling 15s so decided to take 2 buy ins each for 60s and 100s. I really don't mind loosing the money on any stake. I consider it all part of learning and growth experience.
In regards to what you mentioned about skipping stakes or running through them, at this point it is very hard to tell you exactly what I will do. The reason is simple. While I am fixing my leaks and improving my game plan in all areas, I am also studying at the same time things that are part of regular game plan for ANY STAKE meaning that regardless if I play 30s or 100s, chances of getting exploited are minimal for me - because I will balance my ranges well both pre and post flop. Of course, level of play or playing field on 30s vs 100s is very different, there is likely tons of regs on 30s who are from programs using tons of charts or really all kinds of players, on 100s there is also regs but they are just much better post flop and understand range vs range better. So my strategy is to play 15s, build BR and take shots on higher stakes where I can boost my hourly significantly, those stakes are 60s and 100s not 30s. Ideally, I want to play those limits sometime next year when I feel my knowledge is super strong in all areas I want and I have sick BR to play them, until then I will just set up super low stop losses like 2 to 5 buy ins once per month and more then once if I win some huge multiplier from 100x above. Of course, mixing 30s with 15s will happen naturally and like you mentioned, I will very likely take the regular road of climbing the stakes that way. I am just saying that for my life expected financial goals in 2017, it makes sense to play 15s, print money and work hard to improve as a player while taking short stabs at higher stakes where with some run good I can keep playing them more hours and grab invaluable experience how regs play there certain textures, how they react to certain betting actions, how light/wide they call in certain spots, how they defend on certain textures, how their range looks like in specific spots... You are right, I can observe games and take notes. I would rather participate, take notes, have those HHs saved for later analysis and also have chance to win a lot of money in the process.

As far as how good I am currently, I don't like setting any limit as a guide for my knowledge. I know my strengths and weaknesses. When I feel my weaknesses are removed (biggest ones) as well as doubt for certain spots (not too many which is great!!!) then I will feel ready to play any limit and anyone because that means that I am confident in my game plans for both pre and post flop, I understand textures and run outs, I understand how to adapt and adjust to different opponent types in game.
Finally, goal this year is to get to 30$ hourly and then go for 35$ hourly. If I am capable to go higher, I will keep pushing. Whether that means I will get to 40-45-50-60$ hourly and end up playing 60s by the end of the year full time - time will tell.
For now key things are steady grind, studying textures where I have trouble, removing doubt with 3 hand categories how to play them, working more on balance in certain spots in my game as well as exploiting certain limit(s) tendencies and over time right hourly will come.

There is also another road to take which is to stay on 15s and add 4th table in April on. From what I am seeing in March and from February on really, my red line is not BE but positive vs what it used to be in 2016, also my cEV has improved and future hourly along with it. So 4 tabling now vs 4 tabling in 2016 I am 100% sure would bring me higher cEV and EV hourly post RB. Definitely want to test this for 1 to 2 months, and if that shows that 4 tabling 15s I have anywhere from 30-35$ hourly post RB, I will feel like I have hit my hourly goal and that I can focus on progressively taking shots at higher stakes (aggro BR for higher stakes, 5 buy ins shots, 10 buy ins with all the life things sorted in 2017 for 60s and 100s but for 30s more often 10 buy ins shots).

That is my 2 cents on it. Time will show of course true EV for my win rates but I feel like I am 250% better player now then I was in 2016, that I can guarantee, so results should be better as well.

Originally posted by Primrose6789

Originally posted by tonypmm

Originally posted by Primrose6789
I won´t go into detail because this is a poker blog and not a medicine blog How about making a blog yourself about how medicine applies to poker?

LOL :f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin: I already have my little diary and Pedja needs from time to time a nice medical advice from little Primmy.

Absolutely 100% true. Since beginning of the year I got sick 2 or 3 times so that's once per month average so far. Your advice is more then welcome Prim!

Pedja,

You might have a good point here because the softness of the Spin & Go pool varies depending on the time - at the weekend, you're probably going to have a decent enough ROI at 100s that will compensate for the variance.

But if you take shots on weekdays like Tuesday, you need to have a really compelling reason to believe that your expected ROI at the current moment is going to be higher than usual, e.g. the player pool is softer than usual.

E.g. you can make this conclusion if you notice via high multiplier observation or a few test games that there's a high chance that some of the best regs are offline or if you notice that your favourite maniac is online and playing at many tables at once so you can meet him with a high probability. In other words, you have to somehow select the best time to load a game, which is barely possible in Spins after Spinwiz was banned.

I believe that life and especially poker has optimal substructure - in order to maximise your happiness at some certain future moment, you need to make the currently best choice at every present moment (the choice that maximises the so-called 'value function', which is the predicted EV of the end happiness at that future moment). At every given moment, there's only one best choice.

The choice does depend on a lot of factors, not only the game softness and the bankroll size. You might be in a tremendous shape when you feel like you'd crush 100s for a cEV of 60 even when the best regs are sitting, that can also be a reason for a shot. Or, conversely, if you're in a bad shape or feeling sleepy, definitely don't take shots at that time.

Hey Ivi, i have posted one hand history from 18mans where i would like to hear your thoughts. Please check it out in my blog - https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=2613211#post2613211

Anyone who is also into SNGs or 18man SNGs welcome to discuss!

Jaunais

Will think about that medicine-blog, guys but I´m afraid I won´t have time to maintain two blogs, but let´s see....

Originally posted by tonypmm
Pedja,

You might have a good point here because the softness of the Spin & Go pool varies depending on the time - at the weekend, you're probably going to have a decent enough ROI at 100s that will compensate for the variance.

But if you take shots on weekdays like Tuesday, you need to have a really compelling reason to believe that your expected ROI at the current moment is going to be higher than usual, e.g. the player pool is softer than usual.

E.g. you can make this conclusion if you notice via high multiplier observation or a few test games that there's a high chance that some of the best regs are offline or if you notice that your favourite maniac is online and playing at many tables at once so you can meet him with a high probability. In other words, you have to somehow select the best time to load a game, which is barely possible in Spins after Spinwiz was banned.

I believe that life and especially poker has optimal substructure - in order to maximise your happiness at some certain future moment, you need to make the currently best choice at every present moment (the choice that maximises the so-called 'value function', which is the predicted EV of the end happiness at that future moment). At every given moment, there's only one best choice.

The choice does depend on a lot of factors, not only the game softness and the bankroll size. You might be in a tremendous shape when you feel like you'd crush 100s for a cEV of 60 even when the best regs are sitting, that can also be a reason for a shot. Or, conversely, if you're in a bad shape or feeling sleepy, definitely don't take shots at that time.

Yeah Tony, things you say do make a lot of sense.
It is always better to take shots on weekends due to more recreational players everywhere, however for Spins I don't think that factor is decisive as in other formats because there is so many players playing the game and random seating allows you to play mix games always. So in other words, not worried on 100s or 60s about seating arrangement, should be mixed most of the times. When I took shot on 60s winning those 40 buy ins, I had a lot of recreational players there in my games and it wasn't weekend. It was Thursday. Go figure...
But yeah, you are right about 60cEV part and moving up when it makes sense to move up. Right now I feel good staying on 15s, putting in the volume 3 tabling, grabbing large sample (200 hours 3 tabling for example) to see what my cEV will be. I will likely after that go for 4 tabling again 15s to notice difference in win rate. Ideally I am looking to beat 15s 3 tabling with 70cEV or higher as well as beat them 4 tabling with 60cEV. Those are very nice and strong numbers before going to 30s full time. In the meanwhile shot taking 30s will be OK but with only 5 buy ins when I either win huge multiplier or when from profit split I have made 1.5k so that shot taking is only 10% of my winnings not more. I like these rules and they are very good to move up, improve, take shots frequently while also saving minimum 90% of the winnings while having chance to hit bigger and win more as well as move to new stake FT (think about 40 buy ins upswing in 5-10 hours on 30s, that would allow me to play there a lot more hours and in the process very likely keep my hourly if 3 tabling higher then vs 15s).

Regarding happiness factor, I feel right now very happy about where I am standing in 2017. I have month and a half or so left in a deal with my friend after which I will very likely continue working with him (studying together) while also doing joint project of ours. My knowledge is evolving and improving which is most positive thing. My range vs range and hand reading has gone up. I still miss spots and miss play hands but now I do things I haven't done in 2016 at all and I do a lot of the subtle things that add up to huge change. My HU game plan has also evolved. My DB analysis helped me understand how to play and adjust vs field as well as different texture studying how to see range vs range. Again, there is a lot of work to be done. Each effective stack has its own way of getting played; each hand type has different EV between betting or checking for example; each texture has its own things going for it and each opponent has tons of leaks (at least on 15s). So my goal is to in next month and a half, make as much as possible $ on 15s, take it and invest it in PIO + remaining of it use for BR's (mine and my best friends) and put aside at least 1 more month in advance for rent (to have living expenses covered until 15th of June).
This approach will allow me to play very stress free for 1 more month, have strong BRs and just focus on studying textures DAILY (1 hour!) while grinding 5 hours at least. Everything else will be far 3rd priority. Grinding 5 hours, studying 1 hour in PIO will be must do things for me as soon as I get extra money for it.
Great news is that I am right now around 3.5k$ all my own money. My BR will feel safe with 4.5k (because of potential 4 tabling from May or so) so that means in next 57 days I need to make about 2k post RB to have money for remaining of BR as well as PIO and extra rent. I think this is more then achievable. In my head I will be just focusing on grinding and reviewing hands with my friend, finding leaks and working on strategy to improve it.

As I said before, time will say what the best approach was. I am enjoying the process of improvement and I very much am great full that I am able to make such a good living playing poker for past 4.5 years. This year I want to push myself like I have done it never before. That means I will have a month of 10+ hours doing poker, studying and grinding, proving to myself that I can sustain high level of game with so many hours. That is one of the ultimate goals to printing money as well as improving and moving up stakes.

Originally posted by Jaunais
Hey Ivi, i have posted one hand history from 18mans where i would like to hear your thoughts. Please check it out in my blog - https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=2613211#post2613211

Anyone who is also into SNGs or 18man SNGs welcome to discuss!

Jaunais

Hi Jouanis,

I will check your hand analysis sometime in the future.
I heard great things about Hand2Note software. Will likely test it and if shows that its great for Spins switch to it.

GL HF

Originally posted by Primrose6789
Will think about that medicine-blog, guys but I´m afraid I won´t have time to maintain two blogs, but let´s see....

2 blogs would probably be too much IMO but you make the choice that works for you. I will definitely read those advice

About today

After several days, I finally put in 5+ hours of grind. I didn't teach guitar and music today but had coaching session with both my friend crusher in the morning and my best friend.
So that makes it probably 7-8 hours if not more in poker today - hence 1:17am now and up since 9am.

I had marked at least 10 interesting hands to share with my best friends and then about 5-6 for analysis with my friend to discuss EV spots.

One thing I am proud about today in particular is my turn play. I am getting much better at it and I expect that in future days/weeks/months it will add very large edge to my game.
I always had strong idea how to play river, flop was in the dark here and there but turn was in the most doubt. I still have a lot of work to do there but I am liking how I played a lot of turns today and how that got me extra EV.

There were for sure miss played hands, those were marked as well. Important to see on what kind of texture and what hand category. Take note not to repeat it in such spots and move on.

Tomorrow I don't have guitar and music lessons as well as no coaching session of any sort. So I will aim to play as much as possible while disabling distractions like FB, YouTube and depending on focus for 3 tabling have TV shows in the background or not.

Enjoy remaining of the week on and off the tables.

Today and general things in 2017 in regards to game

Played over 1 hour today and marked couple of super interesting spots for turn and river run outs for sizing considerations.
Now will go and buy laptop charger that has Serbian electricity vs USA one that I use. With USA one I use adapter and contact is never good so my laptop interupts charging and constantly clicks. My brother found someone that sells Serbian plug for my Lenovo laptop and I will go get it now.

I read my accountability post for 2017 and I would like to reflect briefly on things that I set out to do in this year.
My cEV is already higher then in 2016 but my hourly is not simply because I am playing less tables (February played 2 tables, now playing 3). So in order to get back on track with hourly of 30-35$ win rate for 2017, I will need to either move up to 30s and 3 table with strong win rate or 4 table 15s with 57-62cEV. I feel 4 tabling 15s will be easier vs 3 tabling 30s for obvious reasons like regs on 30s have more solid game plans and better post flop knowledge. So 4 tabling 15s for hourly is very likely better and more +EV road to take to print money.
So with that all being said, I will likely starting May or mid to late April add 4th table to track how my cEV will be in relation to last year. Anything from 57 cEV up is excellent because it gets the job done for financial goals said.

Study wise from accountability thread I am thrilled so far what I accomplished. From December to now I did DB analysis for 15s, found what opponents do for specific spots and I adjusted several game plans from different positions based on it. In the meanwhile worked on my worst game parts, things where I was loosing most evbb/100, and after fixing those I also worked on A game (hand reading more and doing range vs range in PIO). As far as textures go, I haven't done nor covered 20 of them but thanks to doing 6 of them I have great understanding how SIMILAR textures are played range vs range with bet sizing, run outs and OOP as well. Of course, I still have textures where I am feeling good about flop but not great on turns for example or overall how to play in games vs not to be exploited.
So studying is definitely paying off, my BB in HU went up from December , my SB 3 way is excellent, my BB in 3 way is up but my SB in HU can be and will be greater and then BTN 3way can also go higher. Once these things are fixed as well as more range vs range hand reading with PIO and applying in games, I expect to go with 4 tabling to really high cEV and hourly.

Realistically speaking, I can't expect very high cEV (80 3 tabling) until I resolve ALL THE DOUBTS about textures where I lack knowledge as well as spots (SRP vs 3bnai vs ISO pots = for all effective blinds). Until then up to 60-65 cEV is realistic expectation 4 tabling 15s.

Look forward getting back to 4 tabling and in the meanwhile investing in PIO or Simplepostflop. I enjoy both software's, for simplicity I think Simplepostflop is better so I might go with that one instead of PIO.

Yesterday grinded 4 - 5 hours total. Got side tracked with laptop battery charger, a girl and some basketball that I bet on.
Charger didn't work out. Had to take taxi go to woman's place, she had wrong charger ready, then got back home. Just there I lost at least 40ish minutes.
The girl story is simple. I was making dinner, she kept messaging me sending me pictures and some videos so I likely had 1.5 hours invested there - time that could have gone to grinding ofc ♦
Basketball game, I was in doubt until the very end whether or not to bet the game because home team had almost 1st team away due to injury and suspension and away team needed win but had key play maker doubt full for full game. Considering that home team has very strong tradition and is always in top 8 (this season they under performed = variance, regular stuff) and that away only recently started to play outside of Serbia, I went with 100$ bet on 1 for betting odd 2.15. Game in question was Barcelona vs Crvena Zvezda or as I call them FMP.

I marked a lot of hands yesterday while grinding as there were some very close EV spots between checking and betting certain street. I also miss played at least 3-4 hands that I remember, some due to bad sizing setting up, some due to just wrong choice for specific spots. I also had several spectacular hands that I am very proud of in particularly because I was 100% sure there with my hand reading and with what opponent has and reacts to vs certain bet size.

Overall C game at times with those spew hands, A game on same but on average I would say B- was yesterday.
Profit wise I made 250$ post RB on Spins and 115$ betting = sweet deal.

Today coaching session with my friend, then going for coffee with best friend Phuketinho, will grind in coffee shop while awaiting for laptop charger. In the afternoon a friend is coming for couple of hours from Belgrade so will meet up with him.

Look forward to the session and day overall!

Bankroll Challenge

Dear readers and followers,

Today I have exciting news. I decided to participate in Poker Strategy's Bankroll Challenge. I was thinking hard about my financial goals for this year and their relation with my grinding. Since I exited make up, finished deal with my friend, have money to play on my own now and still have deal going with my friend crusher for coaching, I saw great opportunity to push and motivate myself and set bankroll goal by the end of this year.

Right now, I cashed out my euro account savings and just left $ BR.
Starting now, I have 2910$ as starting bankroll.
My goal during next 39 weeks which is exactly until end of this year is to have 25000$ on my Poker Stars Balance.
I have never had such large bankroll and think that would be very cool to have because at very least it would allow me to mix 60s and 100s in 2018 which would be phenomenal.

During the course of this year as you all have been reading lately, I will take shots at higher limits then 15$ Spins. I will also from April go to 4 tabling in order to reach this amount sooner and more realistically (to increase my hourly to 30-35$). I will aim to grind 150 hours remaining 9 months each of the months. It will be tons of interesting spots, amazing call downs and plays, spews, mental game struggles, bankroll swings, but I am very much looking forward to it.
By the end of it all, I expect to finish this year way stronger then I started it and equipped with both knowledge and BR to play higher stakes then 15s and 30s.

Starting BR: 2910$
Target BR: 25000$
39 weeks remaining until the end of the year.

Lets get it!

P.S. I will take shots which will greatly affect the EV of my BR and hourly + cash outs from winnings that I will use for life expenses. So to get to this amount I need to save about 22k$ in next 9 months which is roughly 2.5k$ per month savings each of the 9 remaining months!