I played two sessions (today and yesterday) and at first the sessions started pretty good, yesterday I lost a few dollars and after reviewing the session I noticed that I really need to call more cbets, that was my biggest mistake, my redline just crashed yesterday, -30BB/100.
So I adjusted that today and I really found that the population tendecy of NL5 is barreling flop and turn with a whole broad selection and don't barrel the river cause then they got scared, so that improved my winrate, however I have a new spot which in general should be one of the most profitable situations in poker but I seem to lose money in these spots last 2 weeks (sample size 31 hands), the spot is flopping a set...
First the winning hands:
Spoiler
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 181 BB
SB: 136 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BB: 98.6 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 6.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
UTG: 115.2 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 22)
MP: 33.4 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
CO: 165.2 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 4♠ 4♦
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (10.4 BB, 3 players) 3♣ A♠ 4♣
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets 5.6 BB, fold, fold
Spoiler
Hero wins 10 BB
Rake paid 0.4 BB
A whole lot of situations like this: Super excited you flop middle set in a multiway pot... However nobody calling although there is an ace which is in a lot of opponents ranges, and a flus draw and a straight draw... Just bad luck. This is how most of the pots ended.
Then you have situations like these, which makes the micros super profitable:
Spoiler
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 117.6 BB (VPIP: 32.35, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 35)
SB: 105.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: 166.6 BB
UTG: 254.2 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
Hero (MP): 103.8 BB
CO: 114.8 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6♥ 6♦
UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold
Flop: (10.4 BB, 3 players) K♠ T♥ 6♣
UTG bets 6.2 BB, Hero calls 6.2 BB, fold
Turn: (22.8 BB, 2 players) 5♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 12 BB, UTG calls 12 BB
River: (46.8 BB, 2 players) T♦
UTG checks, Hero bets 30 BB, UTG calls 30 BB
Spoiler
Hero shows 6♥ 6♦ (Full House, Sixes full of Tens)
(Pre 53%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
UTG mucks Q♠ K♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 47%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 102.4 BB
Rake paid 4.4 BB
Question, could I extract more value? Quite a small pot I think for my boat. I can't really raise flop because there are too little bluffs I could do that with (I guess). But ofcourse the population tendency to overvalue TPGK can be enjoyed in such situations.
So the problem with winning hands is winning quite small pots (only 6% over 100 BB pot).
The losing hands:
Here I also have 2 examples:
Spoiler
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
SB: 85.2 BB
BB: 103 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG: 421.2 BB (VPIP: 12.24, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 50)
Hero (MP): 199 BB
CO: 112.2 BB (VPIP: 43.48, PFR: 26.09, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 23)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 3♠ 3♥
fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, CO calls 2.4 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold
Flop: (8.2 BB, 3 players) K♦ 9♣ 3♣
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, fold, SB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 7 BB
Turn: (32.2 BB, 2 players) K♥
SB checks, Hero bets 17 BB, SB raises to 34 BB, Hero raises to 133.8 BB, SB calls 36.8 BB and is all-in
River: (173.8 BB, 2 players) 4♥
Spoiler
SB shows 9♦ 9♥ (Full House, Nines full of Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows 3♠ 3♥ (Full House, Threes full of Kings)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
SB wins 166.6 BB
Rake paid 7.2 BB
His line just tells us how strong he is, so I knew he was not bluffing, then the problem is, what could he be trapping us with? Would he do this with AK? If yes then it's a clear call, but I don't think that is true, in hindsight I think he only takes this line with 99, K9, KK, K3. I worked on laying down more hands on the river but this one, I couldn't lay down.
And the last situation (more occuring than previous one):
Spoiler
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 121.8 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 11)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 20)
MP: 116.2 BB (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 48)
CO: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♦ 9♥
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB
Flop: (5.2 BB, 2 players) 9♠ 3♦ T♠
BB checks, Hero bets 2.8 BB, BB calls 2.8 BB
Turn: (10.8 BB, 2 players) K♠
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BB raises to 18.4 BB, Hero calls 12.4 BB
River: (47.6 BB, 2 players) 5♠
BB checks, Hero checks
Spoiler
BB shows 7♣ 6♠ (Flush, King High)
(Pre 17%, Flop 18%, Turn 25%)
Hero mucks 9♦ 9♥ (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 83%, Flop 82%, Turn 75%)
BB wins 45.6 BB
Rake paid 2 BB
On the turn the flush hits, on the river the fourth card to the flush hits, I wouldn't play this hand any further, luckily he checked to me, and I had the 'nut-no flush', no point in bluffing here.
The problem is that all these small pocket pairs only hit their set 12% of the time, so every time I don't hit I have a small loss as well (except when the PFR is passive), so with those 88% ~3BB losses and then 12% not even winning that much, I don't know if I can still profitably call all those pocket pairs or if I should scrap out some of them, for example if I go 66+ then situations like that first losing hand will occur less frequently, however if you look at the second winning hand I do think that they can be called profitably as people overvalue TPGK hands a lot.







