Hi everyone!
I'm doing post play hand analysis for a while now but only recently got into the more mathematical juiciness of the subject.
Previously I've mostly been doing hand and range analysis and thinking of how different villains probably would hit the flop based on their actions so far.
But now that I've got a few more formulas at my disposal and I can actually calculate the $EV for certain situations there's a whole new world for me to explore. However there's still loads of hands where I'm uncertain about my play (mainly because determining $EV is far more difficult if there are no shoves) and I wanted to get feedback on them on a forum for a long time so I've finally decided to post some here.
I'm not that experienced with SnGs and Poker all together so don't expect to see the best hands here ![]()
The first hand I'd like to have some feedback on is this 9-max SnG (there's not really any stats on the players since I exported the hand histories only to review them on my laptop):
888 Poker - 30/60 Ante 5 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 29.75 BB
BTN: 60.42 BB
SB: 17.92 BB
Hero (BB): 20.25 BB
UTG: 36.75 BB
UTG+1: 22.58 BB
MP: 9.92 BB
MP+1: 27.42 BB
8 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.17 BB) Hero has A♦ 2♦
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3.33 BB, SB calls 2.33 BB
Flop: (7.33 BB, 2 players) 9♥ T♠ 3♠
SB checks, Hero bets 4.17 BB, fold
Hero wins 7.33 BB
I thought that when the SB completed he probably had something like a speculative hand or a weak pair and wanted to see a cheap flop. I decided to 3bet and try to get him off such holdings because I'd also have position on him post flop and a suited Ace with straight and flush potential seemed to justify that play for me in that moment.
He called which was a bit surprising but I didn't think that he was trying to trap me with something like KK or AA because in the micros I've seen people call big 3bets with 98o. So maybe he just got really sticky with whatever mediocre holding he had.
The flop didn't really look that scary and when villain checked to me I took a stab since he was showing weakness pre and post flop while I was doing the exact opposite.
My plan was that in case he still calls I'd just be done with the hand unless I improved to something like 2 pair.
My concern with this hand though is this: There were still 8 people in the tournament, the blinds were still somewhere in the low to mid range and after my final bet I had put a third of my stack at risk.
Do you think this play was justified at this point in the tournament or should I have rather just checked preflop and give up the additional fold equity at the post flop stab for more pot control? And what do you think about my bet sizes?
Happy to hear your thoughts