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NL16 nut trips vs river minraise on paired board

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Laci24
Joined: 07.10.2009

Hi guys

It was one of my hardest river decision to me in my downswing. It looks like I became calling station :pcuser: vs fishy river actions... This hand is the classic example..
I played it 2 days ago and yesterday I have checked again the population reads vid from weasel. He told the turn x/minraise is nearly always the nuts... So, I think it can be totally valid for river.
What is the bottom of river bet/call range vs minraise?

Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

SB: $19.26 (120.4 bb) 4,3k hands, 47 / 7 / 5,9, WTSD 30 WondSD 43, WWSF 46,
flop xr and raises 16, river bet 53, river Afq 47, river raises and x raises 19

Hero (BB): $18.06 (112.9 bb)
MP: $15.40 (96.3 bb)
CO: $7.16 (44.8 bb)
BTN: $27.46 (171.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♠: 5♥:
3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $0.64, SB calls $0.48

Flop: ($1.28) 5♣: 8♣: 6♣: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40

I felt the check and third pot bet for EQ protection can be similar. How do you think?

Turn: ($2.08) T♥: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.08) 5♠: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1

Results:

Spoiler

$6.08 pot ($0.27 rake)
Final Board: 5♣: 8♣: 6♣: T♥: 5♠:
SB showed A♣: 9♣: and won $5.81 ($2.77 net)
Hero mucked A♠: 5♥: and lost (-$3.04 net)


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would most liley size up the Cbet a little bit to around half pot to protect the hand a little bit more against a passive villain. On the river villains check/min raise is suspicious, but tough to fold trips with in mind you need to win the hand around 16,5% of the time to make a call profitable.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Laci24
Joined: 07.10.2009

Originally posted by SDK1987
I would most liley size up the Cbet a little bit to around half pot to protect the hand a little bit more against a passive villain. On the river villains check/min raise is suspicious, but tough to fold trips with in mind you need to win the hand around 16,5% of the time to make a call profitable.

Cheers,
SDK1987

hi

Thank you for the analysis :f_thumbsup:


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LeRoux90
Joined: 24.08.2015

He told the turn x/minraise is nearly always the nuts...

There's a bunch of recreative who min raise without nuts, can't fold our top range. He can easily have some 5x that we beat, easy call river imo. Flop i think we can bet more, we don't really want him to call there since we'll have to check check or fold to a bet most of the time turn/river. If he's passive post-flop and give up bluff spots then i think the small bet is maybe better


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