Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

Question: How many hands does it take to break even at NL 50?

Answer: 16,698.

That's right. After playing 16,698 hands over the course of 60 hours (2 and a half entire days of my life - or the equivalent of 4 days if you count waking hours only), I have achieved a winrate of 0.04BB/100 for a total profit of... wait for it... $3.54!!!

That's 6 cents an hour, I'll have you know.

How does a rational person react to this news? He says, "this Poker lark is actually, unequivocally, a total, complete and utter waste of time".

How does an irrational fool named 'Tim64' react to this news? He says, "Whoooooooooooopeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!! The downswing's over at laaaaast!!! NL100 is just around the corner!!"

He goes on to point out that, contrary to appearances, he's actually better off now than when he started since:
a) while in the process of falling down the very deep rabbit hole which it took over a week to climb out of, he's cleared $50 of bonus; and
b) he's a slightly better poker player now than he was when it all started to go pear shaped, twenty buyins ago.

In those 16,698 hands, I got dealt 78s 59 times and 78o 140 times. Which shows that suited hands really are rarer and more precious and that it's perfectly sensible for someone to minraise their amazing, giant-slaying 'soooooted' connector from UTG and then call Hero's 3bet push with AA and make their flush on the River.

Random Stats:

BR: $593.22 (Titan $559.55; FT $32.00; Party $1.67)
Bonus cleared: $100 (16.6%)
Bonus remaining to clear: $500
Ring games winrate (SSS NL50): 0.04BB/100 (16,698 hands)

[img= ]

Opening Thoughts

The last 4 weeks have been my toughest since I started playing poker for money. In that time I've endured two 20BI+ downswings at NL50, and losing $200 each time – and then having to grind my way back to break even - has taken all my powers of endurance, determination and will.

Missing skills?

It has really brought home to me how much patience and grit and self-belief are required to do well at this game. To be perfectly honest with you, I'm not certain I have what it takes. As I get ready to move up to NL100, having at last scraped together the necessary minimum 30BI bankroll required, I also find myself wondering whether my mathematical ability is up to the task. I am certainly competent at maths – able to understand the concepts of odds and probability, equity, fold equity and so on – but it doesn't come naturally. Crucially, when the clock is ticking and I have to decide whether to call an all-in push on a difficult flop where I have outs but no made hand, I tend to resort to instinct – not calculation – and that's a real problem.

Fears of Failure

I had hoped to have a bigger bankroll behind me before moving up but I've run out of time. Let me explain: I can only play about 750 hands a day at the moment. What with work – a new job where I need to impress to be sure of holding on to it in difficult times – and trying to get my book published, I just don't have more than 2-3 hours a day to spend playing (and my wife already thinks that's a lot…). And because I have given up heavy multitabling after some bad experiences with 12+ tables (now I play only 7 or 8), I can't really play any more hands in the time available each day.

On the other hand, I don't want to miss out on the first deposit bonus which I'm in the process of clearing – slowly. At NL50, I won't be able to clear all of the remaining bonus in the time left for me to do so. But at NL100 is should be possible to clear it all, while still playing a number of tables I feel comfortable with.

I'm aware this is a slightly risky strategy – especially since the last time I moved up to NL100 the flames of glory that first greeted me there – winning over $250 in my first couple of days – soon got out of control and burned me back to the ground. But the bonus is already earmarked for a video camera to follow the first days and weeks of the arrival, in autumn, of our new baby Tim64 (I don't want to rely on still pictures for something so important as recording these special memories). So, although I have to admit that I don't really feel I've beaten NL50 well enough to justify moving up – a winrate of only 0.44BB/100 hands over 20,000 hands hardly inspires great confidence - I can't really afford to hang about. I hope I don't regret it…

Medium/long term goals:

1. Finish watching all SSS videos in Gold section;

2. Cement my NL100 BR by cashing in 20,000 Titan points (I have 18,000 at the moment) for $150. It would be more +$EV to wait until I have 80,000 points - for $800 - but I really want to get a more comfortable NL100 BR as soon as possible so that moving back down to NL50 becomes less of a danger). [In the end I was able to hold out for the 80,000 points]

3. Reach Platinum on PS and unlock the Platinum articles and videos. Review each. [Ongoing - starting to work through the material but Platinum status based on Titan promo and SSS grinding which is a thing of the past, so I will not complete this goal]

4. Practice using Xarry2's EV calculator live in-game, and post hands for evaluation of tricky spots on the sample hands board. [To be instituted once I play less tables and have more time and my system can cope with having two programs open at the same time]

5. Unlock the remaining ~$490 of FDB and attain a BR of $1,000+ [complete]

Random Stats:

BR: $643.12 (Titan $609.45; FT $32.00; Party $1.67)
Bonus cleared: $110 (18.3%)
Bonus remaining to clear: $490
Ring games winrate (SSS NL50): 0.44BB/100 (20,000 hands)

wow awesome blog and i can really relate to a lot of what you are experiencing.

just hang in there and keep trying to improve, then i am sure you will do ok at nl100

good luck

Normally I feel bad when I get it in with the worst hand and still win. A little guilty, somehow. But after my terrible run at NL50 (20k hands, 20BI downswing and eventually breakeven) I don't mind taking a bit of luck at the start of NL100.

A few pretty sick beats…for my opponents:

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;SB$151.40:108/14 /10 /4.0/36 /30 /100 /50 ;UTG1$123.02:107/16 /17 /1.7/63 /38 /100 /40 ;Hero$15.00:///////;CO$32.50:10/80 /0 /4.0/50 /-/-/0 ;[/tg]
0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7♥, 7♦. CO posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG folds, UTG1 raises to $5.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $15.00 (All-In), 2 folds, SB raises to $30.00, 2 folds.

Flop: ($52.50) 7♠, T♦, 9♥
Turn: ($52.50) Q♥
River: ($52.50) Q♠ (2 players)

Final Pot: $52.50

Results
Hero shows a full-house, sevens full of queens (7h 7d
SB shows two pairs, aces and queens (Ah As)

Hero wins with a full-house, sevens full of queens (7h 7d)

and this…

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;UTG2$41.40:31/23 /3 /7.0/40 /0 /50 /0 ;Hero$15.00:///////;[/tg]
0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A♠, Q♦
UTG2 calls $1.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 3 folds, UTG2 raises to $15.00, Hero raises to $15.00 (All-In).

Flop: ($31.50) T♥, 9♠, 8♠
Turn: ($31.50) Q♠
River: ($31.50) 6♠ (1 players)

Final Pot: $31.50

Results follow:
Hero shows a flush, ace high (As Qd)
UTG2 shows a pair of kings (Kc Kh)

Hero wins with a flush, ace high (As Qd)

Hehehehehe! Serves you right you limp3betting SOB!

And this:

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;SB$120.37:107/16 /17 /1.7/63 /38 /100 /40 ;Hero$35.65:///////;[/tg]
0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with J♣, J♠
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, 5 folds, SB raises to $10.00, BB folds, Hero raises to $20.00, SB raises to $60.50, Hero raises to $35.65 (All-In).

Flop: ($97.15) 3♦, 8♦, 8♠
Turn: ($97.15) J♦
River: ($97.15) A♠ (2 players)

Final Pot: $97.15

Results follow:

Hero shows a full-house, jacks full of eights (Jc Js)
SB shows two pairs, queens and eights (Qc Qh

Hero wins with a full-house, jacks full of eights (Jc Js)

And, when things are going well, it means you also win when you have the better hand (just):

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;SB$132.50:15/27 /20 /1.0/75 /-/100 /33 ;Hero$21.00:///////;[/tg]
0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9♥, 9♦
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, SB raises to $10.00, BB folds, Hero raises to $21.00 (All-In), SB calls $11.00.

Flop: ($43.00) 7♠, K♥, 3♠
Turn: ($43.00) 5♥
River: ($43.00) T♣ (1 players)

Final Pot: $43.00

Results follow:
Hero shows a pair of nines (9h 9d)
SB shows a pair of eights (8c 8h)

Hero wins with a pair of nines (9h 9d)

Finally, just to show I'm not having it all my own way, take a look at this sick fishy taking a bite out of me:

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;Hero$18.00:///////;CO$94.40:15/27 /20 /1.0/75 /-/100 /33 ;BU$22.60:62/23 /19 /6.0/83 /60 /-/40 ;[/tg]
0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q♥, Q♦
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, CO calls $3.00, BU raises to $22.60 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero raises to $18.00 (All-In), CO calls $19.60.

Flop: ($64.70) A♠, 6♠, 9♣
Turn: ($64.70) 8♣
River: ($64.70) 7♥ (1 players)

Final Pot: $64.70

Results follow:
Hero shows a pair of queens (Qh Qd
BU shows a pair of jacks (Jc Jh
CO shows a straight, ten high (Th 9h)

CO wins with a straight, ten high (Th 9h)

As I'd hoped, I'm clearing my fdb bonus a little bit faster at NL100 so the BR's beginning to move in the right direction again. Basically, it has been at or below $500 since the beginning of May hence the frustration of previous posts. I really hope this continues, but ready yourself for another tirade if I start ending up on the other side of hands like those above again.

Oh, and the Laksa? Well, we're having Laksa for lunch: a rich, lemony Malaysian noodle soup made with pork meatballs, coconut milk, lime juice and chilli and curry paste. Mmmmmmmmmmmmm. Credit to Raun for the idea.

Stats:

BR: $784.92 (Titan $750.92; FT $32.00; Party $2.00)
Bonus cleared: $160 (27%)
Bonus remaining to clear: $440
Ring games winrate (SSS NL100): ~4BB/100 (2,000 hands) but due to suckouts, not skill ♦

p.s. the observant of you will have noticed that my 'roll at Party has also shot up, from $1.69 to $2.00!!! I wanted to play a little to make sure I don’t lose the PP points I have there (they start taking them away if you don't play for some weeks, I think). So I sat down with my entire BR at a 0.01/.02 table and could not believe how bad the players are. But that didn't stop me falling down to $0.89 before finally picking up AA v KK all in preflop, which held up. Playing BSS at microstakes is pretty good fun actually and a good way to reinvigorate yourself if the daily SSS grind is getting you down…

No posts for a while as I've been busy losing money. My preflop equity is in the black; my winnings firmly in the red.

I'm nearing 20BI down now at NL100 from being 10BI up shortly after starting, and I can tell you that losing $600 as a result pretty much blows.

I'm not too disconsolate, as I know that others have seen bigger swings than this, but it's opened my eyes to the fact that playing SSS for a living is - for me at least - a pipe dream.

I'm generally happy with my play - I get enough 'nhs' on the hand posting forum to convince me that most of what I'm doing is fairly solid. But nothing I can do will make the cards fall my way. If I go all in with QQ vs AK, villain hits his A or his K (and, quite often, both ) but when the shoe is on the other foot and I have AK vs opponent's Jacks or Queens or other random pocket pair they've decided to call with, there is nary an Ace or a King to be found.

Add to that a few fish calling me with K :diamond:4 and hitting a backdoor straight (A 3 5 followed by : 9 and 2 :spade:) and you have a recipe for poverty. It reminds me of that film 'The Cooler', with William H Macy, where the casino employs this bad luck magnet to go around to people's tables to bring a downer on their winning streak.

Well, I have just over 3 more BI to loose before I hit the minimum for NL50 so the odds are good that I'll be moving down again soon. Such a shame, as I really thought my game and my luck were finally on the up...

BR: $408.49 (Titan $374.49; FT $32.00; Party $2)
Bonus cleared: $260 (43.3%)
Bonus remaining to clear: $340

Hey Tim,

Haven't heard from you in a while (except in the sample hands forum =D). Man, sorry to hear you're having a rough time in NL100. But hey, keep it up, swings don't come only with SSS.

Anyway, I was wondering if you wouldn't be interested in doing some sweat sessions? If you are, do add me on skype (danielcaltabiano) and we should schedule something. It'll be great to discuss some hands and all that.

Take care.

Crashing out of NL100 today has an air of dejas vue about it. Not surprising, really, when I think about the fact that the same thing happened to me 3 months ago.

It's hard to be positive about the fact that my BR is at the lowest it's been for 2 months and that hundreds of dollars of winnings and bonus have just bled away to nothing.

Today's session was about average for recent times: I raised AKo, got a call. Flop is K56 rainbow. I c-bet 2/3 pot and villain calls. Turn is an 8. I push the turn and get a call. River is another K. Pretty sweet? No, actually. Villain is holding pocket 8s.

Next hand, I raise AKo 5.5bb with a limper and blind poster, get a call. Villain is holding 64s and flops both a flush draw and a gutshot. He donks, I call and he even hits a pair on the Turn. (My call is rather suspect, it's true, but that's another story.)

Next hand, I raise AQ and get a call. Flop is Q,8,9. Great, right? Well, it would be if villain wasn't holding pocket 9s...

Less gallingly, my JJ come up against QQ and my QQ come up against AA and at the end of all that it I'm another 7 BI and $140 down. Sure, I've made one or two iffy moves, but generally I've been getting stuffed royally almost without exception for the last month or two... And oh, the cruelty of each winning session that is followed by a losing session twice as big: 'One step up, and two steps back...' as Springsteen sings.

Ok, enough moaning now. It was my choice to play this game so I can't complain if it's not working out. It's cost me nothing but time - yet so much time; and nothing to show for it... Tomorrow I start again - once again - on NL50.

p.s. Thanks to all on the SSS hand forum for their continued support and encouragement and particularly to Dandycal (whose self control and bankroll I'd very much like to have) ♦

BR: $317.53 (Titan $283.53; FT $32.00; Party $2.00)
Bonus cleared: $300 (50% - but where's it all gone)
Bonus remaining to clear: $300

If you haven't already seen this, it will either be a complete waste of your time or you'll actually get some laughs from it and cheer up.

Originally posted by raun
wow awesome blog and i can really relate to a lot of what you are experiencing.

just hang in there and keep trying to improve, then i am sure you will do ok at nl100

good luck

#2
i'd gonna buy u're novel ♦

maybe u should try a less agressive br-managment for nl100
->like 50-75 buy-ins

with a tighter BRM u don't have to care for 20 stacks downswings as they are normal business within the midstakes

Just a quick update as once again it's very late. I posted about a month and a half ago about the joys of breaking even. Once again my BR has got back to where it was when I first joined Titan 2 months ago. So I have made exactly $0.53 in that time (OMG). Given that I've cleared $400 of bonus in that time, my downswing has cost that amount.

It seems like every day for weeks and weeks I've lost many more flips than I've won and been sucked out on more than I've sucked out. By way of example, yesterday I had 11 flips and won only 1 of them; in turn there were 6 suckouts and again only 1 of them was in my favour. Today, for the first time in I don't know how long, I won as many flips as I lost and sucked out an equal number of times to my opponents. So, for once: 'fair's fair'.

I have basically stopped enjoying poker as a result. I'm only playing now for the points generated bous I'll clear at the end of this month. After that I will try something new as SSS is getting me down and there's really no point doing something you don't enjoy - especially for many hours every day...

The most positive thing has been the little bit of SH full stack NL.02 I played at Full Tilt when I was in London over the weekend with family. I really enjoyed it and it was great to be doing well - even if doing well at NL.02 only means making a few dollars. But when I consider I made more in one night than I have in 2 months of SSSing on Titan, it seems to me it's time to make a change...

Thanks for reading as always - I hope the next 3 weeks passes quickly; because I'm tired of the mindless grind without any upside.

BR: $516.75 (Titan $475.53; FT $39.22; Party $2)
The increase to my FT 'roll is a sick 29% increase - in a single weekend ♦
Bonus cleared: $400s (66.6%)
Bonus remaining to clear: $200
Points Bonus - due beginning September $800

Originally posted by Tim64
Question: How many hands does it take to break even at NL 50?

Answer: 16,698.

That's right. After playing 16,698 hands over the course of 60 hours (2 and a half entire days of my life - or the equivalent of 4 days if you count waking hours only), I have achieved a winrate of 0.04BB/100 for a total profit of... wait for it... $3.54!!!

That's 6 cents an hour, I'll have you know.

How does a rational person react to this news? He says, "this Poker lark is actually, unequivocally, a total, complete and utter waste of time".

How does an irrational fool named 'Tim64' react to this news? He says, "Whoooooooooooopeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!! The downswing's over at laaaaast!!! NL100 is just around the corner!!"

this one cracked my up, seriously.

To be honest i'm a little drunk right know, which kept me from commenting on your newly posted hands, and i read a few posts of your blog instead.

referring to your last post: sry to hear you got fed up with SSS once again.
i hope you find your way.
but remember: surviving in poker is all about dealing with variance.

Well thanks for posting on my Blog Mr Gonzo394. Things are not going so unremittingly badly at the moment. Overall BR momentarily back up above $600 so reasonably rolled for the combination of NL50 & NL100 that I've been playing the last couple of weeks.

I'm pretty comfortable that I won't go broke as I'm discipled about moving down, and this means I don't mind playing a little above my roll from time to time as I don't usually suffer from scared money syndrome.

All guns aimed steadily at the end August/beginning of Sept when various bonuses should complete and, assuming Titan don't screw me over, my BR should comfortably double.

More importantly, however, is when are we going to hear more about the wise and mysterious Gonzo394? Where is your blog, Sir?

Just hold on Tim, I'm in a similar spot to yours, played my first two weeks on NL50. I don't however intend to start playing on NL100 at least untill I have 1k for 50 BI. Also I think I would like to have a winrate above 1bb/100 on NL without rakeback over a reasonable sample.

One thing that helped me a lot in my NL50 struggle was buying some handhistories since it easied my job immenselly (is that even a word?). You can easilly pay for them with just one stack, and I feel the 14$ I invested were payed for in the first session I played.

Contact me on Skype some days if you want to discuss anything or do some sweat sessions it should be helpful.

I've just been through this blog to make the bankroll stats a bit more prominent by putting them in colour and in bigger type. Blue indicates no change from the last post, Green shows an increase in BR, and Red is for all those awful losses.

I couldn't help but notice, once again, the huge swings that one can experience playing this game.

I would estimate that psychological aspects of the game count for at least 33% towards one's chances of long term success at poker. Somehow one has to get to the psychological state where the real-world value of the money one has at a table is irrelevant to how an individual hand is played; where $ are just chips and chips are just the plastic counters in a game of skill and chance.

If we could play Poker like we play Monopoly - paper money and no consequences if we loose it all - we'd all be better players I suspect.

BR $664.03

(Pretty clear I can't ignore the money side of it yet) ♦

By way of illustrating the yo-yo effect described in my last post, my BR now stands at a pitiful ...

$370.19

(Titan $327.88; FT $40.31; Party $2).

The reason for this fall? An abysmal weekend where, to give you some hand-based stats (mainly NL100 and some NL50):

I got dealt AK or AKs 48 times and lost $17.14 with it (AK hasn't been a profitable hand for me any day of the last 5...);
I got dealt KK 9 times and made a total of $8.1 (I've heared it's the second best starting hand in Poker; but clearly that's an exageration);
I've been dealt AQ or AQs 72 times in around 5,000 hands. Why we're told to raise this hand playing SSS I don't know, as that hand is worth
-68.51BB/100 hands (-$34.44) to me...

Variance, anyone?

imo invest money into private coaching.
ROI of that is More than if you would continue playing as you just were

I know you have some FPS moments but deviating too much ain't really good in terms of profitable play!

Take care

yeah!
take a greyboy-coaching - will help u alot and is really cheap ♠_love:
he's a german nl600+ reg ♠_cool:

http://shortstackcoaching.de/

and please dont play nl100 with this br.
otherwise u will end on nl25 again or even more worse.

take care

Tim I'll gladly take a look at you playing if you want. I don't have the skills of a coach, but we can still discuss the interesting spots and our of views on the strategy.

Just msg me sometimes

First, thanks guys for all the kind thoughts and words of support. It really does mean alot. You can rest assured, though, that I'm not in any danger of going busto. I know when to move down limits and I'll stick to NL50 until I'm at least out of the danger zone. The $1K mark is surely just round the corner... There is no doubt that I have some leaks in my game, but I'm intent on ironing them out.

However, I sincerely believe that this latest fall is at least 80% variance. When I started out on Titan I had close to $500. After a three week stretch of break even poker things started going well and I built the BR up to $870 or so in about 10 days (a profit of about $230 excluding cleared bonus). I simply don't believe that would have been possible if I was, on average, a losing player. (Well, I have to believe that, don't I? The alternative is pretty horrendous to consider. Anyway, I've posted the main money losing hands from the most recent losing session of -$130 so we'll see if people think I'm making loads of mistakes or not.)

And the key point is that I'm really not doing anything different from that period of time - when I was winning nicely - to the current long stretch of losing. The debacle of this weekend is just a continuation of a long spell of mathematically 'unlikely' results. I take some comfort from reading other's posters' tales of break even stretches of even 60-80k hands on SSS so I absolutely will not give up faith.

@ Rah - yes please! I've pm'd you again on Skype just now - so let me know if you didn't get it. If you did, message me back of some times when you're free.
@ Gerv - I'm sure you're right about the coaching in general terms but.... 1. I can't afford it now ; and 2. I don't belive coaching is necessary to beat NL50. At the moment NL50 is treating me as badly as NL100 so I just have to post hands, iron out the obvious leaks and wait for things to turn around. And I know that, eventually, they will

BTW, what are...

some FPS moments

???

You have so many poker related shorthand expressions that sometimes I feel we speak a different language

BR 323.98
(Titan $281.67; FT $40.31; Party $2)

Incey Wincey Spider climbed up the water spout;
Down came the rain and washed the spider out;
Out came the sunshine and dried up all the rain;
So Incey Wincey Spider climbed up the spout again.

Hello. My name is Incey Wincey. I'm addicted to poker. ♦

Just played the first really good session for days. My all-in equity ran at 63% and for once my winnings actually exceeded expectations for a 69% share of the pot. I haven't experienced this in a very...long...time. Given that this included my KK losing to TT (villain being dealt quads by the river), I can be pretty pleased with both my play and the result.

Well ofc this small 25$ positive session does little to repair the 400$ dent in my BR of last weekend, but its effect on my confidence is the important thing.

For a little light relief, I also played 130 hands of micro HU against some Titan fish and ran at a rake-busting 35BB/100. Well, bring on September and the end of the grind.

BR 379.89
(Titan $337.58; FT $40.31; Party $2)
Bonus cleared: $520 (86.6%)
Bonus remaining to clear: $80
Progress towards additional $800 rakeback bonus: 99%