Harrier's Blog - Mixed Games & Mixed Drinks

Long ago I noticed that my 5-Card Draw results were terrible on Saturdays.
I put it down to expecting people who played on Saturdays to play like the regular weekday players did.

Not so, actually.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Long ago I noticed that my 5-Card Draw results were terrible on Saturdays.
I put it down to expecting people who played on Saturdays to play like the regular weekday players did.

Not so, actually.

There could be several reasons why I do worse on Saturdays, but I don't think any of them have to do with the player pool. For now, though, I just wanted to investigate whether the results are significantly worse on that day at all, rather than why that could be.

More stats: I created a new spreadsheet to look into how much the Stud tournaments may be impacting my performance in the Badugi tournaments that start one hour later. Here are the results:

Again, a considerable difference, which confirms what I thought before. Like with the weekdays, I know that correlation is not the same as causation, but I believe it still paints a pretty clear picture which gives me another argument to cut Stud.

Update:

This year, I have been grinding Stud twice: One time in January, and then once more since the end of July, when I picked it up again. I know that January was a bad month overall, so to avoid any bias in the data due to a general downswing, I have now included the results since picking up Stud again separately:

It doesn't change much, it still suggests the same thing.

Still hungry for stats? I finished the spreadsheet about the weekday performance that brought OpenOffice to its knees earlier. It now includes data for all game types, as intended. We could look at all kinds of games, but since most of them don't have a lot of volume (many worksheets are even placeholders for games that haven't been played at all), let's just look at the two games that we have been discussing:

Not a lot to see, actually, as both games tend to follow the overall trend - not surprisingly, since Badugi makes up the biggest bulk of my games anyway. Stud having the best returns on Wednesday, which is normally one of the worst days, may seem like an oddity, but it's only because it was just one game that happened to go well, as you can see.

I mainly looked into it to see if there are certain weekdays where Stud does show some good results, which maybe could have made me consider leaving one day per week on which to play that game. While it's interesting to see that it has been outperforming the overall results on Thursday, I still don't think I have much to go with.

As for my poor results on Monday and Wednesday in general, btw, this really should be a case of just correlation. I'm normally away for sports practice on those days, which didn't start until lockdowns were lifted some time in spring or so, which means that most of my games on those weekdays happened earlier this year, where poker was just going poorly overall for me. There is no reason to think that those days are bad for grinding in general.

That´s an interesting point. I normally have a way bigger win rate at weekends or taking suckout after suckout after suckout against luckers. This is because at the weekends there are lots of recreational gamblers at the tables, while during weekdays you find more regs. So, you have to adjust your strategy. When I was still playing NL Holdem SnGs and MTTs, I noticed that at the weekends ABC-poker is more than enough. It´s profitable. You often do not need creative or aggressive moves. It is enough to wait patiently for a good solid hand and then let it pay out.

And we should not forget that Stud and, in my case, PLO are very variance-heavy. The more no fold button gamblers the more variance. In some poker variants there are tons of outs and possibilities to hit your miracle lucky hand. In PLO MTTs I see Villains who raise and re-raise with hands which actually would be a no-brain fold. But as you have seven, and in my case, four cards, its not unlikely that they somehow hit and get lucky.

In CG Villains are way more careful because there, you play directly with money while in tournaments you pay only the buy-in and you get chips. This encourages of course reckless play. And fold equity is so much lower at the weekend in MTTs.

Not a Mixed Drink, but...

Primrose sent me a lovely gift basket during her last visit, which, among other thoughtful gifts, included this little bottle:

It's a "Pirate's Gulp", straight from the North Sea, where the grindette spent her last vacation. Notice that the bottle is slanted. It's supposed to be.

It contains 40 ml of fine herbal liqueur, which is a drink I'm quite partial to. It was very pleasant tasting, more so than most brands you can get at the local stores.

Thank you very much, Prim, and I hope you're looking forward to your own birthday already.

Poker, meanwhile, is still on a bit of a downswing. I have thought about it a bit, and I have come to the decision that yes, I should drop the Stud tournaments, effective immediately. It will be better for my grind.

While this is a tactical loss, maybe I can turn it into a strategic victory. I couldn't make the tournaments work, but I have gained a lot of experience in Stud ever since picking it up last year, which has a good chance of being useful in other mixed games I could be grinding in the future, like 8-Game and HORSE.

There are not many options to replace Stud MTTs in my usual evening grind, and I do want to play something else besides Badugi. However, while the tournaments will be gone, what about Stud cash? I usually find it hard to enjoy cash games, and I'm typically not very good at them, but this could be another area where the experience I have gained during the failed tournament grind could come in handy, and I would still have a chance to improve, potentially increasing my chances in future mixed games.

There is only thing missing that is very important for any of my serious grinds - namely a spreadsheet, of course. I found an old spreadsheet on my PC that was originally intended to track FL Five Card Draw cash results, which worked by including cells for up to five tables for each day where I would manually put in my profit. It would then calculate my profit for the entire day and provide some additional long term stats.

For an old spreadsheet of mine, I thought it was already pretty advanced (I didn't learn most tricks until last year, some even this year). So I tweaked it last weekend to include support for the new weekday stats I added for my tournament spreadsheets, as well as the same graphs that I already collect for my tournaments, allowing for side by side comparisons. I also made it adaptable for future years and other kinds of poker cash games.

One important thing that it's lacking, though, is support for statistics for different limits. This could be very useful information, as I would be likely to jump around different stakes a lot due to the low traffic. Including it would most likely require a complete overhaul, so I had a different idea. I also have my mahjong spreadsheet, which already does include support for different stakes, different weekdays, even different times of day, as well as all the graphs I need.

The downside is that instead of the five table per day thing, which should be perfectly sufficient, the data is added row by row on one potentially endless sheet, which is a bit awkward, and could potentially result in long loading times after it has been filled out a lot, as it is already the case with my mahjong spreadsheet. I can't really think of a better way, though, so I will probably use that and adapt it for Stud cash, as well as any other future poker cash games I might try.

You´re very welcome, Harrier. Was actually looking for something which is not too sweet and has nothing to do with fruit, knowing you don´t like that. Then I found this.

To get it out of the way first... my idea with the Stud cash games didn't work at all, and I could tell just through one session. No, obviously I didn't just say "I lost, so I can't beat this game" after a single session. I did lose, and I did get unlucky despite putting my chips in as a favorite many times, but that's not the problem. The problem is that all the issues that I felt were with the Stud MTTs are amplified in the Stud cash games. Tilt is a bigger problem, distraction is a much bigger problem, especially because I would have to babysit tables as well due to the low traffic, and while I'd consider both cash and tournaments moderately beatable, probably at a similar rate too, it is not worth the lost value in Badugi because of the factors I mentioned.

I especially felt it last Tuesday, when I played on big tilt again in the Badugi because of my failed experiment with those cash games, but luckily, somehow still managed to get a good run, thanks to some really clutch draws. It went all the way to 5th place, in fact, for $21.93. On Thursday, I made sure to only play the Badugi, and played much better - but this time lost with a cooler, finishing with a $1 bounty only. I sure preferred the other combination...

Moving forward from this, my poker grind is lacking not just results at the moment, but also a good plan. Originally, I thought that it might be best to really just cut everything besides the Badugi, but I have some different ideas now:

One idea was Five Card Draw, which did have some good results last year overall. The big variance is a problem, as is the relatively big buy-in ($7.50 on weekdays, $11 on weekends), but if I can ride it out, an ROI that is high enough to make it worthwhile should be quite achievable, I believe. It's also nicely grindable in addition to the Badugi, with 5CD starting less than an hour later.

My solution is to keep playing weekly games with Prim on Friday, like in today's Troll Challenge, and if I start feeling like I'm doing all right in them and the results start coming in, I will give the $7.50 games in the evening a try. It may take some time, but that way, I won't have to take such a big risks in the evenings.

And about those afternoon games, I considered playing something else besides our $4.40 Five Card Draw, but it turned out that there weren't as many other games around that time as I remembered. There is an $11 8-Game, but I don't feel confident enough in this format right now to take a shot at such limits. Solution: I will re-add those $1.10 8-Game tournaments in the evening, that I previously dismissed as not being worth it thanks to their super small prize pool and slow pace. None of that has changed, but it should be a good way to get some practice in, now that I have something to shoot for, and that will really be their only purpose for now.

So that's the plan: Badugi stays as usual, $1.10 8-Games get added for practice purposes, and as soon as I feel ready, I will add either $11 8-Games in the afternoon (probably only on a weekly basis) and/or $7.50 5CDs in the evening. Let's see how it goes, I could use a little push in the right direction.

Oh, and there's another football match tomorrow, first one of the play-offs for the promotion into the 2nd national league. I could write another big post about it like I did for the season games, but honestly... I'm a little burned out from this sport by now. For almost two months now, there was a game on most weekends, with tough practice sessions before it and usually a video analysis meeting the evening before the game - I'll have to leave for another one of those shortly.

That means that in the majority of weeks, I have been away for more than half of all evenings during these last two months. Practice involved doing many of the same things all over again, often with the same people, and the atmosphere was usually a bit tense too, knowing that every single game counts in this short season. Obviously, there was no time for poker either on those days.

There will be only two games left now, and I'm sure I can push through, but I urgently need a break, it almost feels like a job by now. I will work on getting my enthusiasm back during the winter months, where I should work on my physical fitness too, to help me last a little longer next time, maybe.

Anyway, as I said, first play-off match tomorrow, we're playing Ingolstadt, and luckily, it's a home game. Kick-off should be at 3 PM. My shin is still causing some problems after a bit of a crash during practice last Monday, but I will put some kind of bandage on it and stay ready, in case I do get some playing time.

Best of luck in the football!

Stud is a game where you have to pay attention even when you're not in the hand, so you can see what others do.
I hate it and I love it.

I have played so little 5-Card Draw over the past few months it is almost a different game these days.
Players who I could once count on to play in a certain way, now are playing quite differently. It's weird

Dragons lose 21-35. A fair result, really, Ingolstadt were the better team this time. There is one more game left, so the promotion into the national leagues is still possible. It's supposed to take place on October 31.

I didn't play this time, so I guess I can't be blamed for the loss. It was probably for the better anyway, with my bruised shin and all, I didn't mind at all.

Despite not playing, I was still a little tired from being on my feet all day, so I skipped my regular tournament session in the evening. I did, however, play some FL Five Card Draw cash games, which I had starting doing again a few days ago. Now that 5CD tournaments are one of the games I consider adding to the grind once I'm ready, I figured it could be a good way to get some practice. Today went pretty well, and of course, I already got a tracking spreadsheet ready and put the results in.

Tomorrow, there should be Badugi and 8-Game again. And of course the HORSE race from our Troll Challenges.

Originally posted by Harrier88
I did, however, play some FL Five Card Draw cash games, which I had starting doing again a few days ago. Now that 5CD tournaments are one of the games I consider adding to the grind once I'm ready, I figured it could be a good way to get some practice. Today went pretty well, and of course, I already got a tracking spreadsheet ready and put the results in.

Sorry to hear about the game -- best of luck on the 31st!

I sure wish that they had FL 5-Card Draw tournaments. NL is a whole different game.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Sorry to hear about the game -- best of luck on the 31st!

Thank you! As far as I'm personally concerned, it actually doesn't matter much to me whether we succeed with the promotion or not. I already mentioned in earlier posts that after having tried so many different sports over so many years, I'm already dealing with the question of when to retire from organized competitive sports. I make a decision on this year-by-year based on a variety of factors including my personal life, my personal fitness and the perspectives I see within my team. I want to feel like I gave it my all when I finally do retire and switch to recreational sports only.

In that light, it wouldn't matter too much to me personally if we are playing on a national level, where I would most likely still struggle to get any playing time in, or on a regional level, where I would try to increase my role in the team to go out with a bang. Either way, one or two years into the future would probably be a good time to retire, from my current estimation.

About the promotion, Ingolstadt will play Pforzheim next weekend, and then we will be headed to Pforzheim the following week. Two of the three teams will get promoted, so if Ingolstadt wins again next week, our next game will literally be "winner takes all" for both teams. If Pforzheim wins or ties, we will not only have to win, but the points margin will also matter.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I sure wish that they had FL 5-Card Draw tournaments. NL is a whole different game.

I don't think FL would work all that well in tournaments, though I prefer PL over NL in them too.

As for cash games, it's definitely FL for me. NL 5CD cash is more of a classic "betting game" (in the sense that poker is said to be a money game played with cards rather than a card game played with money) which I believe just doesn't work all that well in an online setting. At least not for me, I'm sure there are people who can make it work for them, and quite well, even.

Minor successes in Badugi, including a 9th place today and a 10th place yesterday, put us just above break-even for the month so far.

No success yet in the two 8-Games I played. FL Five Card Draw cash does show consistent profit so far, but it is much too early to tell, obviously. I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

Well, best of luck for the next game. Missed it unfortunately, but seen that I even must have missed a game of my former team, the Phantoms.

Tonight saw some more modest success in my tournaments, and strange occurrences in the Five Card Draw cash games...

First things first, I'm not very happy yet with my performance in 8-Game. I guess it wasn't too wise to jump in straight away, trusting in my old skills, without taking a look at some material first for a quick refresher. It might be a concentration issue too, but I'm still making some unnecessary mistakes in many games. Today saw an early rebuy, which, however, was mostly down to bad luck, I believe. After that, I could at least secure a good run despite some mistakes, finishing at 13th place for a 3rd ladder cash, which earned $3.52 and was easily enough to cover both buy-ins. This marks my first cash in there since picking the game back up last Sunday.

Badugi mincashed with some bounties for $5.34, so both tournaments brought home very slight winnings.

Now to Five Card Draw... I decided to add another table when only the 8-Game was left running, and I'm glad I did, because in my very first hand, I was dealt a garbage hand while the player to my right limped in and stood pat. Surprisingly, he checked, so I checked behind to see that he had another trash hand, even though it narrowly beat my unimproved one.

Seems like a misclick? Well, he entered the next pot again, which was multiway. Again, he stood pat and called down - without a proper hand. Now the jig was up and the feast was on, because he proceeded to play and pat every single hand, and later even turned on the aggression. And not only that, he also auto-reloaded to a full stack after every hand. Sounds too good to be true? Maybe, but that's what happened, and it lasted for a bit until all players at the table had to sadly wave goodbye to him eventually.

How easy was it to take money from him? See for yourself:

Yes, it went like that the whole time. It meant some "interesting" changes to the game. For one thing, straight and flush draws are now pointless, since their purpose besides bluffing potential is usually implied odds, losing more often than not but ideally being able to win big pots when they hit. With this guy, bluffing is pointless and you can extract maximum value with your "regular" hands already, while missed draws are among the only hands he is likely to beat.

Also, the other players at the table still knew how to play, of course, and since they all caught on, you would realistically only need to beat them, but you also now run the risk of running into an inflated pot when you are in a multiway pot with them and our favorite player. In this hand, for example, I made a tight fold in order to avoid a capped pot against possible trips, even though I would have called otherwise (our friend was in BB):

Made around $3 off this guy until he was done. Looks like he was either a bit too deep into the mixed drinks tonight, or the poor guy left his PC unattended while his naughty kids took over, but I wouldn't be surprised if he faces an investigation if this keeps up.

Almost didn't want to include this session in my tracking spreadsheet because it may skew the results, but if it happened, it happened, and I'll put it into account. Luckily, though, the "normal" cash games went pretty well today too, despite having to reload once, so we are looking at some promising results after three days so far.

Good run in the Badugi tonight, but some tough luck at the final table kept me from going all the way. Finished with a 7th place and decent bounties for $17.08 in total.

I hit a bad streak of games in 5CD cash starting last night, but luckily, I managed to turn it around this time, putting my total winnings from about a week of playing over $10 again. I will review it after the end of the month, even though I will be really busy with football for one more week until this year's season is done once and for all.

Major Milestone Reached!

As a result of today's games, which included a minor cash in Badugi, a mincash in 8-Game, and very slight overall profit in the Five Card Draw cash games, my bankroll on Pokerstars has increased to over $2K for the very first time ever.

This sounds nice, though it doesn't change the fact that I'm trailing way behind expectations this year. It has been now almost exactly one year since my decision to stop withdrawing anything in excess of $1.5K and start building a bigger bankroll for higher stakes tournaments. $2.5K was and still is my goal, though my sluggish progress makes me doubt if I should still even go for those higher buy-ins.

To re-iterate, I started with about a $150 head start above $1.5K when I made that decision, made about $170 the following month, and since then, only around $280 have been made in about a year. I've had months last year that made more than that.

Still, it is a major milestone nonetheless, there have been some good developments this month and there's nothing I can do now about my poor performance in the first half of the year anyway. I don't think I will crack the $2.5K mark this year, which is pretty bad, but if I manage to finish a few hundred dollars above $2K, I guess it's a decent result after all. I should then hopefully be able to finish the deal a month or two into 2022.

One more week left in October, which features the final stretch of my football season. I already heard that Ingolstadt had another convincing win against our next opponents today, which means that in our final match next weekend, all we need to do is avoid losing and we're back at the national level next year. Even a draw would be enough.

Wow! Nicely done.
What buy-ins will you play now?

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Wow! Nicely done.
What buy-ins will you play now?

Thank you! Nothing has changed for me, it's still $4.40 Badugi and $1.10 8-Game for me. The next feasible 8-Game limit would be $27, which is the reason why I started saving up in the first place.

There would be other 8-Game stakes in the afternoon, but I don't feel confident for those yet either, and neither for the $7.50 Five Card Draw tournaments in the evening. As for the cash games, I stick to FL $0.10/0.20, mostly because it's usually the only game that has traffic. I might try the next highest stakes occasionally if I had a chance.

Moving up in 8-Game stakes would require not only more funds, but also more skills, and I'm working on both. Maybe I can carefully try the 5CD tournaments again sometimes starting next month.