Originally posted by jiffybag
Spoiler
PokerStars - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 44.3 BB
CO: 102.8 BB
BTN: 100 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 126.8 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ T♣
fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, BB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.5 BB
Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 8♥ J♠ 2♠
Hero checks, BB bets 7.9 BB, Hero calls 7.9 BB
Turn: (40.8 BB, 2 players) 9♥
Hero checks, BB checks
River: (40.8 BB, 2 players) 3♥
Hero bets 27 BB, BB calls 27 BB
This is normally top pair type hand that is pot controlling (b x b), your image must be getting you paid.
Make no mistake, my play was not correct, although justifiable. HIs just happened to be the worst possible.
Context:
Villain is raiseing pratically all my steal attempts, both from SB (directly on his BB) and in BTN (his SB).
I've aleady folded a couple of valuable hands (KQo and such).
PF: Considering villain is 3 betting a lot of my OR, ATs is a good candidate for a 3bet deffense (imo).
Flop: I missed the flop. No point in keeping on this pot. BUT villain is forced to Cbet 100% of his range and flop fits decently into my calling range, so I decided to float.
Board: 8♥J♠2♠
Equity Vencer Empate
SB 43.61% 42.13% 1.48% { TT-55, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo, KQo }
BB 56.39% 54.91% 1.48% { 99+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+ }
Range wise, my range (forget about my hand) kind of balances vs his.
Now, let's refine my range to what villain can perceive me to have:
Board: 8♥J♠2♠
Equity Vencer Empate
SB 48.13% 46.97% 1.16% { TT-99, 77-55, 8d8s, 8d8c, 8s8c, QTs, KhQh, KsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AhTh, AsTs, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, As8s, Ac8c, Ah7h, As7s, Ah6h, As6s, Ah5h, As5s, Ah4h, As4s, Ah3h, As3s, Ah2h, AdQs, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQs, KdQs, KhQs, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQs }
BB 51.87% 50.71% 1.16% { 99+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+ }
Most of this range would call his small Cbet.
Turn: The 9♥ actually falls into my range and since he doesn't fire 2nd barrel, we can take some combos off his range:
Board: 8♥J♠2♠ 9♥
Equity Vencer Empate
SB 61.32% 59.77% 1.56% { TT-99, 77-55, 8d8s, 8d8c, 8s8c, QTs, KhQh, KsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AhTh, AsTs, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, As8s, Ac8c, Ah7h, As7s, Ah6h, As6s, Ah5h, As5s, Ah4h, As4s, Ah3h, As3s, Ah2h, AdQs, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQs, KdQs, KhQs, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQs }
BB 38.68% 37.12% 1.56% { QQ, TT, AQs+, ATs, KQs, KTs, AhJh, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, AQo+, ATo, KQo, KTo }
The exclusion of some of his hands that should've CBetted turn changes the range dynamic.
River: Without any exclusion from both ranges:
Board: 8♥J♠2♠ 9♥ 3♥
Equity Vencer Empate
SB 71.14% 70.17% 0.98% { TT-99, 77-55, 8d8s, 8d8c, 8s8c, QTs, KhQh, KsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AhTh, AsTs, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, As8s, Ac8c, Ah7h, As7s, Ah6h, As6s, Ah5h, As5s, Ah4h, As4s, Ah3h, As3s, Ah2h, AdQs, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQs, KdQs, KhQs, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQs }
BB 28.86% 27.88% 0.98% { QQ, TT, AQs+, ATs, KQs, KTs, AhJh, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, AQo+, ATo, KQo, KTo }
So, in theroy, my range is stronger than his, since I have all the str8 and backdoor flushes that I think he trashed with his missed turn CBet. But, we are playing hands, not ranges:
Board: 8♥J♠2♠ 9♥ 3♥
Equity Vencer Empate
SB 37.95% 32.89% 5.06% { AcTc }
BB 62.05% 56.99% 5.06% { QQ, TT, AQs+, ATs, KQs, KTs, AhJh, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, AQo+, ATo, KQo, KTo }
I bet, not because I may be ahead. If I thought I'd have any possibility to be ahead, I'd have checked here.
I bet because I think there's a good possibility he will fold AK and AQ along with his KQ and KT. On a good day, even some QJ, JT. Basically, hands that would lose to a 2:
Board: 8♥J♠2♠ 9♥ 3♥
Equity Vencer Empate
SB 73.54% 73.54% 0.00% { 4d2c }
BB 26.46% 26.46% 0.00% { QQ, TT, AQs+, ATs, KQs, KTs, AhJh, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, AQo+, ATo, KQo, KTo }
That is about 40% of his range that I think he'd fold and have me beaten.
Now, about his line. The stupidest thing is he is blocking the exact hand that would bluff this spot, so I cannot have it...
He loses to any A.
He loses to any K until K8 (KT- is not really in my range often)
He loses to any QX worth combo: QJ, QT, Q9, Q8 (QT- not really on my range)
He loses to any JX
He loses to any playable T combo.
I'd need to play 76, 75... in a 3bet pot, for his call to stop being stupid. Even if I sometimes would, that would never be the most significant part of my range.
His call is just the sickest thing I've seen in ages. If he has any hope that I'm bluffing (usually a correct deduction) he has to raise me. It's either a fold or a raise, here. Both correct on his part. EVERYTHING BUT THE CALL