Harrier's Blog - Mixed Games & Mixed Drinks

Sophomore Slump or Fish on a Heater?

Had another terrible night at the tables, among other things with four Courchevel SNGs bricked, which puts me on a seven game losing streak that is part of a bigger series, with only one out of the last twelve games cashing.

My current graph may still not look all that bad at first glance...

...but I think it may be one example of a bigger problem, if we look more closely. All too often, it seems that I am starting out with a good heater in a format, and then reality catches up with me and I get a long stretch of break-even or losing results that probably reflect my skills more accurately.

It's still early, but do you remember last year's stats?

Courchevel SNGs, 2022

I fear that we may see the same thing this year, and I was even careful enough not to get too optimistic about early successes because I knew how deceptive they can be. Whenever I tried Courchevel MTTs in the past, it was usually a similar story, with some early successes, possibly even FTs, until all the winnings are wiped out again.

Seems like a small sample? Just about any graph could be broken up that way? I have more cases like this, collected from over the years:

8-Game MTTs, 2022

Seven Card Stud MTTs, 2021

Note those first two candles in the beginning, which tell a similar story on a smaller scale.

Also, remember my current Stud Hi-Lo SNG graph? Small sample, but same pattern.

Stud Hi-Lo SNGs

FL 5CD Cash Games, 2022

If we really want to go back, remember Five Card Draw MTTs in 2020? The rest went well, but those games, shown in yellow here, were given up for exactly this reason:

Poker MTTs, 2020

Heck, it's not even just poker. Take a look at my mahjong graph for 2022:

Mahjong, 2022

2021 was less extreme:

Mahjong, $2/$4 games, 2021

2020 was a better example...

Mahjong, 2020

...though the losses were mostly due to shots at higher stakes - which also followed a similar pattern:

Mahjong, $4/$8 games, 2020

OFC currently still has good stats at the lowest stakes, and the sample for the slightly higher ones is small, so it is not a good example, but for what it's worth:

OFC on Coinpoker, ₮0.05 games

OFC on Coinpoker, ₮0.10 games

Last year's stats:

OFC on CoinPoker, 2022

OFC on SwC, 2022

In the above one, I re-started the games towards the end of the year, so while it may look like a recovery, it can be considered two example of the same thing.

To be fair, though, there has been at least one format where I may have made a genuine recovery, though this one also involved some breaks. I'm talking about Five Card Draw SNGs from 2022:

Five Card Draw SNGs, 2022

Just one graph like this may mean nothing, and such a combination of graphs may still mean nothing... but this really is something I'm dealing with a lot, I believe. Yes, I know there are always swings, but this pattern of doing well early on for a short time, followed by long stretches where I am breaking-even at best keeps re-appearing.

We could get all conspiratorial and say that this is a way of letting the fish win early on so they think they may be good, but now that I think about it, it might be a mental thing, because I have experienced similar things even in sports. When I was taking up a new sport at university or later on, I was often among the better rookies starting out, and then in the next semester or season, I was often only a shadow of my former self.

This is sometimes referred to as a Sophomore Slump, the tendency to fail to live up to your first performance when you return for a second time, and I think I definitely have a tendency for that.

Is this what could be going on here? Or am I just catching lucky breaks in the beginning? What do you guys think?

Well... many unanswered questions remain about the grind. What to play, when, how much, how often, how long, and whether I should be doing any of this at all - pretty much anything you could possibly ask.

For now, though, I will gladly let all of those things rest, as we are entering the Easter weekend. I will certainly not play on Friday, and I'm not sure about Saturday, it will depend on what else comes up, with the family gathering for a visit and all.

I don't know where I will be going with poker, and morale has certainly been better, but there are more important things.
Happy Easter, everyone!

.

Thank you, Happy Easter to you too.

The Five Card Draw and Courchevel SNGs are played in the PL format, Stud Hi-Lo is FL and 8-Game is all kinds of things, naturally.

The buy-ins are almost exclusively $2, the only exceptions are the Five Card Draw games in 2021 and early 2022. This is simply due to the fact that the only SNGs on offer in these formats are $2 and $5 buy-ins, and the $5 ones have effectively no traffic at all. The exceptions I mentioned were some games in early 2022 when the Russians were still around, where I actually managed to get a few $5 games going. Also, Pokerstars changed the buy-ins some time in early '22, the limits used to be $1.50 and $3.50, so some of my earliest games in the graphs include some $1.50s.

I'm using OpenOffice for the graphs and stats, I'm not aware of any good trackers for these formats. I used to rely on Sharkscope and PokerProLabs, but I decided to start collecting my own data three years ago, which I can then break down and analyze in any way I like, beyond the limitations of those website.

No poker so far during this Easter Weekend - but with my brother's family staying with us for a few days, including the little ones, I instead embarked on a mission to build the marble run to end all marble runs:

The finished thing is about 1.30 meters tall, involves three different brands of marble run pieces and took pretty much all afternoon to build, involving several different layouts to be tried and a lot of tinkering around. It was quite a project... at times, it almost made me feel a little underqualified with my puny non-STEM Bachelor of Arts degree.

The little "skyrail" section in the back with the helices involved brand new marble run parts that only arrived two or three days ago, so it was my very first time setting them up as well, and I had to figure out this new system first.

In the end, though... it works. Not all marbles always make it through the entire course, but that just adds to the excitement.

My nephew was much more thrilled about watching the marbles race, of course. He helped with the construction, but could thankfully be distracted by my brother with a trip to get some ice cream during the parts that required some deeper thought.

Some exciting races were had, and a champion marble was crowned. And I urgently needed a break after all that contruction work. But it was an afternoon well spent, with an activity that pleased both the kids and the adults.

The Easter break was just what I needed, and I came out of it feeling refreshed and ready to take on the challenges of the coming week.

...but after just one day of poker, I'm already back to that old jaded and slightly disheartened feeling that I had before.

I still have no idea what to do about poker, but I need to figure it out. It is starting to have a negative impact on me in general, it seems.

I know the feeling.
I'm nearing the FT of an 888 freeroll, realizing that even if I make 1st place, my hourly will be 1/4 the local minimum wage.
So I ask myself, "What's the point?"

If it wasn't for the games I play on the side, the freeroll wouldn't be worth it.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I'm nearing the FT of an 888 freeroll, realizing that even if I make 1st place, my hourly will be 1/4 the local minimum wage.
So I ask myself, "What's the point?"

If it wasn't for the games I play on the side, the freeroll wouldn't be worth it.

Well, it's just a freeroll - if it would be easily worth it for the players, it wouldn't be worth it for the poker room.

There are even some paid entry tournaments that I skip for precisely that reason, that they would require a very long grind for pointlessly small returns aside from maybe the better FT ranks. I remember 888 in particular being pretty bad about this in the past, with their MTTs that have two weeks or so of late reg, and I expect not much has changed.

At least you managed to win close to my daily wage in a single hand of an NL25 table that you played on the side while you were copying files the other day.

As for my poker situation, there are several things to figure out, but I think one solution may be to cut down on playing time - not that I am playing all that much right now in the first place. But it might be a good idea to limit my poker time to the time frame between dinner and bedtime only, and only play a limited number of games. I used to do all right back in the day playing just one Badugi MTT and nothing else each day.

I even considered making an "anti-volume" goal, such as "play no more than four games per day". But maybe I will come up with another good solution, it's not just volume anyway, it's also what to play, and basic things like plain old poker strategy.

Oh, and OFC might be gone on CoinPoker, which is the only room that had decent traffic. I couldn't find the games in the lobby anymore (and they used to have a huge OFC tab in the main lobby, so it shouldn't be a filters thing), but I contacted support and I'm waiting for an official confirmation.

Originally posted by Harrier88
There are even some paid entry tournaments that I skip for precisely that reason, that they would require a very long grind for pointlessly small returns aside from maybe the better FT ranks. I remember 888 in particular being pretty bad about this in the past, with their MTTs that have two weeks or so of late reg, and I expect not much has changed.

The single biggest problem with 888 tournaments is the extremely long late-registration period, coupled with a slow blind structure.

Although the hourly sucks, the ROI is infinite.
I missed the FT finishing 11th for a buck

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I know the feeling.
I'm nearing the FT of an 888 freeroll, realizing that even if I make 1st place, my hourly will be 1/4 the local minimum wage.
So I ask myself, "What's the point?"

If it wasn't for the games I play on the side, the freeroll wouldn't be worth it.

This is exactly why I do not play MTTs anymore. And if I do, the purpose is just for fun and hobby.

Harrier, as I already said to you: There´s a good reason why I don´t play every day and why I take my days off the tables. Because less is more. ♠_cool:♠_thumbsup:

Okay, I thought a bit about it, and made a decision. In short: I will keep playing, one single session in the evening, the $4.40 Badugi MTT and some SNGs, currently Courchevel. Exceptions are Tuesdays (not today), where I may do an afternoon grind. I currently don't plan to do any off-days, but if I do, it will only be one day per week or so.

For the breakdown:

The Mainstay

Badugi will stay the cornerstone, as the only game where I can show consistent long-term success.

The Side Games

Courchevel SNGs will be my current #1 side game, until the end of the month unless something changes. I am currently $2.83 in the red for the month, I would like to turn it into a profit of $15 or better or an ROI of at least 20%, better yet 25%. If I fail to reach it, Courchevel might not be for me, but I will try to look at more than just the results.

Courchevel MTTs may be an option to be considered once I start showing results in the SNGs, but it would require me to change my grinding hours around a little. PLO8 MTTs could supplement it in this case.

Five Card Draw is the runner-up, I suppose, but I'm ambivalent towards that one. Maybe it can be used as a filler if there are no Courchevel tables. I don't feel confident enough for the MTTs right now, maybe some day. $4.40 PKOs can be included in the Tuesday afternoon grind.

Currently On Hold

I would like to get back into Stud Hi-Lo eventually, but I would have to de-rust and do some reading. Other games have higher priority right now - less is more. $3.30 MTTs can be included on Tuesdays, but I should still read up on strategy.

8-Game will be on a full hiatus for the time being, I think I need to get better at the Stud games to stand a decent chance, and at least get a clue about FL Hold'em.

OFC may be effectively gone if that one is really discontinued on CoinPoker, as it seems. Best I can do is some occasional fillers on SwC, but a proper grind would be almost impossible.

None of those will include any higher buy-in games, and I currently don't have any ambitions for them either in the near future, realistically. This means that I will be quite over-bankrolled, but I will stick to the old plan and keep building for now.

"Less Is More"

Is that my new mantra now? It might as well be...

Results-wise, there is not a whole lot of positive stuff to report, with three out of four Courchevel SNGs bricking, but the fourth one was shipped, to get the session back into "not terrible" territory. It didn't help with Badugi, which also bricked after I got my chips in good as a 70% favorite against a bigstack bully near the bubble.

The important thing is the mental game, and when it comes to that, I think I already did a lot better than before. I have a bit of a mess to deal with here, and I know it won't be done in a day. Discipline is key, and that is what I have been lacking so far.

Still a lot to do, both mentally and strategy-wise, but at least I am able to identify and exploit some good value and bluff spots already, and I don't already feel like giving up after one bad day. Let's take it slow.

I already mentioned to Prim that 8-Badugis may become to me what KK is for her in Hold'em. It's a monster hand predraw, ahead of the vast majority of other pat Badugis and a 70% favorite against even the best possible draw - and yet, it has been my exit hand for the second time in a row now, in both cases against aggro players with wide ranges.

Only one Courchevel tonight, finished 2nd. Got the chips in good heads-up, and I should have played quite solidly until then too, so it's all good.

I can do my best to play well and master the mental game, but I can't do anything about empty lobbies and tables. I tried adding a 5CD SNG, but that one didn't run either, only one other guy bothered to show up in the lobby. Maybe that means an early bedtime for me for once.

Poker Sabbath?

I have brought up the idea of poker-free days recently, and after another terrible performance at the tables tonight, the idea of taking Saturdays off from poker came to mind. I believe I had mentioned before that I felt like was doing worse on those days anyway, and today was no exception.

Besides, I take a break from most other things too on Saturdays, including all online and PC stuff until some time in the evening, if possible. Taking the day off from poker as well would only be fitting.

Still, I would like to take a look at the data to make sure that I am really doing more poorly on those days, and that I didn't just have too much moussaka this evening or whatever.

Let's start with last year's stats, to give us a bigger sample. The red line marks the average.

Looks like I didn't do that poorly on Saturdays.

However, it is also worth taking a look at ROI instead of profit, to adjust for volume:

Saturday isn't looking so good anymore, but it's not the worst. Thursday now is head and shoulders above the rest, with Sunday's profits mostly relying on bigger volume, which is more than twice as large as Thursday's, as you can see in the charts below:

Now, let's look at SNGs:

Pretty good going on Saturdays. Thursday is an outlier yet again, but this time, in the opposite direction.

Looking at the ROI to adjust for volume changes things around a little once again:

Saturdays look less great, but still okay.

As usual, there was bigger volume on weekends:

This becomes even more apparent if we take the amount of games played into account, rather than just the days where I played at all:

Let's get to this year's stats now:

What's up with Thursday once again? Saturday is looking bad, but it's not alone.

The SNG charts largely tell the same story this time:

As you can see, this time, there was no big difference after adjusting for volume either, because it was relatively even this year, with Saturdays already being a low volume day as a bit of an outlier.

In conclusion, I don't tend to do very well on Saturdays, but it is not as bad as I thought in comparison to the other days. If I do decide to take poker-free days, Saturday is certainly an option, but based on the results, I could just as well use Monday, for example, where I am currently doing even worse.

If my data had shown a more significant decline in performance on Saturdays, I would have designated them as my poker-free days right here and right now, but in this case, the idea only remains on the table. It could very well be that I have just been going through some bad phases there.

Still, I am more than open for suggestions, because if things continue to go as they are, I will likely have to cut some games by the end of the month, and I am running out of things to replace them with.

On Life Support...

To recap my short-term goal for the month, to determine if Courchevel could be a game worth grinding, I was aiming for $15 in profit or 20% in ROI for the month of April. Currently, we are at -$14.58 and -24.30% ROI. This is the wrong direction, and even if things improve, I see little hope of getting on track for what I was aiming at.

Only $16.51in profit for the year are left from my early upswing, ROI is down to 12.32%. I have already decided that I will pull the plug prematurely if I get down to only $10 in profit at any point. A 2nd place tonight bought me some time, but it was up against three bricks.

Very likely, this is another losing or break-even game where I caught a lucky heater in the beginning.

Unless a miracle happens, these SNGs will probably be replaced by 5CD by the end of the month, which is also going poorly. If that one won't make the cut either, maybe SNGs will be discontinued entirely.

Badugi MTTs also keep bricking recently. Sorry - I would love to report some positive news, but there aren't any. I can't even think of any new games to play that may have any potential.

My goal was to play for monthly withdrawals again by the end of the year. If things keep going like this, I can be happy if I'm still playing at all by that point.

So poker isn't going too well recently... how about a side challenge?

Long time followers will know that I used to play mahjong for real money on a certain network, and sometimes documented my progress here - in fact, many of the poker spreadsheets I have currently in use are modified versions of a spreadsheet I once developed to track mahjong games

I was never really able to truly beat those games, only having some short-term success, but I wanted to take a look at the lobby again a few months ago, partially to avoid any inactivity fees, which are also a thing over there. Oddly, the client I downloaded 7-8 years ago didn't seem to be working anymore.

Maybe it is not supposed to, because I accessed an online version through their website instead, and it seems like the lobby has received an overhaul with a slick new design. Also... it's all in Japanese. This is the main lobby:

Well... anyone here speaking Japanese?

I once learned katakana and hiragana, but I got very rusty with them by now. I never knew any kanji except for the numbers 1 to 10. At least my knowledge of katakana (and the previous lobby layout) was sufficient to see that this is the cash lobby:

Looks like they even have some decent traffic in there, including some high rollers duking it out for hundreds of dollars.

I also received this popup message there which didn't go away on its own. The text was not copy-pastable, and I don't like the idea of clicking on popups I don't understand, but after manually typing up the katakana, it looks like it was just some info about a quick seat function.

And yes, I had a look at the settings menu, which was thankfully easy enough to find with its cog symbol. I looked up the kanji for "English" (英語), which were sadly nowhere in sight, it seems to be all gameplay-related.

Anyway... I have about $190 of real money left in that account, which we may as well consider play money, because even when the lobby was still in English, I found it tough to find any good withdrawal methods, so good luck discussing it with a Japanese support staff. Don't worry, my bankroll was funded through freeroll winnings back when the site was a lot more Westerner-friendly, and I even once made a $50 withdrawal via Neteller, so I'm not really putting anything at risk. But what shall we do with those $191.78 in effectively non-withdrawable mahjong funds?

How about a little side challenge:

Yes, just a little challenge on the side: Try to win a few mahjong games despite the language barrier.

Don't think that I will be going YOLO, though, just because I can't do anything else with the funds. I would like to maintain a mahjong bankroll if possible, to allow myself to continue to play real money games against other people whenever I like.

I guess I never looked too much into the lyrics of the song above, but I recently read that it is supposed to be about two drug-addicted lovers at the West Berlin Zoo station (known for its drug scene at the time) who are fantasizing about living clean and being successful somewhere else - and telling it to other people, so they feel less bad for their real situation. Lead singer Marian Gold said in a 1998 interview:

If you are nothing in your environs, you can be big somewhere else. You can be a king in another world. And if you aren't that, you can tell it at home. Japan is so far away.

It seems like a fitting parallel to what I'm doing here, doing a little exotic side challenge to take the focus off my current poker results a little. And that's all this is going to be, just a little thing to try every now and then to get a quick gambling fix when I don't feel ready for poker or can't find any tables. I didn't consistently beat mahjong when I knew what the buttons were saying, so I don't expect to do it now.

But let's see if we can overcome the barriers to get a few wins against stacked odds after all. Things are easy when you're big in Japan.

You know, how about I make poker my side challenge instead? Tonight was infuriating!

This time, it was mostly beyond my control, I think, including internet troubles for a while during a SNG, in the middle of a hand, but that is of little consolation. Everything is still going down the drain, and I am getting really sick of it.

I plan to play an afternoon session tomorrow, with Primrose railing, who may witness my last Courchevel hands being played for the time being. I can only hope things will be a bit better then, because right now, poker is having a really bad impact on me.

Is anyone even still reading this? Are my posts too long? Too much whining from me? Or are my games just too exotic?

Anyway, the afternoon session was a bit of a change of pace. Still not very successful, of course, it was a relatively slim session anyway.

I thought a bit about what other games could be tried as a part of my grind, now that I am considering giving SNGs the axe in general. Between 6 and 7 PM my time, there would be Courchevel and PLO8 MTTs at acceptably low buy-ins which could be played at the same time. I could also try some satties for the Mini Octopus (8-Game) around that time, to get my feet wet in this format again without risking too much of my dwindling bankroll. The downside is that if I am going to play Badugi later on as well, I would end up playing for most of the evening, so I don't think this is a choice for every day. Maybe it could be tried from time to time to change things up.

This is not the worst downswing I have had results-wise, I had a much worse one two years ago, where I was losing for six months straight. It may be one of the worst when it comes to morale and motivation, though, at least since switching to mixed games many years ago.

Quitting poker entirely doesn't quite seem right yet, however. I think I just need to find a way to turn it into a positive experience again. Not sure how to do it yet, besides the old "less is more" approach, but maybe I will find some way eventually.

No matter how: The most important thing is to mentally get through a downswing, no matter how. For me personally, it´s the good old "less is more", while other may grind quickly though it. We are not exactly champions, when it comes to the mental game and to dealing with downswings. You can try a new variant, you can try a new game, you can play less, you can focus more on other hobbies, ... there are many possibilities to get through a downswing. I didn´t make it back in 2019 though this horrendous long downswing, but always remember: It´s just a hobby. It´s our free choice to hit the tables. It´s not our daily bread and butter.

Originally posted by Primrose6789
always remember: It´s just a hobby. It´s our free choice to hit the tables. It´s not our daily bread and butter.

I'm not sure to what degree I can agree. Sure, I don't need poker to pay the bills, but I'm definitely in it for the money, and for the competition. I couldn't just play poker for the fun of it, like I now intend to do with mahjong, I don't really find the game enjoyable enough for its own sake. That is surely part of the problem, and it may be considered a reason to quit - but at the same time, it's also a reason to keep going.

Originally posted by Primrose6789
You can try a new variant, you can try a new game, you can play less, you can focus more on other hobbies, ... there are many possibilities to get through a downswing.

Well, yes, that mostly is the problem right now, I don't think there is a game I haven't tried yet, and none of them feel right at the moment. The best solution I can think of is to play something else for a while simply as a change of pace. It's a shame OFC seems to be gone on the only site that had traffic, even though the game was on hiatus for me.

Going back to Badugi only like I used to do seems like an increasingly valid option, but I feel like only one game per day would be a little boring after all.

As for other hobbies, I do hope that tennis will start for me soon, I could use an athletic challenge. Unfortunately, it seems like communication at my new club leaves a lot to be desired. But yes, I do constantly feel the urge to do something productive in my free time, and there are plenty of projects for me, possibly even more than I can handle. Still, my bad poker performance seems to hang over me like Damocles' sword, it can make it hard for me to set my mind to other things sometimes.

Maybe a break would be in order, but it seems like that would only postpone the problem, and possibly add even more pressure when I return. I already had a bit of a break over Easter, and it seemed to do a world of good, but the effects were gone almost on Day 1 when I restarted.

I don't know, it's tough. But thank you for trying to help. Any further suggestions are more than welcome.