Mind Games

They say to "pick the hill you want to die on" — and I'm OK with dying on this hand
PokerStars, $1.96 + $0.24 - 7 Stud H/L Limit - 500/1,000 (200 ante) - 8 players

Seat 5: 15,949 (16 bb)
Seat 6: 11,870 (12 bb)
Seat 7: 21,625 (22 bb)
Seat 8: 31,640 (32 bb)
Seat 1: 13,317 (13 bb)
Seat 2: 9,800 (10 bb)
Seat 3 (Hero): 23,791 (24 bb)
Seat 4: 53,879 (54 bb)

Third Street: (1,600) Hero is in Seat 3
Xx Xx 5♥: BI bring-in 300____BI folds
Xx Xx 9♣: UTG folds
Xx Xx T♥: UTG+1 folds
Xx Xx Q♠: MP folds
Xx Xx A♥: MP+1 raises to 1,000____MP+1 3-bets to 3,000____MP+1 calls 1,000
Xx Xx 8♥: LP folds
Xx Xx 8♦: CO raises to 2,000____CO 4-bets to 4,000
A♠:3♠:7♦: Hero calls 2,000____Hero calls 2,000

Fourth Street: (13,900) (3 players)
Xx Xx A♥:7♣: MP+1 bets 1,000____MP+1 raises to 3,000____MP+1 calls 1,000
Xx Xx 8♦:4♠: CO raises to 2,000____CO raises to 4,000
A♠:3♠:7♦:3♥: Hero calls 2,000____Hero calls 2,000

Fifth Street: (25,900) (3 players)
Xx Xx A♥:7♣:Q♥: MP+1 bets 2,000
Xx Xx 8♦:4♠:9♥: CO calls 1,600 (all-in)
A♠:3♠:7♦:3♥:A♣: Hero calls 2,000

Sixth Street: (31,500) (3 players, 1 all-in)
Xx Xx A♥:7♣:Q♥:2♥: MP+1 checks
A♠:3♠:7♦:3♥:A♣:5♣: Hero checks

Seventh Street: (31,500) (3 players, 1 all-in)
Xx Xx A♥:7♣:Q♥:2♥: Xx MP+1 checks____MP+1 calls 2,000
A♠:3♠:7♦:3♥:A♣:5♣:6♦: Hero bets 2,000

Total pot: 35,500

Showdown:
Seat 3 (Hero) shows A♠:3♠:7♦:3♥:A♣:5♣:6♦: (HI: two pair, Aces and Threes; LO: 7-6-5-3-A)
Seat 8 mucks A♦:3♦:A♥:7♣:Q♥:2♥:K♠: (HI: a pair of Aces)
Seat 2 mucks 8♣:Q♦:8♦:4♠:9♥:J♦:Q♣: (HI: two pair, Queens and Eights)
Seat 3 (Hero) wins 35,500

Originally posted by Harrier88
Ah, so you're in the Stud Hi-Lo too. Best of luck!

I regged late and after about 30 minutes of playing, I don't think I have had a playable hand yet, at least none that remained playable past 4th street.

I saw you in there, but I wasn't able to rail as I had too much going on.
Edit: OK I bust out of my other tournament so I'm now railing you

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I saw you in there, but I wasn't able to rail as I had too much going on.

Not much to rail so far, but a few hands were able to keep me alive up to this point.

Originally posted by Harrier88

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I saw you in there, but I wasn't able to rail as I had too much going on.

Not much to rail so far, but a few hands were able to keep me alive up to this point.

Not far behind you — finished 171st

It started well before my normal getting-up time, so I missed the first hour

I was doing "OK" then this...
PokerStars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Omaha H/L Limit (8-Game) - 1,200/2,400 - 6 players

UTG: 34,080 (14 bb)
MP (Hero): 75,355 (31 bb)
CO: 12,280 (5 bb)
BU: 43,888 (18 bb)
SB: 58,779 (24 bb)
BB: 39,835 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,600) Hero is MP with 8♠:A♦:2♣:4♥:
1 fold, Hero raises to 4,800, 1 fold, BTN calls 4,800, SB calls 3,600, BB calls 2,400

Flop: (19,200) 4♦:6♥:7♠: (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets 2,400, Hero calls 2,400, BTN calls 2,400, SB calls 2,400

Turn: (28,800) K♣: (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets 4,800, Hero calls 4,800, BTN calls 4,800, SB calls 4,800

River: (48,000) 5♠: (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4,800, BTN calls 4,800, SB calls 4,800, BB calls 4,800

Total pot: 67,200

Showdown:
MP (Hero) shows 8♠:A♦:2♣:4♥: (HI: a straight, Four to Eight; LO: 6-5-4-2-A)
SB mucks T♠:7♣:6♠:A♠: (HI: two pair, Sevens and Sixes; LO: 7-6-5-4-A)
BB mucks J♠:A♣:Q♣:3♦: (HI: high card, Ace; LO: 6-5-4-3-A)
BU mucks A♥:K♥:3♣:T♥: (HI: a pair of Kings; LO: 6-5-4-3-A)
MP (Hero) wins 67,200

Went from 54th to 8th in one hand.
Currently in 4th with $8.44 in bounties
I'll post the chip giraffe when (if) I bust out...

Finished 37th for $21.95

The big drop is when I chased a PLO bounty with a mere two pair.
The bustout hand was AJs vs 77 that went nowhere

Also playing the $1.10 Razz, but getting no hands after the first few.

Over an hour in, and there are still people playing Stud
PokerStars, $0.98 + $0.12 - Razz Limit - 150/300 (60 ante) - 8 players

Seat 3: 15,045 (50 bb)
Seat 4 (Hero): 15,495 (52 bb)
Seat 5: 12,215 (41 bb)
Seat 6: 6,475 (22 bb)
Seat 7: 8,005 (27 bb)
Seat 8: 12,845 (43 bb)
Seat 1: 9,790 (33 bb)
Seat 2: 13,500 (45 bb)

Third Street: (480) Hero is in Seat 4
Xx Xx K♠: BI bring-in 90____BI folds
Xx Xx 3♠: UTG raises to 300____UTG 3-bets to 900
2♥:8♣:4♦: Hero calls 300____Hero calls 600
Xx Xx K♦: MP calls 300____MP calls 600
Xx Xx 6♦: MP+1 raises to 600____MP+1 calls 300
Xx Xx 8♥: LP folds
Xx Xx J♥: CO calls 600____CO calls 300
Xx Xx Q♠: BTN folds

Fourth Street: (5,070) (5 players)
2♥:8♣:4♦:6♥: Hero bets 300
Xx Xx K♦:8♦: MP calls 300
Xx Xx 6♦:6♣: MP+1 calls 300
Xx Xx J♥:Q♣: CO folds
Xx Xx 3♠:T♣: UTG calls 300

Fifth Street: (6,270) (4 players)
2♥:8♣:4♦:6♥:A♣: Hero bets 600
Xx Xx K♦:8♦:5♦: MP calls 600
Xx Xx 6♦:6♣:4♠: MP+1 calls 600
Xx Xx 3♠:T♣:7♣: UTG folds

Sixth Street: (8,070) (3 players)
2♥:8♣:4♦:6♥:A♣:K♥: Hero checks
Xx Xx K♦:8♦:5♦:Q♦: MP checks
Xx Xx 6♦:6♣:4♠:9♥: MP+1 checks

Seventh Street: (8,070) (3 players)
2♥:8♣:4♦:6♥:A♣:K♥:J♠: Hero checks____Hero calls 600
Xx Xx K♦:8♦:5♦:Q♦: Xx MP bets 600
Xx Xx 6♦:6♣:4♠:9♥: Xx MP+1 calls 600

Total pot: 9,870

Showdown:
Seat 5 shows 7♠:A♦:K♦:8♦:5♦:Q♦:9♦: (Lo: 9,8,7,5,A)
Seat 4 (Hero) shows 2♥:8♣:4♦:6♥:A♣:K♥:J♠: (Lo: 8,6,4,2,A)
Seat 6 shows 3♥:2♦:6♦:6♣:4♠:9♥:9♠: (Lo: 9,6,4,3,2)
Seat 4 (Hero) wins 9,870

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Also playing the $1.10 Razz, but getting no hands after the first few.

I'm getting some great starting hands, followed by just about every face card in the deck after I have built a good pot, and probably facecards from other decks as well. I may have received one of those guarantee cards from the manufacturer too.

Congrats on the cash in the 8-Game! Did the $21.95 include bounties?

Originally posted by Harrier88

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Also playing the $1.10 Razz, but getting no hands after the first few.

I'm getting some great starting hands, followed by just about every face card in the deck probably facecards from other decks as well 🤣 after I have built a good pot, and . I may have received one of those guarantee cards from the manufacturer too.

Congrats on the cash in the 8-Game! Did the $21.95 include bounties?

Yes — $10.94 prize money, plus 11.01 in bounties — or vice versa

When you're tired of waiting for playable hands, win with some unplayable ones
PokerStars, $0.98 + $0.12 - Razz Limit - 300/600 (120 ante) - 8 players

Seat 5: 9,640 (16 bb)
Seat 6: 15,940 (27 bb)
Seat 7: 27,380 (46 bb)
Seat 8: 21,140 (35 bb)
Seat 1: 36,630 (61 bb)
Seat 2: 14,175 (24 bb)
Seat 3: 18,805 (31 bb)
Seat 4 (Hero): 19,660 (33 bb)

Third Street: (960) Hero is in Seat 4
5♥:A♦:Q♣: Hero bring-in 180
Xx Xx A♣: UTG folds
Xx Xx J♠: UTG+1 folds
Xx Xx 5♦: MP folds
Xx Xx 2♣: MP+1 folds
Xx Xx 5♣: LP calls 180
Xx Xx 9♠: CO calls 180
Xx Xx 6♦: BTN folds

Fourth Street: (1,500) (3 players)
Xx Xx 5♣:2♦: LP bets 600
Xx Xx 9♠:8♦: CO folds
5♥:A♦:Q♣:3♥: Hero calls 600

Fifth Street: (2,700) (2 players)
Xx Xx 5♣:2♦:3♠: LP bets 1,200
5♥:A♦:Q♣:3♥:6♠: Hero calls 1,200

Sixth Street: (5,100) (2 players)
Xx Xx 5♣:2♦:3♠:A♥: LP bets 1,200
5♥:A♦:Q♣:3♥:6♠:J♦: Hero calls 1,200

Seventh Street: (7,500) (2 players)
Xx Xx 5♣:2♦:3♠:A♥: Xx LP checks
5♥:A♦:Q♣:3♥:6♠:J♦:6♥: Hero checks

Total pot: 7,500

Showdown:
Seat 1 shows 3♦:3♣:5♣:2♦:3♠:A♥:A♠: (Lo: A,A,5,3,2)
Seat 4 (Hero) shows 5♥:A♦:Q♣:3♥:6♠:J♦:6♥: (Lo: J,6,5,3,A)
Seat 4 (Hero) wins 7,500

154th out of an original field of 1105 — 160 paid
$1.52 is rather meagre hourly

I had a hurtful hand near the end where I had a decent runout to an 8-lo, but the opponent got runner-runner 7
So it goes.

Very nice job, Vorpal!
I played ONE event and then I already had enough of "Micro Millions".

I finally figured out how to calculate a percentage ranking for a particular score. — using the mean and standard deviation determined previously
The numbers are pretty much WAGs[1] since the percentage calculation assumes that the numbers form a normal distribution — which likely isn't correct.
The following table shows the current rankings for today. The top value although very high is not the highest I've seen.
The highest I've seen so far is 1951, which is 6.9 standard deviations above the mean — corresponding to 99.9999999997464%
     Places  Place  Points  Payout  z-Score      Pct 
 2023-04-25      1    1620     200     3.77  99.992% 
 2023-04-25      2    1607     160     3.65  99.987% 
 2023-04-25      3    1602     120     3.60  99.984% 
 2023-04-25      4    1581      80     3.40  99.967% 
 2023-04-25      5    1578      40     3.37  99.963% 
 2023-04-25      6    1567      30     3.27  99.946% 
 2023-04-25     11    1536      20     2.98  99.854% 
 2023-04-25     21    1506      10     2.69  99.645% 
 2023-04-25     51    1454       6     2.20  98.611% 
 2023-04-25    101    1428       4     1.95  97.466% 
 2023-04-25    201    1387       3     1.57  94.135% 
 2023-04-25    300    1354       3     1.25  89.506% 

[1] Wild-Ass Guess

If so, have a look at this. The hand with the sun on it represents the time as shown on a sundial.
The android app "Sunclock" can show this feature, and a host of other nifty time related data.
Note how the sundial time catches up then passes clock time.
The numerical value of the difference shows on the bottom left as "Equation of Time"
I created this from a months worth of screenshots and https://makeagif.com

Not sure why they thought 3rd pair would hold, but I'm OK with that

The 9♦:7♦: 3Bet from SB is a standard 3Bet bluff — I fold to a 4-bet and often have to give up on the flop

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players

UTG: $26.62 (106 bb)
MP: $25.80 (103 bb)
CO: $27.14 (109 bb)
BU: $24.90 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $25.00 (100 bb)
BB: $25.26 (101 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 9♦:7♦:
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.57, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $1.96, 1 fold, CO calls $1.39

Flop: ($4.17) K♣:T♦:4♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.07, CO calls $2.07

Turn: ($8.31) 7♥: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($8.31) A♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.18, CO raises to $23.11 (all-in), Hero calls $17.79 (all-in)

Total pot: $50.25 (Rake: $2)

Showdown:
CO shows T♣:J♣: (a pair of Tens)
SB (Hero) shows 9♦:7♦: (a flush, Ace high)
SB (Hero) wins $48.25

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

CO is an Optimist

Not sure why they thought 3rd pair would hold, but I'm OK with that

The 9♦:7♦: 3Bet from SB is a standard 3Bet bluff — I fold to a 4-bet and often have to give up on the flop

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players

UTG: $26.62 (106 bb)
MP: $25.80 (103 bb)
CO: $27.14 (109 bb)
BU: $24.90 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $25.00 (100 bb)
BB: $25.26 (101 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 9♦:7♦:
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.57, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $1.96, 1 fold, CO calls $1.39

Flop: ($4.17) K♣:T♦:4♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.07, CO calls $2.07

Turn: ($8.31) 7♥: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($8.31) A♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.18, CO raises to $23.11 (all-in), Hero calls $17.79 (all-in)

Total pot: $50.25 (Rake: $2)

Showdown:
CO shows T♣:J♣: (a pair of Tens)
SB (Hero) shows 9♦:7♦: (a flush, Ace high)
SB (Hero) wins $48.25

Yes it was optimistic. I think that he was trying to represent exactly what you had.

Originally posted by mariussica88
Yes it was optimistic. I think that he was trying to represent exactly what you had.

My problem is that this seems to be the only way I win pots — opponent bluffs into me.

660 hands in three different stakes yielded precisely $1.50
This is $1.50 more than in any of the previous three days, so I'm fully OK with that.
This is in stark contrast to the first week or so of playing this where I manage payouts of $10 twice, and several $3 and $4 prizes.

The full promo details are here: https://www.pokerstars.com/poker/promotions/cash-races/

I did a bit more study, and learned that the without the bonuses from Jacks, Queens and Kings, the average hand score is 16, and therefore the average score for a 60-hand "lap" is 960 — Including the bonuses, the average over 100 million iterations is a remarkably consistent 1221.5
To actually place high enough to score, it usually requires a hand that scores above the top 95%.
Today's top score was nearly 5 standard deviations above average — 1746, with is 4.9 standard deviations above the mean.
And represents an average hand score of 29.12

OK those are the great scores — now what about the bottom?
My worst run today barely broke the 10th percentile
Here are the numbers from todays run.
 score  stake    avg  z-score     pct   Pos  Prize 
  1340      2  22.33   1.1213  86.89%  1012        
  1255     25  20.92   0.3170  62.44%              
  1091     25  18.18  -1.2349  10.84%              
  1312     25  21.87   0.8564  80.41%              
  1270     25  21.17   0.4589  67.69%              
  1327     25  22.12   0.9983  84.09%   613        
  1391     10  23.18   1.6039  94.56%   369  $1.50 
  1248     10  20.80   0.2508  59.90%              
  1298     10  21.63   0.7239  76.54%              
  1141     10  19.02  -0.7617  22.31%              
  1106     10  18.43  -1.0929  13.72%              

Easy to complete, and does not encourage excessive play.
Each royal flush is worth either $4 or $6 — I got only 1 $6, so 18 total for royals.
Each 4-of-a-kind is worth $4 — so $20 in quads
Complete the entire thing to get an additional $10
Total $48.
Cost? $0.50 in rake each day for 20 days — $10
Net — $38.

I played only NL 10, and only 1 table
I looked at each hand as played, and considering my overall stated of card-deadness,
My best performance in the "cash race" leaderboard (so far) has been a very modes 1237 (avg is 1221, and you pretty much need 1400+ to get a prize)

Even so I did OK.
Helped along by hands like:
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players

UTG: $10.00 (100 bb)
MP: $13.54 (135 bb)
CO: $11.47 (115 bb)
BU: $16.06 (161 bb)
SB: $7.35 (74 bb)
BB (Hero): $10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with K♥:K♦:
UTG raises to $0.20, 4 players fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.75, UTG calls $0.55

Flop: ($1.55) 2♣:7♣:6♠: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.02, UTG calls $1.02

Turn: ($3.59) 3♥: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.78, UTG calls $1.78

River: ($7.15) Q♥: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.73, UTG calls $2.73

Total pot: $12.61 (Rake: $0.57)

Showdown:
BB (Hero) shows K♥:K♦: (a pair of Kings)
UTG mucks J♥:J♠: (a pair of Jacks)
BB (Hero) wins $12.04