Harrier's Blog - Mixed Games & Mixed Drinks

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Of all the games I ever played, razz has the highest frequency of disappointment.

Yes, I think so too. Maybe it can be played profitably if you let it all even out over time, but it is not something I'm willing to do, I don't think it's worth the aggravation - and certainly not in daily $7.50 tournaments.

I think I'm better off staying at Stud Hi-Lo, which basically feels like "Razz Deluxe" anyway, since most of the hands you should be willing to play will have low potential. Of course, my Stud Hi-Lo game needs a lot of work too, but I at least see some hope in it.

Agreed — stud hi/lo is much better than razz.
I've found that the best stud hi/lo hands are actually high-only hands with lots of out, since people chasing low hands are only chasing half the pot, and you get the whole thing when (or rather if) they miss.

Played two quick $2/$4 games before dinner.

$2/$4 means that you buy-in for $2 stack, and an additional fixed $2 payment will be made from the losing player (3rd place) to the winner. The scores for the stack sizes will be settled at the end (e.g. lose half your stack, and you get half of your $2 buy-in back; double it up, and you get double your $2 buy-in back, etc.). Therefore, the maximum loss for busting out at zero points would be $4, which is the amount being deducted from your account when you enter the game, to make sure all players are covered in all possible results.

I think I may still be a bit too intimidated by all the Japanese stuff around me. In this hand, where I already had quite a point deficit in 3rd place, I went to make another Riichi bet to announce my ready hand right away, not realizing that the draw was not very good.

I had a 3344 run in the bamboo suit before, and was aiming for a 2 or 5 to get a nice open-ender to hang my head on. I went for the bet immediately once the button was available, not realizing that I drew a 3, and was therefore stuck with pretty poor draw for a bamboo 4 or a circles 9, which is only a 3-outer in this situation.

In the end, though, I got lucky:

Not only did I get the circles 9 after all from one of my opponents, the three white dragons I had in my hand even became dora tiles, giving out sizable bonus points. Riichi plus dragon triplet plus three dora plus one extra North wind was worth 6 han - a so-called Haneman worth 12,000 points (and also getting my 1,000 Riichi bet back).

Combined with a later hand, it was enough to come back for a win, even though I dealt into the final hand here:

Looks like $0.25 was raked... that seems high.

$2.32 is my best payout yet since starting this side challenge, though. It was slightly offset by a $0.52 loss for coming 2nd in my previous game against the same opponents.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I've found that the best stud hi/lo hands are actually high-only hands with lots of out, since people chasing low hands are only chasing half the pot, and you get the whole thing when (or rather if) they miss.

They have their place - especially as a steal in the later tournament rounds against players with low cards behind you, I think. If they hit anything above 8 next, you will get a fold from certain opponents no matter what you have.

In general, though, it's best to have a low hand that has high potential too.

High-only hands should be more playable than the Stud Hi-Lo chapter in the Super System 1 suggests, however, because while I don't think it is explicitly mentioned, certain sections definitely imply that there is always a low pot under the rules for which the strategy is designed, without hands having to qualify by being 8-low or better. This means that high only hands will almost always only be good for half the pot under these rules, which is not the case in the common Stud Hi-Lo ruleset we have online.

Todd Brunson's section in the sequel should take the rules we are used to into account, and I think he is a little more open to high-only hands. It has been a while since I have dealt with either chapter, though, and I don't think I have ever even read either of them start to finish.

I don't remember the Super System chapters much — I have a book by David Sklansky (I think) and that book also suggests playing only hands with scoop potential.
It is geared to cash games though.

Nits gonna nit...

Update: Got my mincash, hooray.

Originally posted by Harrier88
Nits gonna nit...
Update: Got my mincash, hooray.

If you're that card-dead, a min-cash is quite an accomplishment

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
If you're that card-dead, a min-cash is quite an accomplishment

I could have taken a few more risks... but I guess I wanted that cash too much, as it is often the case when you are going through a bad stretch.

Besides, I knew that LAG, and in my experience, he can be quite a luckbox too when he gets challenged... I guess I just didn't have the nerves for it this time.

Got some okay-ish bounties, though, so it was a small profit.

Well, tonight was the opposite. I made it to the FT with a not so great stack, then all the other players quickly knocked each other out. Once one player took the lead in one big three-way pot, it didn't take long until he took care of the rest too.

The result was a relatively effortless (from the final table on, anyway) 2nd place finish with only $1.50 in bounties ($30.39 total).

The SNG grind is still mostly on hold, but I played a single Courchevel game. That one was shipped too, so it was a successful night overall. Motivation still isn't really back, but that doesn't have to be a bad thing, I just have many other projects to focus on right now.

I will leave you with this hand, a rare split pot in Badugi:

PokerStars, $3.92 + $0.48 - Badugi Pot Limit - 75/150 - 7 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: 11,883 (79 bb)
MP: 9,075 (61 bb)
MP+1: 7,999 (53 bb)
CO: 2,100 (14 bb)
BU (Hero): 13,130 (88 bb)
SB: 3,868 (26 bb)
BB: 10,147 (68 bb)

Deal: (225) Hero is BTN with 3♥ Q♥ 6♦ 2♣
3 players fold, CO raises to 300, Hero 3-bets to 450, SB calls 375, 1 fold, CO calls 150

Draw One: (1,500) 3♥ 6♦ 2♣ 5♦ (3 players)
SB draws 1, CO draws 1, BU (Hero) draws Qh
SB checks, CO bets 1,500, Hero calls 1,500, SB folds

Draw Two: (4,500) 3♥ 2♣ 5♦ 7♠ (2 players)
CO stands pat, BU (Hero) draws 6d
CO bets 150 (all-in), Hero calls 150

Draw Three: (4,800) 3♥ 2♣ 5♦ 7♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
CO stands pat, BU (Hero) stands pat

Total pot: 4,800

Showdown:
CO shows 2♥ 3♦ 7♣ 5♠ (a Badugi: 7,5,3,2)
BU (Hero) shows 3♥ 2♣ 5♦ 7♠ (a Badugi: 7,5,3,2)
CO wins 2,400
BU (Hero) wins 2,400

Originally posted by Harrier88
Besides, I knew that LAG, and in my experience, he can be quite a luckbox too when he gets challenged... I guess I just didn't have the nerves for it this time.

Did you see this news article about the four kinds of luck? Lags — and big stacks — seem to have loads of "opportunity luck" which I take to mean "they have chips in the middle when they get the perfect flop". Nits and short stacks are denied this opportunity.

The trick of course is to get the hell out of Dodge when the bullets start flying.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Lags — and big stacks — seem to have loads of "opportunity luck" which I take to mean "they have chips in the middle when they get the perfect flop". Nits and short stacks are denied this opportunity.

Both come with their own opportunities. If you are perceived as a nit or at least a tight player, you can sometimes set up good check-raises if you do hit your perfect hands, in a way that a more loose aggressive player may not be able too. If you do this in the right spot in a tournament, you may even get your opponent to commit their entire stack in a situation where they might otherwise have been more careful.

Conversely, of course, if you are perceived as a LAG or simply have been caught bluffing before, you may get your opponents to carelessly call your big bets and all-ins when you get the nuts, even if they should know otherwise. This, I think, is one part of Five Card Draw strategy that I have not mastered yet, but maybe should. Especially in combination with snowing.

As for thinking that some known LAGs are just more lucky... I know it's irrational, but in situations like that, those previously identified "patterns" get the better of me. There had been so many frustrating bubbles within a short time in SNGs before, another one in an MTT after taking a break for a few days would have been tough to handle. And yes, there are certain laggy regs I would rather not even have at my table at all, even though I have sometimes come out on top too.

It is natural to be in this risk-averse kind of mindset after a bad stretch, at least for me, but it is important to get out of it. At best, you will lose a lot of value by trying to play it safe all the time. At worst, you will forfeit your entire edge. Even though I pretty much got a walk to 2nd place last night by folding through the final table, I think I already did a much better job with it.

Originally posted by Harrier88
Conversely, of course, if you are perceived as a LAG or simply have been caught bluffing before, you may get your opponents to carelessly call your big bets and all-ins when you get the nuts, even if they should know otherwise. This, I think, is one part of Five Card Draw strategy that I have not mastered yet, but maybe should. Especially in combination with snowing.

A good example of this is raising flush draws in 5-Card Draw — you must CBet if you miss, if you get called and get caught you get paid off next time. It is also good to have a hand to snow with but you only play it if you get it on the button in an unopened pot.
Mine is 5 of the top 6 cards, but no straight draw. I raise from the BTN, and if called stand pat.
The best result is a fold to my CBet post-draw, followed within a few hands by a true pat hand.
Second best result is getting caught — you still will get paid off on your next pat.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
A good example of this is raising flush draws in 5-Card Draw — you must CBet if you miss, if you get called and get caught you get paid off next time.

I agree, flush/straight draws are not usually worth it at face value, they must be bluffed if missed to be profitable. Playing them for their drawing potential alone is a mistake that I often see from other players in SNGs.

However, I often abandon that plan if my opponent draws 1. It all depends on the opponent, but in general, it either means that they have two pair or sometimes even trips, in which case there is a good chance that they will not fold, because I'm not representing anything better either by drawing 1, or it means that they are also on a draw, in which case there is a chance that I may win a showdown anyway. The chance of my opponent having a better missed draw and folding to a bluff is then not good enough to be worth the risk of running into a genuine two pair or better, I believe.

Even against a draw 2, I am sometimes careful with certain opponents, even though it often means "pair plus kicker" rather than trips. Just having a kicker in their hand that they consider good enough to keep around may give them the confidence to call.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
It is also good to have a hand to snow with but you only play it if you get it on the button in an unopened pot.
Mine is 5 of the top 6 cards, but no straight draw. I raise from the BTN, and if called stand pat.
The best result is a fold to my CBet post-draw, followed within a few hands by a true pat hand.
Second best result is getting caught — you still will get paid off on your next pat.

This could backfire in MTTs if you are forced to change tables and get away from the people who saw your snow... but I have seen other players who seem to have long-term success pulling off a few snows in MTTs and then getting paid off with a real pat hand. I have even seen it often enough to make me suspect that this is a winning strategy that should be part of a good 5CD MTT player's repertoire.

Still, I don't think I can recall a single instance when I snowed in Five Card Draw. I definitely did it a few times in Badugi, and pulled it off.

Nice hand here, worth seven han: Riichi bet (1), self-draw (1), Pinfu* (1), two identical sequences (1), two North tiles (2) and the circles 5 as a dora (1).

*A hand requiring you to have no triplets, no dragon tiles or wind tiles that are associated with your seat or the round, a closed hand, and an open-ended wait for your winning tile. Despite the very complicated requirements, it is actually a quite common hand.

Unfortunately, I missed a screenshot of a more interesting hand which cleared up a house rule at this network: Both me and my opponent won through the discard of our other opponent. Under certain rulesets, this would mean that the opponent who dealt in would have to pay both of us off.

Under the rules used over here, however, the player whose turn it is first will win the whole pot - and it wasn't me this time. Tough luck, as this has cost me first place, but I still got a small profit out of it.

By now, I feel comfortable enough around that site that I made another spreadsheet to track this year's mahjong games. So far, we are about $3 up, for what it's worth.

I will try to post some poker stats too, once we're done with the month.

Rock bottom poker session tonight, with losses in two Courchevel SNGs and the PL Badugi MTT, as well as yet another bubble in a Five Card Draw SNG. That I put the chips in good in the SNGs is of little consolation. I probably could have done better in Badugi, but it's hard to stay on your A-game when things are going poorly elsewhere.

I will try to prepare some new stats for April soon, but I can already say that it was a very bad month. One look at the monthly Sharkscope leaderboards already speaks volumes:

I intend to play for a top spot in the SNG leaderboards, you know - not a bottom spot.

It may be best to focus on MTTs only, which is not a great prospect either due to the very limited offering.

I narrowly missed a few first places recently, and tonight's games wiped out most of my profit (which sounds worse than it is - $3 wouldn't even cover one bust-out). But there were a few more records to be had since starting this side challenge:

The hand above would be my most valuable yet, worth 10 han: Riichi bet (1), draw at first try (1), self-draw (1), North tile (1), four dora with the three bamboo 6s and the one bamboo 2 (4), and three concealed triplets (2).

The hand below was in the same prize range, even though it was worth only 8 han. In fact, it paid even more points because someone else dealt in, and also because there were more Riichi bets on the table. It is also another record, because it marks my best winnings to date (in this side challenge), returning a profit of $4.36 in a single game. It was tonight's highlight, but not enough to offset the other losses.

In and of itself, the hand is nothing special - just another Riichi bet (1) and it is also an "inside hand", i.e. it contains only tiles 2-8 (1). What makes it so expensive is the amount of dora tiles. The circles 5s are the dora here, and they are also red, giving each of them one additional dora. This means that I get four dora through those two 5s in my hand, and two more from my two North tiles.

All of this must sound like Calvinball to the uninitiated. Well, feel free to skip through my explanations of the hands. I am mostly keeping track of it for myself, to celebrate the little milestones since starting over in a Japanese-only client, even though I had hands like these before - and better ones - when the client was still in English with the old software and design.

The splashy all-or-nothing freeroll I mentioned before should take place at 2 PM my time tomorrow. I hope I can make it, but it's nothing to miss lunch over.

SNG Stats

The spreadsheets for the MTT stats are not yet ready, so let's look at the SNGs again.

Very bad month overall. The only good news are that losses seem to have slowed down a little over the last few weeks.

Certainly a bit of a cold shower at Courchevel.

Once again, some minor improvements recently.

Still not looking great overall.

We also have a pretty even distribution of finishing positions, which is not good.

Five Card Draw isn't looking so good either.

We do have a clear bias toward the better positions here. This would be good, if it wasn't for the agonizingly high number of 3rd place bubble finishes.

Overall, Courchevel is still the best contributor.

New results. Notice the sharp decline in ROI, which is the stat that matters.

Also notice that the average place is still in the same range as it used to be in 5CD. Those bubbles can be cruel.

Courchevel is looking better - but not necessarily good.

New overall graphs:

Those graphs do make me realize just how good that Courchevel run was earlier this year. It also demonstrates how little the poor current results in 5CD matter. I should take both of this into account when I make a decision about how to continue.

Freeroll time! Our chances are slim, but the risk is zero. Let's log in in time so that we won't be unregistered before it starts.

Oh, a message popped up with a "ping!" sound... too bad I have no idea what it says. Something about 27... I had a look at my watch, looks like it was just trying to say that I have a tournament starting in 27 minutes. That's actually a nice reminder.

This one popped up in the tournament lobby when there were only three minutes left. A similar message popped up for two minutes and one minute too. The numbers above the date on the left were a countdown... so I guess we now know what "minutes" and "seconds" means in Japanese.

Oh, new table color. This is our first hand of the tournament, and it's a decent starting hand too. Unfortunately, it didn't hit a lot, and someone else got through with a cheapo hand instead.

New button for me to get used to: In four-player mahjong, you have the option of stealing discarded tiles from the opponent to your left to make sequences. This rule doesn't exist in three-player mahjong, but it is actually standard - three-player mahjong is the abnormality.

Things didn't go too well, I was "tile-dead" and my opponent at the other end of the table ran away with the game. Only the player in first place qualifies for the next round, so it was time for a bit of a Hail Mary with this hand: I was going for a very special non-standard hand that consists of all winds and dragons as well as a 1 and 9 of each suit. It's tough to hit, but if I do, I will take down the round for sure, and I have a decent starting hand for it.

It didn't happen. This is the first time a hand ended without a winner, so it's also the first time I see this screen. What happens is that every "ready hand" that was one tile away from winning gets revealed, and a minor side pot is paid out from everyone who does not have a ready hand.

Final standings of the round:

At least with the old software, I know that there were "lucky losers" who would still make it to the next round, even though they didn't win. Am I one of them? I can't tell, I don't understand a thing...

Not sure what the following message said either, it looks like a lot of text for something like "better luck next time".

I did see my name in the list on the right with $0 to it, however, and when it was time for the next round to start, there were no tables for me. I guess that's the end of the run, then. Better luck next month.

Update: I just heard another "ping!" sound, apparently signalling the end of the tournament. Looks like yotuki took down the $200 - congratulations!

The opponent who won my round made it through another round to the semi-finals, but could not reach the final table.

If there were any "lucky losers", it wasn't anyone else from my table, at least.

Have you ever thought of using something Duolingo to learn Japanese?
I'm currently learning Spanish. They say "for free" but it is worth the $ just to avoid the ads, and the 5min/day the quote just won't cut it. But it would be fun (at least I'm enjoying Spanish) and for you it might even be useful.