Chip Up & Ship It (GGPoker, Spins recreational regular diary)

Just logged-in and saw 5K in Leaderboards - this is :f_frown::f_frown::f_frown:

Hey Studentishe,

Despite your huge success, I would be much more conservative with the BRM. Thanks to your trick with the leaderboards, you were able to earn a lot of bonuses, but of course they only help if you also run well in the leaderboard after registering. Until today, I always assumed that you can't beat the Blast tournaments. And with the BRM I always assumed at least 100, better 200 buyins. Some even recommend 500 buyins as a conservative BRM. So I advise you to pay attention as you have been running incredibly well this month. I tried a few blasts myself after your success story (I'm usually a cash game player on 888 up to NL100) and had an estimated 30 suckouts on the allins from the 40 games. The variance is simply unbelievably high with these things. My graph looks a bit like the one you posted yesterday. So I can only advise you to pay attention to the BRM! Otherwise, if you have a bad run for several days, you can quickly lose everything again.

In any case, I will continue to follow you and keep my fingers crossed.
Are you from Berlin by any chance? You wrote in a post that your neighbourhood is the "vabali spa". If so, best regards from Berlin as well :-)

Originally posted by Shqual
So I advise you to pay attention as you have been running incredibly well this month.

Hi and thanks a lot for your comment, I appreciate it and I think you are totally correct. Yesterday I had another -2k day that summed up -5K in losses over 3 days, -35% of my BR. This hit me so hard, that I started questioning everything I'm doing.

Based on the good run I've built those expectations that this trend will continue, but I see that it is not the case at all. I had a good run, now I have a bad run and I need to have a strategy around it. Either having fat BR on the platform to be able to survive those hits and keep grinding top limit, or move more aggressively down the stakes to recover.

From one point I would prefer to keep money invested in stocks or indexes. Keeping fat BR in the poker room account has some risks and don't bring any interest. But now, experiencing a swing for -50BI I see the point of heaving dead money to buffer losses.

Also it is a painful reminder, that I'm slacking on studying and analysis. This brings my ROI down and therefore negative swings are more likely.

Originally posted by Shqual
In any case, I will continue to follow you and keep my fingers crossed.
Are you from Berlin by any chance? You wrote in a post that your neighbourhood is the "vabali spa". If so, best regards from Berlin as well :-)

Thanks for stopping by and contributing, I appreciate it.
I am from Berlin and I love offline catch-ups. If you have a time and will - would love to meet for a beer or two!

Good Post from Shqual about BRM. Very important for long success by Spins.
200 BuyIns at low-limits and 300 + for high-limits with little ChipEV expectation

For more infos about BRM and a good simulation-software see this YT-Video.

Originally posted by PokerSpass
For more infos about BRM and a good simulation-software see this YT-Video.

Great video, though couldn't find where to get this software SwongSim. Seems like all links are broken and anyways it looks like Windows only option (

Ok, it is not funny at all now:

When something is out of my control I start going into theology and ask poker gods to stop this.
How do you cope with downstreaks?

HERE is download-link for SwongSim - EXE for Windows.

If you have no windows - contact me - so I can simulations make for you

How many Spins at 100 Limit with witch ChipEV have you played ?

At a tough variance-phase I look back on my resualts and work on the game-plan.
Have you read the books "The mental game of poker" from Jared Tendler?

Originally posted by Studentishe
How do you cope with downstreaks?

I had a lot frmo the book 'the mental game of poker' it's something you'll have to take into account for your whole (poker) career. Once you do it helps a lot. I think it took me 6 months of blogging to really accept it.

Having a study group really helped me because they only know truelly how it is not anyone else...

Well, thats normal, u had so small sample of ur games. When i used to grind 6max hyper 300 games per day, downswing/be 300-500 games was normal. My record was - 80buyins. I assume playing blast or spingo DS can be much bigger.

btw chip wons over hand u have difference -15k. When i play hyper games i have many days when difference is much bigger.

Thanks, fellow. It was a real pleasure to check my blog and see so many answers! I really appreciate all your reactions, support, and advices.

Originally posted by PokerSpass
Have you read the books "The mental game of poker" from Jared Tendler?

Originally posted by Fredjen
I had a lot frmo the book 'the mental game of poker' it's something you'll have to take into account for your whole (poker) career. Once you do it helps a lot. I think it took me 6 months of blogging to really accept it.

I've just recently listened to the first book and was very influenced by it's content. The biggest takeaway was how author talks about poker realities and that every player should accept them to be successful: upstreaks, downstreaks, variance, playing your A, B and C game. Especially when he stresses how important to work on your C game when you are at your worst. It was the biggest leak in my attempt to build a poker career. I could play solid the whole week and then at the end catch a tilt and loose significant amount of my previous wins. That was very useful to me in the book - should re-listen it and buy a second book.

.

This is very-very true, thanks for your affirmation and support. That is what my coach just told me on Friday. He looked at my stats, at my results and said that I'm doing fine, it is just a results deviation, that is out of my control. I can't stress enough how important for me to hear from the expert / experienced player "this is ok, you are ok".

Here is a total graph for 100s limit. 18 chip/EV that is good with the level of rakeback that I have.

I know about deviation in poker and that streaks happen, but living through them in your own experience it is a whole different story. Like I know that there is a chance that I'll catch 10000x multiplier game ($1mil) and with around 64% I'll lose it and will think what would be my life if I'd won it. But I can't prep for it. If that would happen in my life, it would be a really big emotional stress and a rollercoaster, that just would have a great effect. Reading about something and experiencing it in your life - totally different things.

One more important insight. When I showed my 100s graph for the week to the coach:

He asked me to filter 3Handed games:

He explained to me that when we run badly 3handed, then there is no chance to realize our advantage in HU, so this leads to bigger downswings. Quite an obvious thing, that made a lot of sense to me.

Very intessting and good discussion
I have made simulations for 100er BLAST with 20 ChipEV and 75% RB in more than 70% you must expect a 100-BI Downswing.

And with 85% RB it isn't mutch better. To 90% you must expect a Downswing greater than 74-BI.

Simulations Games sample 10.000 Games

GL an the Tabels

Originally posted by PokerSpass
Very intessting and good discussion
I have made simulations for 100er BLAST with 20 ChipEV and 75% RB in more than 70% you must expect a 100-BI Downswing.

Thanks for your efforts my mac doesn't allow me to run it myself. Could you do a favor and run/share results for my "near future" 3K games sim?

I guess, the best I can do - is to bring my chipEV up, 22 is not even close to what is possible. I believe with a good routine 30 chipEV on this limit is quite doable

40K Profit Challange Week 2 Update

Profit Start of the Week 2: $4902
Profit End of the Week 2: $2179
Profit for the week: -$2723

Number of games: 407
Hours played: 15.25
Hourly rate: -$178

Rakeback: 53%

Wrong plays by GTO: 13.7%

Overall impression
This is the first negative week for me in the last 2 months. I felt like it should come at some point, but wasn't prepared for it mentally. Downstreak was the main and central topic - lots of emotions and self-reflection happen during "red days" and I'm glad that it happened. I embrace the variety of feelings Poker brings in my life. I don't want it to be only about success and wins, though it would be nice to have those more around. )

Life felt very intense this week. On the job I have a quiet intense period at the end of the quarter with planning, strategizing next quarter goals, and performance evaluation process, downstream brought high intensity outside of the work, that distracted me nicely, and on top of that we had a great family time with my mother in law and later my father visiting us. So combining all those factors I felt very alive, pushing myself to a new level of performance, and felt very engaged in everything I do. Accumulated, some slept debt, though will pay it back somewhen in the future

I learned a few things about myself this week:

- I have a strong trigger for "missed opportunities". It is hard for me to skip a day and thoughts about other players getting my Leaderboard bonuses, without me even taking a shot, causing me big discomfort. I'm a very opportunistic kinda guy. This is my leak and I'd like to work on this side of me - weighting what is best in the given situation and my priorities and try to suppress the feeling that I'm losing so much when I choose alternatives. It is hard with poker when you know your hourly rate or average daily win and consider it high - then choosing to take a break or meet a friend would cost you those "missed money". How would you put a price tag on a day off, or sharing a beer with a friend to make it an equal comparison?

- I have low confidence in my strategy, game, and general approach. When downstreak hit - my all beliefs were questioned and I had no good arguments to prove I'm right in the internal dialog. Big thanks to the community (I got really a lot of replies here to support me and that this dowstreak is a normal thing - thank a lot for this), Barry who wrote about it in the news, my coach that checked if everything is in place. All this support got my confidence back to a decent level.

- That ambitious goal ($40K in profit) I set for myself, has a negative effect when things are not going my way and I am behind. Instead of taking time to slow down, I felt the need to catch up and win back.

Highlights of the week:

- The best support from the community and my coach. You rock!

- I finally got green day at the very end with a stunning 103 chipEV / tournament. I decreased amount of tables from 4 to 2 and it made a huge difference in the pace and quality of decisions.

- Added a new tool in my toolbox - CoffeeHUD ( https://husng.com/content/coffeehud-0). The coach said it is critical for the HU game analysis and I definitely can see why. Watch-out opponents, HU will never be the same between me and you again ♠_cool:

Lowlights of the week:

- I'm cutting corners on the learning routines. Don't feel like I'm doing enough, I prioritize play over study when there is no time.

- I haven't done deep dive analysis of the GTOWizard mistakes as I set the goal for it for this week. I'll have tomorrow to do it and still meet the deadline. It is just such a massive manual task, that I'm procrastinating on it. I haven't progressed on this KPI (13.7% this week, compared to 13.4% last week). I don't like, where this trend is going

- 888Poker thought that 6K in Leaderboards is too much and changed it to 5K with no communication, announcement or even a simple "sorry, we don't have money" apology. I got the answer to my question in the last report "121.6% RB - is it even legal?". We'll see how this will affect the RakeBack level. Got 53% back this week.

Charts and screenshots for the week:

Good luck to everyone at the tables. :f_drink::f_drink::f_drink:

P.S. As always - feel free to comment and share your thoughts!

Really really nice blog to read. Hope you will get an upswing soon.

Also was thinking about starting with a 100$ bankroll the 1$ blasts but think this would be a little bit to early. Also on these limit you start with 15 bb. Don't think these games are beatable. Maybe starting the 2€ if bankroll grows up to 300$.

Originally posted by Kostja007
Really really nice blog to read. Hope you will get an upswing soon.

Also was thinking about starting with a 100$ bankroll the 1$ blasts but think this would be a little bit to early. Also on these limit you start with 15 bb. Don't think these games are beatable. Maybe starting the 2€ if bankroll grows up to 300$.

Thanks, I appreciate the compliment! Had 2 green last days - hope the downswing is in the past now. ))
Can't give an advice for the 1$ - never grind them seriously, started right away from 5s and 10s. But my guess is that it will be about push/fold on 888Poker as the "normal" 2x and 3x games start 7bb deep, and "deep" games are 15bb as far as I reckon. Leaderboards on those limits are brutal - so many people for not so much money. But everything is doable - my advice would be to start and take it from there. If it won't work, regroup and rethink the strategy...:truestory:

The more I'm posting on PokerStrategy and browsing it the more I find value in blogging and the poker community. Today I found this gem here. How often you would find a Uni professor that blogs about his passion staying anonymous for his students not to find out about his "sinful passion"?
I can relate to this as I'm a manager in a big organization and experience the same feelings about my direct reports. I think it is a matter of time before they find out as I put a picture to my interview article and had an internal decision to merge those two worlds.

I really like how poker unfolds in my life this time. It brings me fulfillment, interest, and challenges all at the same time.

It is one of those rare moments in life, where I really like where I am, and what I do and am excited about what will come next.

Have a great week everyone!

Originally posted by Studentishe
How do you cope with downstreaks?

In my case I take a break 2-3 days, go away with family and disconnect from poker. Spending time with family really helps me to cope with what is more important for me.

I was wondering how do you calculate your chip ev roi as you sometimes start with 500 chips and sometimes with 300. What chipev do you need to be at least breakeven on 1$ blasts? 9% Rake

How to calculate?

Originally posted by mariussica88
In my case I take a break 2-3 days, go away with family and disconnect from poker. Spending time with family really helps me to cope with what is more important for me.

Friends and family rock! Don't think I could do it without my significant other and friends. This is the main source of meaning and support in my life.