Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

For every action there is an opposite reaction. For every force there is a counterforce. For every plus, a minus. For every down, an up.

I loved prancing around PS's many and varied forums bestowing my Platinum-backed wisdom with magnanimous grace on the Bronzes, the Silvers, even the Golds. "The wearer of these garbs is an important person," my Platinum coated chain-mail seemed to say, as I swished and swayed here and there dispensing my pearls.

Well, now I'm Silver again. And with my ignominious demotion goes any credo or respect I once commanded in these great halls of poker-lore.

Right. Self indulgent swoon over.

The opposite reaction in this particular case is this: I'm playing less tables, and generating less rake and yet...wait for it...making more money. That's right, folks; for me, less really is more.

The main purpose of this post is to note two mini achievements: 1). I have pushed my BR over the $1000 mark once more, having withdrawn over $400 recently; and 2). I'm shortly going to be moving up to NL25 Short Handed, having successfully beaten NL10 over a small sample.
The SnGs continue well - a set of 4 $11 earlier this evening yeilding a first place and a second place for a clear $30 profit - and the Take 2 promo and PS rakeback on Tilt has helped me the remaining bit of the way.
$1000 gives me 40 BI at NL25 SH which is pretty comfortable for me, I think. I'm cautiously optimistic that this level will be beatable too. Having passed through NL25 on my way up to NL100 while shortstacking I saw that there are plenty of poor players at this limit and I don't suppose things will be too different short-handed. Overconfidence being a deadly sin, however, I shall keep my wits about me and try not to tussle too hard with the thinking regs...

I'll also nip back to the earlier post with my goals and note progress to date. Thanks for reading, as always.

BR: $1004.63
Total Poker Earnings: $1493.99
Total cashed out to date: $489.36
Overall SnG ROI: 10.553% (569 games total)
ROI last 100 gms: 18.85%
ROI last 50 gms: 30.6%
Cash Games: Up 2.3 BI @ NL10 SH (8.38BB/100) (2823 hands)
[My All in EV gives me 1 additional stack]
Cash Games overall @ microstakes 16.4BB/100 (3811 hands)

Hey Tim!

Nice to hear your SH gridning is starting off well. I'm contemplating trying it out in the near future as well. NL25 will be a piece of cake for sure =D

Good luck mate.

Because I have to do everything differently, my month runs from 12 Sept to 11 Oct. Well, it's mostly that 12 September was the date when I restarted my poker career on Full Tilt with a different set of and goals - as foretold in these pages.

So, as at 16:19 on 11 October the following is a true and accurate record of my poker progress over the last month...

Total winnings: $338.10.

% change in BR vs starting BR of $810: 41.7% increase.

Profit breakdown:

SnGs: $211.10 (62.4% of total);
Rakeback: $61.96 (18.3% of total);
NL BSS: $42.05 (12.4% of total);
Miscellaneous untracked winnings: $22.99 (6.8% of total)

Poker winnings as a proportion of total earnings: 14.45%

Garphs:

NL BSS

SnG winnings

Current BR: $1080.92

Things continue well for me, despite a recent short sharp downswing on NLSH which has me running $100 below EV over about 10K hands.

The SnGs are running riot at the moment with some sick ROI at the $11+1: 31% ROI after 80 tourneys for an hourly rate of over $22.

Overall ROI after 600 trnys now up over 15%.

The other thing I noticed is that I seem to be hitting set after set at the moment, but hardly ever running into them myself. Soon to change, no doubt...

Most annoying cooler recently was losing a stack with J :heart:Q after calling a raise and then flopping 3 for a made flush. Donated a stack to the lucky owner of A :heart:5 ...

Anyway, time to mark a new high water mark for my BR with some more stats:
BR: $1289.10
Total Poker Earnings: $1778.46
Total cashed out to date: $489.36
Overall SnG ROI: 15.744% (613 games total)
ROI last 100 gms: 35.94%
ROI last 50 gms: 45.8%
Cash Games: (NL25 SH) 11.18BB/100BB (3430 hands)

Thanks for reading. Next post will be after I lose half my BR in a massive downswing/tilt-fest in all probability ♦

I just won my first ever MTT. It was only a 27 man $6.50 Turbo on Full Tilt but no $65 payout has ever made a man feel wealthier.

The last 3 or 4 days before this had seen a bit of a downswing and a levelling off of my SnG ROI so this was a welcome relief. Got so much more than my share of the luck, too. After being basically card dead, with nothing better than ATs earlier on my chip stack had dwindled alarmingly. It was time to start pushing:

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$100/$200 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

Known players:
[tg]MP2$2145.00:///////;MP3$3410.00:///////;CO$5530.00:///////;BU(Hero)$980.00:///////;SB$1980.00:///////;BB$1875.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BU with A:h, 8:c.
3 folds, Hero raises to $980.00(All-In), SB folds, BB calls $780.00.

Flop: ($2060) 9:d, 9:s, 2:s (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

Turn: ($2060) A:s (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($2060) J:h (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $1280.

Villain shows 7 :diamond:7

(Preflop equity: 43.5%)

The next hand to be pushed couldn't have been worse:

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$300/$600 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

Known players:
[tg]UTG2$1560.00:///////;MP1$4915.00:///////;MP2$3655.00:///////;MP3$4755.00:///////;CO$8760.00:///////;BU(Hero)$2010.00:///////;SB$3950.00:///////;BB$8860.00:///////;UTG1$2035.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BU with J:d, 7:h.
6 folds, Hero raises to $2,010.00(All-In), SB folds, BB calls $1,410.00.

Flop: ($4320) J:s, J:c, A:s (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

Turn: ($4320) 7:c (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($4320) 9:c (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $2910.

Villain shows J :heart:8

(Preflop equity: 34%)

Deciding it was time to gamble and using Phil Gordon's Rule of Pairs to tell me the chance of someone behind my having a higher pocket pair was less than 50%, I pitched my crabs and ran into AK. The flip, though, was mine:

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$300/$600 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

Known players:
[tg]UTG1$1560.00:///////;UTG2$4915.00:///////;MP1$3655.00:///////;MP2$4755.00:///////;MP3$8760.00:///////;CO(Hero)$4320.00:///////;BU$3650.00:///////;SB$6850.00:///////;BB$2035.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3:c, 3:s.
5 folds, Hero raises to $4,320.00(All-In), BU folds, SB raises to $6,850.00, BB folds.

Flop: ($11770) 8:h, 6:c, 4:c (0 players)
SB gets uncalled bet back.

Turn: ($11770) 2:h (0 players)
SB gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($11770) J:h (0 players)
SB gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $4920.

Villain shows A :spade:K

(Preflop equity: 50.8%)

Not satisfied with that high wire act, I decided it was time to wrestle with AK once again. I think my shove here is pretty terrible - but at least I wasn't going to be dominated...

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$600/$1200 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BB$5110.00:///////;MP3$9025.00:///////;CO(Hero)$5610.00:///////;BU$7400.00:///////;SB$13355.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:h, 7:h.
MP3 folds, Hero raises to $5,610.00(All-In), BU raises to $7,400.00(All-In), 2 folds.

Flop: ($14810) 4:d, 7:s, 3:s (0 players)
BU gets uncalled bet back.

Turn: ($14810) 7:c (0 players)
BU gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($14810) 7:d (0 players)
BU gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $7410.

Villain shows A :spade:K (again)
(Preflop equity: 37.4%) Quads on the river. It had to be my day...

I even won with the worst of it when having to make an any two odds call:

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$600/$1200 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$3310.00:///////;SB$7825.00:///////;BB(Hero)$14820.00:///////;MP3$1790.00:///////;CO$12755.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4:h, 3:c.
MP3 raises to $1,790.00(All-In), 3 folds, Hero calls $590.00.

Flop: ($4180) 9:c, 2:c, A:c (0 players)
Hero gets uncalled bet back.

Turn: ($4180) 4:c (0 players)
Hero gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($4180) A:s (0 players)
Hero gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $3590.

Villain shows K :diamond:5
(Preflop equity: 34%)

Finding myself on the final table against the guy my 33s had creamed earlier, I found myself making a pretty wicked bluff:

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$800/$1600 No-Limit Hold'em (3 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$8850.00:///////;SB(Hero)$11100.00:///////;BB$20550.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is SB with A:s, 9:s.
BU folds, Hero raises to $3,200.00, BB calls $1,600.00.

Flop: ($6400) Q:c, K:d, 8:s (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $3,200.00, Hero raises to $7,900.00, BB folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $9600.

In retrospect I'm not a big fan of this move but, hey, it worked and who knows, A-high might even have been good.

At this point, my luck ran out when my A3o push ran into AQs, three handed. Now we were back to being evenly stacked.

Then, only a couple of hands later, the shortie with 9700 chips push into me and the big stack. Looking down at JJ and my 14000 chips I repushed and saw that I was up against AK yet again. Once more, I won my coin flip to go heads up the previous chip leader.

A few hands later, evenly stacked, it was my turn to get dealt AK. I made it a 2BB raise and got a call....

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$1000/$2000 No-Limit Hold'em (2 handed)

Known players:
[tg]SB(Hero)$19750.00:///////;BB$20750.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is SB with K:s, A:d.
Hero raises to $4,000.00, BB calls $2,000.00.

Flop: ($8000) 9:d, Q:s, 2:s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero raises to $15,750.00, BB calls $15,750.00.

Turn: ($39500) 7:s (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($39500) A:h (0 players)
BB gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $23750.

Villain shows Q :club:8

Well, I couldn't really have played the hand worse. Slowplayed my monster, got my money in bad - only a 27% favourite to win - and still my luck held out. An Ace on the river has never been sweeter.

True, if I play like this in future, it will probably be the only tournament I ever win. But for once the bad beat monster is forgiven and I'll have to stop moaning about being born unlucky.

♦

BR: $1250.35
Overall SnG ROI: 9.026% (732 games total)

Originally posted by Tim64
I loved prancing around PS's many and varied forums bestowing my Platinum-backed wisdom with magnanimous grace on the Bronzes, the Silvers, even the Golds. "The wearer of these garbs is an important person," my Platinum coated chain-mail seemed to say, as I swished and swayed here and there dispensing my pearls.
Well, now I'm Silver again. And with my ignominious demotion goes any credo or respect I once commanded in these great halls of poker-lore.

hehe that is so well written!
the same thing happened to me.
and for me less is also more i started making nice profits after i stopped heavy multitabling.

i am happy to see you are doing well ♦

keep it up!

Today me and the wife stepped out for some lunch at Raymond Blanc's Brasserie Blanc in town. We took the £11.99 'Dine with Wine' menu each and I got nearly all the wine as the wife is about to become a mother and pregnancy and booze don't go very well together. We had potted smoked salmon and chicken liver salad to start, pan-fried wing of ray and pork collar with flagelot beans for our mains. Puddings were panacotta and gooey chocolate sponge. We were treating the lunch as the last time we get to eat out together before the baby arrives - any day now - so we made the most of it. We won't have another chance for about... ooh... 20 years.

Feeling a bit relaxed by now, I spend a pleasant hour messing about with $2.2 HU SnGs as part of one of FTP's Academy challenges. Then it was time to get down to work with the $11 Turbo SnG sets. 20 SnGs today brought me a comfortable profit and my winnings have gone north of my EV line - which is the way I like it. (I have to be honest - I'd rather have the money than the mathematically correct result ♦ )

My plan is not to move up to the $22+2 Turbo SnGs until I have 60BI for that limit. (Incidentally, if anyone out there in PS land thinks that's not conservative enough - please shout now). After today though, I got one step closer.

@Raun: Thanks my friend - nothing gives me more pleasure that to know that people are enjoying the fruit of my tapping fingers. Long live the card-sharping scrib!

Updated Stats

BR: $1426.39
Total Poker Earnings: $1915.75
Total cashed out to date: $489.36
Overall SnG ROI: 11.15% (613 games total)
ROI last 100 gms: 11.85%
ROI last 50 gms: 29.5%

Hi Tim64,

looks like ur doing well on the 11s! congrats on the baby!

haha im a nit and i think 60BIs is very aggressive for the 22+2s.

do you use any tracking software?

would love to take a look at one of your graphs/sharkscope.

whats your biggest down-swing in the 11s so far?

seems like you have a great ROI but only over 600 games.

how many tables do you play at a time?

Thanks!
<3

Hi Lessthanthreee,

Maybe we can do a sweat session some time - we can both learn a lot, I'm sure.

Skype: [edited].

Using HEM - not essential, but useful for: 1. identifying regs not to be tangled with without a monster and 2. fish whose crazy flop pushes I can sometimes call.

Biggest downswing is about 18BI (200$) - see graph from trny 140 to 175. Only played 250 of the 11$ so it's a pretty small sample. Longest spell without a cash was 12 trnys. I definintely think swings bigger than this will come but 60BI seems comfortable and if I have to move down to regain confidence and/or prevent hemhoraging too many $, I will - no problem (had to do it a bunch of times at SSS). I'm just too impatient to wait for 100BI before moving up...

Current overall ROI for 11$ is 11.5% or 10.7% adjusted for luck factor according to HEM. I'm hoping that ROI is directly proportionate to buyin. Therefore 11% at $11 and 55% at $55. ♦

Graph below as requested:

Hi Tim!

Added you on skype

I would love to get a sweat session going. maybe in a couple of weeks we can organise one

nice graph! im looking forward to 3 figure swings (sigh!)

by the time i move up to the 11s you will probably be at the 22s. hopefully i can inherit some great advice in the future from yourself

what are the players like on the 11s compared to the 6s?

@<3:

yeah, nasty downswing at the moment - 20BI. Sucks to see all that profit slip away...

Still, I try to stay upbeat. There are plenty enough bad players to make this limit profitable, though a solid 10+% ROI is looking like a much tougher prospect than when I last posted. Play seems a little tighter and more likely to get 3bet pf rather than flatted. But not a huge improvement. $10 is still an 'ideal' gambling amount for many recreational players.

I never answered your qn about table numbers. I was playing 5, now 6 tables, in sets. Can't cope with more than that. I already see a reduction in my ability with 6 vs 4 tables, but I hope the increased tables counteracts...

You may catch up as I still need 25BI at this limit before I move up, now that I've dropped down.

what's your skype?

if i were you i would start playing 4 or 5 tables again until i got out of that downswing.

So, as mentioned earlier, I'm enjoying a juicy 20BI downswing at the moment. Nothing new to me after my days on SSS. See garph:

The difference is that I'm better able to cope with it now, knowing as I do that this is a genuine downswing and not just bad play on my part. The red EV line on the graph indicates I should be a good $225 dollars better off than I am and that my EV ROI is closer to 8.5% than the 3% I'm currently on for the $11+1s.

What does this mean? Nothing much, except that if I continue to be patient and play well, the green line will eventually catch up.

I think some kind of objective analysis of the luck factor in Poker is almost mandatory for regular players. At least, without one you'd have to be a whole lot more selfconfident in your play than I am...

BR $1214.72

Well, the last mentioned downswing has paused just long enough for me to hit my BR target for moving up to the next level of Turbo SnGs, the $22+2s. It seems a long time ago, now, that I was playing the $2.25s...

My career earnings have pipped the $2,000 mark too, and that feels pretty good.

I'm still on a fairly small $/hr at the moment - around $6.00. Not nearly enough to live on but moving in the right direction, however slowly. I have considered adding more tables but I just don't want to get back into that exhausting mental exerise of trying to keep up with all that action at the same time and never ever being able to do more than play ABC. I like being able to make occasional plays against suitable opponents, and that takes observation and patience. So I will continue to sacrifice $/hr for ROI in the hope my ability continues to increase.

I'm here for the long term, I think, and so it doesn't much matter to me when or if I will ever get to the level where I can support my family. I have already got to the stage where the average month gives me enough pocket money to keep me in bottled beer from across the pond (Sam Adams, if you want to know), while also keeping the house warm during the coming UK winter. And maybe that's all it will ever be. But it's not nothing. Not nothing, at all.

So, wish me luck for the road ahead and join me in saying a (shortlived) farewell to the $11+1s. A farewell that will last right up until the Full Tilt boss reaches over from his leather covered armchair, strokes his fluffy white cat, and flicks on the doomswitch that will send me swooping down once more - down the tracks of the variance rollercoaster.

Bankroll $1514
SnG ROI ($11+1): 7.2%
Total Poker earnings = $2004.00

haha farewell 11s! congratulations Tim! good luck on the 22s and enjoy the ride!

3 figure downswings being 'normal' would take a good amount of time to get used to

Thanks <3!

I'm happy to report that I've started well. Just played a set of 4 trnys, with two $11+1 and two $22+2s. (Yeah, I know: so much for "farewell $11+1s" - what can I say? I'm a scaredycat who needs his security blanket to start off with... ♦ )

Anyway, busted out of one of the $11s on the wrong end of a flip and only managed 3rd place in the second one. But stormed the $22s, getting 1st place in both! Beginner's luck, of course, but seeing my BR jump by $150 in just 40 minutes is a pretty luvvverly feeling ♠_biggrin:

BR $1660.66
Monthly profit to date (11/10 - 01/11): $579.74
Pride level: HIGH ♠_cool:
Likelyhood of Pride coming before a fall: HIGHER

haha nice work! you will have to fill me in on the level of play in the 22s after you get a decent sample size

Today I crossed the 1,000 tournament mark.

I played my very first SnG on Party Poker on 9 March 09. It was a 3$ regular and I won it. I have never enjoyed any poker winnings as much as that first $12 (and that includes the $99 first place prize I got 20 minutes ago on a $22+2). In fact, as it turned out, the first 3 SnG tournaments I played in, I won. I couldn't believe it - it seemed I had found the perfect alternative to SSS and an instant way to make $$$.

Well, of course after that I lost a bunch of tournaments and reality set in. But I also know I made the right decision to leave SSS. I'm going to see how high I can climb on the SnG ladder. Ultimately, I'd like to play the $50+5 turbos for a living, but whether that's achievable, I've no idea at the moment. One step at a time. One step at a time.

Anyway, today I can anounce a 'career' SnG ROI of 9.5% over 4 different limits after 1002 tournaments (well, what kind of title would "1002 Tournaments" have been, anyway??).

My $/hr are creeping up over $10 now and, if/when I can get to the equivalent of £10 GBP/hr, then that will be a pretty major achievement. Because, if I can do that, it means my family will never have to go hungry again. And I can't imagine something more momentous than that.

Bankroll $1678.09
Overall SnG ROI: 9.49%
SnG ROI ($22+2): 23.8% (32 trnys)
Dollars per hour at $22+2: $34.74/hr
Total Poker earnings = $2167.45

If you don't know who Gavin Smith is, have a look:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Smith

Here's the hand:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-hand-converter/handreplayer/hands/169481

edit The PokerStrategy handreplayer thinks I won this hand so someone in the know better take a look and get it fixed...

$15/$30 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

Known players:
[tg]MP3$1455.00:///////;CO$1365.00:///////;BU$1560.00:///////;SB$1575.00:///////;BB$1440.00:///////;UTG1$1500.00:///////;UTG2$1500.00:///////;MP1(Hero)$1605.00:///////;MP2$1500.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T:s, T:h.
2 folds, Hero raises to $90.00, 2 folds, CO calls $90.00, BU folds, SB calls $75.00, BB folds.

Flop: ($300) A:d, T:d, Q:d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $200.00, CO raises to $1,275.00(All-In), SB folds, Hero calls $1,075.00.

Turn: ($2850) J:c (0 players)
Hero gets uncalled bet back.

River: ($2850) 2:d (0 players)
Hero gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $1775.

Gavin Smith shows: A :club:J

I guess you know you're on your way when when you start getting Full Tilt Pros to get their money in bad but suck out anyway...

Take it easy all,
Tim

There are two kinds of breakeven. The first is the kind of breakeven when you play a session and at one point you're up and then at another you're down, but basically you end up where you started: at $0.00

It's interesting how differently we can feel after this sort of breakeven session.

If you play 200 hands and spend the first 100 hands riding the crest of a heater and the second 100 hands getting sucked out to kingdom come, your breakeven finish will feel like someone socked you in the jaw with a wet haddock.

But, just reverse the order of things - suckouts first, good run of cards second - and you feel like you just dodged a bullet: you're likely to be pretty happy with how things turned out.

Put simply, climbing all the way to top of the mountain and then losing your footing and slipping down the other side feels horrid. But losing your footing on the edge of a ravine, tumbling down to the bottom and then climbing your way out feels pretty good. Weird, isn't it?

Well, what about the second kind of breakeven? Well, that's where you lost hundreds of dollars over the course of three months stubbornly playing SSS for rakeback bonuses and then, finally, made that money back by playing SnGs for two months. You can read about my being $750 down on page 4 (One Thousand Dollars). Although it was silly to do so, I always felt angry that my only profits during that period came from rakeback - that I was actually a losing player. So I've been keeping tabs on the money I've made actually playing poker (i.e. excluding any bonuses) and, finally, a couple of days ago, I made it into the black.

I can proudly announce that my non-bonus poker winnings stand at...

...wait for it....

+$98.35

The day the " - " flipped to a " + " was a pretty good one. Let's see how long I can keep it that way.

BR: $1801.69
Total Poker Earnings: $2291.05
(Of which $2291.05 less $98.35 is bonus/rakeback )