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Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

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conall88
Joined: 02.01.2009

congrats on the new arrival, tis magic =)

just read through your blog, 3 tabling .2/.5 CAP tables on FTP, thought i'd kill some time :).

have you tried cap tables yet? SSS is pretty close to optimal on cap tables, but lets you expand into BSS a bit, and also a few other hands thanks to capped pots (30bb contribbed by each player max), you might wanna try it out, its also a fish magnet! ( am currently on 2 tables of which, all the players are fish, and i'm only tag on the tables, and this is a common occurance .

i'd love to rail you when you play some SnG's, I'm normally an SnG player, but have had a horrible Roi over a small sample, and have decided to delay playing em until I have some confidence ( and a bigger roll).

add me on skype if you want, conall.ogribin is my nick.

I'm also in the pokerstrategy micro NL chatting group on skype

laters! :f_cool:


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

add me on skype if you want, conall.ogribin is my nick.

Added.

I think I have left SSS behind now, for good. Thanks for the tip though - the CAP tables can quite a good learning ground I think.

For BSS, definitely make it harder to play optimally imo - the playing of marginal hands for implied odds is pretty much impossible, it would seem.

@ Raun

you should be a writer Tim.

Well that was the plan... A completed novel sits brooding on my hard-drive, waiting to be offered up to the narrowed eyes and supercillious smirks of the publishers. I'd have sent it off long ago, if it weren't for a certain card game which blind-sided me a little under a year ago... ;)


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Some have argued about which peak is higher, Everest or K2, each located in the Himalayas - in Nepal and Pakistan respectively.

It was, after much furrowing of brows and stretching of tapemeasures and making feint pencil marks up the sides of the mountains, finally established that Everest was higher - by just over 200m.

They got it wrong, though. Today I reached the top of K2 (or $2,000 - as it is more commonly known in poker-playing moutaineering circles) and I can tell you it was a greater struggle than Hilary ever encountered.

True, I was never in much danger of losing my footing and sliding 2000m down a sheer ice face and, yes, the risk of frostbite sitting at my computer was on the low side, but still - the view from the summit showed the extent of patience and effort required.

So: >$2000 BR. Who cares that my SnG ROI is twice as high as HEM says it should be (according to my EV)?

Expect the next post from a crevasse around $1,100 (22,000 ft) - with me lying in the dark with a broken leg, a shredded rope, and twenty pairs of busted Aces at my feet.

BR $2026.59


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

What can I say? $400 above EV. I'd feel bad, but what good would that do? Alright, how bout this? If it gets to $1000 over EV, I'll go to confession.

Happy flipping!

BR: 2130.19


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you are a sick man Tim.

but i love it!


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conall88
Joined: 02.01.2009

zomg, GRAPH FORGERY!!!111

kidding :tongue:


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andyb43
Joined: 23.07.2008

Originally posted by Tim64

What can I say? $400 above EV. I'd feel bad, but what good would that do? Alright, how bout this? If it gets to $1000 over EV, I'll go to confession.

Happy flipping!

BR: 2130.19

You must be the guy all the whinging whining downswingers complain about in their trivelling posts..................


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Yeah, well as I say, I'm not going to feel guilty about it. I had to watch my BR drop from $800 to $200 in August due to sick variance the other way, so kind of think "it's my turn, now" (which, given we're talking about a computerised random number generator, is a pretty daft thing to say...)


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

This has been a month of extremes. Around the time of my daughter's birth, I was playing mostly cash games so that I could leave the table at any moment. Perhaps I was running bad, perhaps my concentration was elsewhere, perhaps I was just playing bad. Whatever, I dropped six stacks at NL 25 and vowed to stop playing cash games - they just didn't seem to agree with me.

Returning, fitfully, to SnGs - after we had brough our tiny baby home - things picked up. In fact, fairly soon I was on the back of a huge heater. At one point, I was 26BI over EV ($640). The bubble eventually burst and I went on a 28BI downswing (-$680). Just as, inevitably, I began to doubt myself, things turned around once again and I have ended the month over EV by more than $600.

There is a problematic side to all this good luck. While my actual ROI at the $22+2s after 427 tournaments is a very comfotable 11.7%, my real luck adjusted ROI is a paltry 5.6%. Even that is still equal to an hourly wage of $10, but it's much lower than the $21/hr wage I've actually enjoyed (and, most significantly, not nearly enough to live on). Over such a small sample, it's hard to say exactly what this means. I have been aware of a sick amount of suckouts coming my way so I have definitely been running well. On the other hand I sense that I have run into big hands more often than one would normally expect and so, when my pocket 77s outflop pocket QQs, the effect of the EV difference is magnified (even though my push with 77s in the particular circumstance was quite correct from a stack/blind/position perspective. On the whole, I'm inclined to give myself the benefit of some of the doubt and estimate my ROI for this limit at somewhere inbetween, say 8.5%. And if that's anywhere near right, I can live with it.

Heater or no heater, my monthly winnings nearly scraped the glass ceiling of $1,000. At $978.28, they represent an increase on the month's starting BR of 55.8%

My total BR now stands tantalisingly close to $3k and, with the required 75BI for the $33+3 Turbos, I am ready to move up. Chenny8888 wisely suggested that I should have 100BI for even the $22+2s, so goodness knows what he would think of this. Well, I had a 62.5BI requirement for the $22s and so 75BI for the next limit represents a 20% increase and I think this is not too unreasonable, but we'll see. Experiencing the above $600 swings, both up then down, puts me on notice that I can expect the same and worse at the $33s, but I think I'm ready to cope with it. Mentally, I feel pretty strong and such swings are inevitable. One day I hope not to even notice them as I play perfect poker in a Zen-like trance, divorced from all financial considerations. :rolleyes:

I've just played my first set of four $33s. They seem a little tighter but with more preflop 3betting so will take some adjustment. I crashed out of 3 but came first in the last one. The payday of $148.50 from a single tournament is kind of an incredible thing, when you compare it to grinding $2 short stacks - something many of us started our poker careers doing.

Next update will include a plan. I hope to break the $1000 monthly earnings barrier
in December, while starting out on the journey towards the $55+5 tournaments, the pinnacle of which stands barely in sight - around $3000 away in BR terms. I also hope to cement a $20/hr earning potential and for this to be backed up by a decent EV-adjusted ROI, not just by dumb luck. And, most difficult of all, I have to find a way to talk my wife round to the idea that this poker thing might actually be quite profitable...

Summary
BR $2728.97
Overall SnG ROI (1.4k games): 10.04%
SnG ROI for 22+2s (427 games): 11.7%
$/hour for 22+2s: $21.64/hr
Planned BR requirement for next limit ($55+5s): 90BI

Thanks for reading.
-Tim 64


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wishing you the best of luck on the 33s Tim!

<3


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vladd20
Joined: 22.10.2008

hi tim,nice job so far keep up the good work


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LgWz
Joined: 26.05.2007

GL with the move up!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Thanks for the kind wishes of luck. Unfortuately it seems my luck has run out...

The $33's are really caning me so far. I'm around 15 BI down after 175 tourneys. I'm also running pretty badly: ROI = -9.0%; Luck adjusted (real) ROI = .03%.

So, while B/Even would be nothing to shout about on its own, it would at least be preferable to the -$550 loss I've incurred. Having started out well on this limit, my BR high point was actually over $3000 so it really hurts to see a third of that wiped out.

I know I've been running well up till now, though, so I mustn't be too down about things - it's just my time, I guess. Today saw my worst single day's loss since I started poker: down $550 for the day...

I'm coping with it ok, I think. I still believe it's possible for me to build my BR to the point where I can play the $55s. It might just take more time that I thought, a month ago. I'm beginning to be more realistic about long term ROI as well. 10% was always the magic figure I had in mind but now I think that 5% is more realistic. (Which means I have to play twice as long for the same return; or twice the tables - yikes!)

At least I'm using the downswing as the catalyst for more learning. I'm just starting to make use of SNGEGT as a way of raising my game and if I find it's helping, I may invest in SnGWizard eventually. Thanks to all the guys on the SnG forum - great to have all that advice and sanity to keep me on the right track.

Anyway, time to go - belated Merry Xmas to you all and let's hope 2010 sees everything come together pokerwise.

BR: 2158.10


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very sorry to hear about your swing at the 33s Tim. you definitely know your stuff and im confident we can both move through the limits together.

i think sng wiz is definitely something you must invest in for mid stakes to improve your game.

im moving up to the 22s in a few days and would love to exchange ideas. i know we could help each other through the limits and beyond :) let me know when ur free, i would love to pick your brain with advice on the 22s :)

remember to study your game more and more especially after a downswing. study will lead to results. you have the talent :)


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LgWz
Joined: 26.05.2007

I feel your pain, swings start to get really sick at $30+ :f_frown:

There will be great days of huge income though, just stay on the track! And get Wiz it's really helpful!

Oh, and you've been in Brazil? How was it?


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Thanks guys - good to know I not the only one enduring the swings of sng life. Not so long ago I was 20 stacks over EV on the 22s and it's important to remember those good times so we don't think luck is being unfair to us.

@lessthanthreee, really want to do a session review so here's some potential times:

tomorrow, wednesday, 10.30 pm UK time

Gererally, fridays are the best days as I don't work and I'm 'allowed' to play poker ;o)

Most evenings - after 10pm - are pretty good and weekdays during the early afternoons are also good but bad for Antipodeans, I reckon...

Let me know...


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let me know what those times translate into FTP server times tim. :) i have to find my mic so we can chat lol


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

ok, FTP server time is EST, so 5 hours behind gmt. So, when it's 10pm my time (good time for me, normally), it would be around 5pm on FTP

Find your mike - I need help!

:)


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Yesterday I went 15 tournaments without cashing. Minus $540, just like that. This morning, fellow SnG'er lessthanthree was kind enough to let me observe him playing a set or two. He promptly lost 20BI. Am I jinxed, or what???

Then, just now, I played a set of 6 $33+3 tourneys and cashed in five of them. Yes, five.

I mean, just how sick is that?

It's like that dumb school yard game, 'Tag,' where you run around touching other kids (in a totally legal non-sexual way, of course). You have to pass on this imaginary disease or whatever to the other kid - like a curse - and then he tries to pass it on to someone else.

So, alls I can say, lessthanthree, is this: find someone else to do a sweat session with pronto and pass that curse on to him as soon as he turns the other way!

I am so joyful that my EV line is positive (even though my actual ROI is -5% or 10BI down at this limit) I could cry. Graph below if it works...

BR: $2288.29


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Graph is not working.

Brilliant read, keep it up Tim, mental swings though. Atleast your mentally prepared for them heh :tongue:


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