Hey Tim!
I see you've done great progress here, mate! That's awesome. Keep up the good work and your poker earnings should soon exceed those of a full-time day job ♠_cool:
Do you ever play MTTs btw?
Best of luck!
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If a person can travel to a town called Tilt Resistance by any earthly means, then I ... just ... arrived.
To understand, first you need to see what I should be tilting about:
So, 850 tourneys into my time on the $33+3s Turbos, I am break even. Well, actually I have a ROI of 0.1% which I'm rather proud of ♦ Now, take a look at my EV line (that's the red one in case you haven't been here lately), you'll see that variance is giving me some kind of brutally sadistic kicking right now. I am 37BI below EV at this limit or $1322.00 down below where I should be.
But, sitting here with Leon's Manhattan washing over me, I couldn't feel calmer. It's hard to explain why exactly. But I think it's no more or less than this:
However big this current downswing is, two things are true: one, it will eventually end and I will win the money back that I have lost; and two, there will be a yet bigger downswing to cope with someday.
And isn't it the second of these truths that could really push you over the edge? The knowledge that, even if this swing doesn't turn around until I'm 50BI down or 100BI down, or even more - and is therefore so deep that I will think it's surely the worst downswing I'll ever have climb my way out of, if I do think that, I will be wrong. There will be a deeper darker swing up ahead. Maybe in a month, maybe in a year but eventually. And so, simply put, I have to be calm about this one, otherwise how will I cope with the next one?
Take it easy, guys, and don't let variance grind you down - it's only numbers and what harm is there in numbers?
over and out,
Tilt-Resistant Tim64
been there man. sooo sick that last trend tim. so sick indeed.
at least we can cling to the evil red line to give us hope.
hope it turns around for you soon. you will get your turn.
Hi Tim64! I've been following your blog for months - congratulations on the great success so far!
Downswings are always hurtful but you seem to have managed to close yourself down and not feel them at all, which is essential and very important for every serious player to master.
I, nevertheless, hope your swing will end soon.
Thanks, all, for the encouragement. The gap between whats due and what's true continues to grow. I'm now 40BI below EV on the $33s. EV ROI= 3.9%; ROI= -0.5%. A gap wich is as close as it comes to $1.5k.
I still feel pretty positive even while luck deserts me for a time. The downswing has in fact only lasted for less than 200 tourneys (or two and a half weeks) which is no time at all in SnG land, and certainly no cause for concern.
With my sweat partners I'm finding ways to laugh about even the grossest of suckouts - such as this:
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$100/$200 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Known players:
[tg]CO (Hero)$1055.00:///////;BU$615.00:///////;SB$2040.00:///////;BB$1515.00:///////;MP2$5895.00:///////;MP3$2380.00:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is CO with K:d, J:h.
MP2 calls $200.00, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $1,055.00(All-In), 3 folds, MP2 calls $855.00.
Flop: ($2410) T:c, 5:h, 5:s (2 players)
Turn: ($2410) T:d (2 players)
River: ($2410) 5:d (2 players)
Final Pot: $2410.
MP2 shows K :club:5 
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
(Hahahahahaa!)
I think it's a good sign that that's the first hand I've posted on this blog for a long time: the suckouts don't gnaw at me the way they used to. And I find my self grateful that players are willing to limp call K5s at this blind limit at all.
Wish me luck!
Tim64
we all burst out laughing because tim runs SO bad that not only did he hit his 3 outer. HE HIT ALL 3 OF HIS 3 outers!!! LOL
you are correct tim, the long run is a very very long time 
I managed a winning day for the first time in a long time, today. Clawed back 5BI on the $33+3 turbos and nearly 4 stacks on NL25 SH. My EV at both continues to be healthy; my actual winnings utterly hopeless. Graphs for both below:
$33+3 Turbo SnGs:
NL25 SH:
Not much I can do except be patient and keep studying. Sweat sessions with <3 and Lennonac continue to provide psycological and technical support (I fear we are becoming something of a mutual appreciation society) and I am doing a NL Holdem essential video course which is helping my understanding of key NL strategies and techniques and turning my abc short handed game into something a little more effective.
So, as a fellow Strategist is fond of saying: "Be Awesome!"
tim that swing on the 36s really makes me feel physically sick... definitely a very large swing and looks like you are still playing a strong game on the 36s.
Yes thats one of the worst swings I have seen for a while.
But like you say it is only a few sng's and I know your game is solid...only a matter of time before you hit that heater again ♦
Thanks both of you - it really does make me feel better
Btw, I finally figured out HEM red line and how it works. Posted an explanation in Gun's blog. Seems it takes account of situations where we're not even all in - e.g: 2 shorties on the bubble - one of them is us but we have slightly more chips. Other shortie pushes 72o into bigstack who calls with AA. Other shortie sucks out and next hand we bust. The red line will show that our $EV Won is more than our $ Won (assuming we go on to bust out) because in most cases in that situation the other shortie will bust and we get itm.
Thanks to Schris for this interesting e.g.!
Thats interesting Tim, I didnt realise that it accounts for the other players luck as well.
So i theory donkey big stacks are bad for our $ if they are not being donkey against us, no wonder there is so much varience in sng's
Hey ho... the suckouts continue. Anyway, I thought for some entertainment value, I'd set up a gentleman's book on how many BI I will fall below EV on the $36 tourneys before my luck changes. I am currently 48.46BI below EV (equiv $1744.49 down) on this limit.
The rules of the game are that I will need to reduce this deficit to 20BI below EV for it to be considered a true 'recovery'.
So, who will bet on what my low point will be before the recovery? I will hazard a guess that I will drop to 65BI at some point between now and the Recovery (it's gained capitals already - see?)
The person who gets the closest (whole buyin guesses only, please - no decimals) will receive an hour's free coaching. Though what that is actually worth, given my negative ROI, I have no idea ♦
Here's a graph to record the status quo:
As always, thanks for reading and don't worry - I'm not getting hysterical - my weak attempt at frivolity is the best way I know how to deal with this.
I am glad to see you are staying sane, and making light of it. That is what is making you a winning player right
now. You have your head in the right space and I was reading your last post and I had an idea. Do you recognize
any winning players at this limit yet? If you do, maybe you can shark scope some of them. The ones with a pile of
volume, and see what kind of shit they went through and what kind of swings they were getting.
(Ones with your same ROI)
I can not compare with your buy ins because I only play the $3.40s right now but it was a lughing stock today
for me as well.
There is a program on the net somewhere, you enter your roi and finish positions and it tells you the likelyhood of certain buyin downswings. at 5% roi I expect them to be big. I would guess after having seen this program in the past that 100 buyin downswings would be in the likelyhood of 10%
But you would need to find the program to be sure
