Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

Today I had a look at some of the hands where I hit a set on the flop to see whether I am maximising value. I posted a bunch of hands on the forum and hope to get some hints...

Today didn't go very well from a poker perspective:

Day 9: Time Played: 5.38 hours; Hands: 2940; Rake: $195.88; Profit/Loss: -$495.50.

Most of my losses came from preflop allins where I ran badly I also ran into a couple of sets and probably paid off my opponents more than I needed to.

I did make a couple of pretty nice call downs though:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($204)
Hero ($103)
UTG ($105)
CO ($140)
BTN ($108)

Dealt to Hero A♥ J♥

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.50

FLOP ($7) T♠ 9♥ 9♣

SB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

TURN ($18) T♠ 9♥ 9♣ T♦

SB bets $14, Hero calls $14

RIVER ($46) T♠ 9♥ 9♣ T♦ 3♠

SB bets $22, Hero calls $22

SB shows Q♦ 8♥
(Pre 35%, Flop 30.7%, Turn 18.2%)

Hero shows A♥ J♥
(Pre 65%, Flop 69.3%, Turn 81.8%)

Hero wins $87

I managed to scrape by with a small profit for my 5 1/2 hours work today:

Day 10: Time Played: 5.67 hours; Hands: 3028; Rake: $192.65; Profit/Loss: +$35.95

Had some very good sweat sessions today (thank you very much to those involved) and I definitely need to work on 3betting ranges in position. I think I also need to ensure I play a least one session each day with just 4 tables since it's really hard to experiment with different lines or actually think about spots when you're just being a multitabling rake generator.

On the plus side I have managed to hit my weekly rakeback target (at least within $10) so things are more or less on track -- at least if you ignore the losses!

A couple of check/raise bluffs went horribly wrong, however, and I need to find out if that was because of the board texture or something else. Also pointed out that I have lots of timing tells...

And the list goes on... and on

First month is always the hardest, things will start to turn as long as you keep up all the hard work you have been putting in ♦

Feel like I played my B++ game pretty much all day today which I'm really happy about. I made only one definite mistake where I couldn't find the fold on the river with trip Qs on a 9QQ8T bd vs a loose passive player and ended up losing $57 that I probably didn't need to:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($35)
BB ($111)
CO ($100)
Hero ($204)

Dealt to Hero K♣ Q♥

fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, BB calls $2.50

FLOP ($7.50) 9♠ Q♦ Q♣

BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

TURN ($21.50) 9♠ Q♦ Q♣ 8♠

BB checks, Hero bets $16, BB raises to $44, Hero calls $28

RIVER ($109) 9♠ Q♦ Q♣ 8♠ T♥

BB bets $57.25 (AI), Hero calls $57.25

BB shows T♦ J♥
(Pre 36%, Flop 13.7%, Turn 77.3%)

Hero shows K♣ Q♥
(Pre 64%, Flop 86.3%, Turn 22.7%)

BB wins $222

I guess I can definitely call the turn since I get almost the right price for my fh draw even excluding the rest of villain's stack. But then I talked myself into calling thinking he could even have KQ or QJ here as well as a straight.

Anyway other than that it was a really solid day and I felt like I was getting the balance right between bullying people off hands but letting things go when there was resistance. I also managed to win following nice pot:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($189)
BB ($43)
UTG ($35.75)
UTG+1 ($105)
CO ($85)
Hero ($149)

Dealt to Hero 6♦ 6♣

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, fold, Hero calls $3.50, SB raises to $14, BB calls $13, fold, Hero calls $10.50

FLOP ($45.50) 7♦ A♣ 6♠

SB checks, BB bets $29 (AI), Hero calls $29, SB raises to $175 (AI), Hero calls $106 (AI)

TURN ($345) 7♦ A♣ 6♠ 9♣

RIVER ($345) 7♦ A♣ 6♠ 9♣ 8♠

BB shows A♦ K♥
(Pre 34%, Flop 0.8%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows 6♦ 6♣
(Pre 42%, Flop 81.4%, Turn 92.9%)

SB shows 7♠ A♠
(Pre 24%, Flop 17.8%, Turn 7.1%)

Hero wins $342

I'm not 100% sure about pre, it's close - but I think the implieds are sufficient.

Day 11: Time Played: 4.87 hours; Hands: 3077; Rake: $213.63; Profit/Loss: +$559.35.

Tomorrow we have to go to a christening for one of my baby daughter's baby friends, so I won't be able to play much and next week generally is going to involve a fair amount of turmoil as we are moving house on Wednesday, but such is life - a break from poker for a few days is no tragedy.

Hey Tim,

Do you have a plan for all the FTP's and Ironman Medals you earn? (I didnt read about it yet) You must earn tons nowadays.

T.

Hi there Tampaloeres81,

Have a look at my other blog, but basically the plan is to spend both medals and points on tourney entries to build BR

save medals for cash bonus imo

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
save medals for cash bonus imo

+ 1

I was thinking about this too. You would release the $600 in 12 days or so (Think you earn 1000+FTP per day, well I do playing NL100-NL400).

I will cost you some RB but it will be +EV for sure.

T.

takes a lot of months to actually get 3k medals for the bonus in the first place. but cash bonus is always +EV

New House - Moved In

Just a quick note to say that we are installed in the new house.

The guy from Virgin media has just gone and we have phone, cable TV and a WIRED connection to the internet. Being wired is the ultimate luxury, imo.

The few days outage has put paid to Iron Man this month but otherwise things are looking good for a restart to the grind tomorrow. Im going to take today off to reduce the cardboard box stats and help get settled in.

I now have my own grind-pad (aka study) which will shortly be transformed into a poker shrine.

Let's go!
Tim64

Sweet! ♦

sounds awesome tim. try take some pics for us if u get a chance.

Originally posted by Tim64

The few days outage has put paid to Iron Man this month

Let's go!
Tim64

Don't you have some medals to purchase an Ironman day or two. Depending on how many consecutive months you have been running at your current Ironman level it may be worth losing 30 - 60 or w/e to protect it. Ironman only gets good when you manage consecutive months

Good luck dude

Apologies for the lack of specificity: I will make Gold Iron Man comfortably; just not Iron Iron Man ♦

Things not going brilliantly recently. I continue to post lots of hands on the forum and I feel like I am slowly improving, but the results have yet to catch up.

22/8: 1574 hands +$46.90
27/8: 3300 hands -$316.80
28/8: 3390 hands -$442.50

I am over 13 BI down since the start of my month. Even more frightening is my EV: -30 BI...

One hand I was quite pleased with today:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($106)
BB ($101)
UTG ($101)
UTG+1 ($40)
CO ($121)
Hero ($114)

Dealt to Hero K♣ A♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3, fold, BB calls $2

FLOP ($6.50) 2♠ 3♥ K♦

BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

TURN ($16.50) 2♠ 3♥ K♦ 2♣

BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

RIVER ($36.50) 2♠ 3♥ K♦ 2♣ 4♥

BB checks, Hero bets $21, BB raises to $55, Hero calls $34

Hero shows K♣ A♣
(Pre 76%, Flop 97.3%, Turn 100.0%)

BB shows T♠ A♥
(Pre 24%, Flop 2.7%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero wins $143

Recently it seems I have gone from calling too often to folding too often: calling station turned to nit. So often I have been in this exact situation (value betting three streets only to get raised on the River, calling, and then being shown the nuts), that I have started to get paranoid and just fold automatically.

In this hand I managed to take a moment to think about what hands my opponent could actually have that beat me. After realising that he was basically repping only 33, AA and KK (6+1+3 = 10 combinations in total) since its virtually inconceivable he calls two streets with 56 or A5, I decided it was overall more likely that he had the same hand as me or nothing. I'm not sure whether I would have come to this decision if villain had shoved...

Thankfully I had a note on this player that he was a big loser (-$4k) at this limit. And after seeing this hand, it's not hard to see why ♦

Just had another terrible day. with one or two exceptions, played like a complete mongrel.

Managed to tilt off $130 to my arch nemesis, POPMONSTER. This guy just has my number completely and I'm too stubborn to keep away from him. He's won thousands of dollars from lag fish like me

Earlier in the session he had 3bet people and happily barreled away with air. Then he does the same to me and of course this time he has aces. I'm posting this hand because it's just unforgivable for me to play like this.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($142)
BB ($266)
UTG ($100)
Hero ($152)
CO ($100)
BTN ($113)

Dealt to Hero 9♠ 9♥

fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, fold, SB raises to $13, fold, Hero calls $9.50

FLOP ($27) 4♠ 6♦ Q♠

SB bets $14, Hero raises to $50, SB raises to $129 (AI), Hero calls $79.20

TURN ($285) 4♠ 6♦ Q♠ 6♣

RIVER ($285) 4♠ 6♦ Q♠ 6♣ 5♦

Hero shows 9♠ 9♥
(Pre 19%, Flop 8.4%, Turn 4.5%)

SB shows A♠ A♣
(Pre 81%, Flop 91.6%, Turn 95.5%)

SB wins $282

This is tilt, pure and simple. His 3b from blinds is 15% and I know he cbets 100%, but still, what the hell am I doing?

Hands: 3408; Rake: $237.26; Profit/loss: -$138.70

As I edge closer to 100,000 hands at this limit, it becomes increasingly likely that I will have a negative win rate. One thing I have noticed is that on days when I flop sets less often than one would statistically expect, my win rate suffers. Probably that's the case for everyone but it annoys me that my winnings seem so dependent on making big hands. Consistently outplaying people at this limit seems beyond me at the moment...

Lyric from a Bruce Springsteen song. That's what you get in a blog by someone in their 30s...

So today was a much better day. I have adjusted my schedule somewhat to build in a couple of hours of study and I'm going back to basics by reviewing all the silver articles here and renewing my acquaintance with a certain training website.

Hands: 3118; Rake: $211.79; Profit/loss: +$483.20

A couple of nice hands from today, in both of which the River came to my rescue:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($201)
Hero ($162)
UTG ($160)
UTG+1 ($100)
CO ($100)
BTN ($130)

Dealt to Hero J♠ J♥

UTG raises to $3.50, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $15.50, UTG calls $12, SB calls $12

FLOP ($46.50) T♣ J♣ 7♥

SB checks, Hero bets $25, UTG raises to $75, SB raises to $185 (AI), Hero calls $121 (AI), UTG calls $70.05 (AI)

TURN ($484) T♣ J♣ 7♥ 2♥

RIVER ($484) T♣ J♣ 7♥ 2♥ T♠

SB shows 9♣ 8♣
(Pre 18%, Flop 65.6%, Turn 78.6%)

Hero shows J♠ J♥
(Pre 16%, Flop 29.1%, Turn 21.4%)

UTG shows K♠ K♣
(Pre 66%, Flop 5.3%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero wins $481

Here is the second one, my first ever royal flush. Even more satisfying when you get to stack the second nutz with it. Almost felt sorry for him - pretty sick cooler:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($133)
BB ($105)
UTG ($218)
Hero ($100)
CO ($109)
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero Q♦ J♦

fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, BTN calls $3.50, fold, fold

FLOP ($8.50) K♦ A♦ A♠

Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

TURN ($18.50) K♦ A♦ A♠ 5♦

Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

RIVER ($46.50) K♦ A♦ A♠ 5♦ T♦

Hero bets $34, BTN raises to $77.50 (AI), Hero calls $43.50 (AI)

Hero shows Q♦ J♦
(Pre 39%, Flop 4.4%, Turn 2.3%)

BTN shows A♥ K♥
(Pre 61%, Flop 95.6%, Turn 97.7%)

Hero wins $198

Originally posted by Tim64
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($133)
BB ($105)
UTG ($218)
Hero ($100)
CO ($109)
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero Q♦ J♦

fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, BTN calls $3.50, fold, fold

FLOP ($8.50) K♦ A♦ A♠

Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

TURN ($18.50) K♦ A♦ A♠ 5♦

Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

RIVER ($46.50) K♦ A♦ A♠ 5♦ T♦

Hero bets $34, BTN raises to $77.50 (AI), Hero calls $43.50 (AI)

Hero shows Q♦ J♦
(Pre 39%, Flop 4.4%, Turn 2.3%)

BTN shows A♥ K♥
(Pre 61%, Flop 95.6%, Turn 97.7%)

Hero wins $198

Sick beat ♦

Good for your EV-line because you get the money in good (if it ever cares)

T.

So I just logged on and noticed that I am now Diamond. Whoop!!
(The gap between my status and my poker knowledge increases one step further )

Things have been going along steadily the last few days -- no major ups -- no major downs.

Managed just over 4000 hands yesterday which is a personal record. Ran a little bit bad, though, to end three quarters of a stack down. But I did play one nice hand. Which is to say the hand had a nice result - I'm not sure if I played it well...

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($156)
BB ($196)
UTG ($278)
UTG+1 ($113)
CO ($100)
BTN ($125)

Dealt to Hero J♥ J♠

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, fold, Hero calls $3, fold

FLOP ($11.50) T♦ J♣ Q♦

Hero bets $11, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $33, Hero calls $22

TURN ($77.50) T♦ J♣ Q♦ 8♣

Hero checks, CO checks

RIVER ($77.50) T♦ J♣ Q♦ 8♣ 8♦

Hero checks, CO bets $63.50 (AI), Hero calls $63.50

CO shows T♥ T♣
(Pre 18%, Flop 6.8%, Turn 6.8%)

Hero shows J♥ J♠
(Pre 82%, Flop 93.2%, Turn 93.2%)

Hero wins $201

villain is a 20/16 reg. I don't think he bluff raises here, so I'm up against AK, another set, a made straight or - maybe, best, tp with a flush draw. I am not sure if I should be getting it in on the flop but I have a feeling that I'm not doing that well when I do.
Turn bricks and I guess we can exclude straights now, River makes fhs and flush draws. Not sure if I should bet - probably I should.

I have organised some coaching - weekly - because the last 100,000 hands of nl100 have made it clear to me that my game is several levels off what it needs to be. And since I want to give this a proper shot, I have to be willing to reinvest some of my meagre earnings into improving.

Thanks for reading

Didn't play too much today, just 2000 hands. Morning was taken up with my physiotherapy session (hopefully the last session for a while). Lovely warm evenings here at the moment...

Hands: 2186; Rake: $134.51; Profit/loss: +$2.80

Just sat in on the Silver coaching with Grummeler, amazing how useful it is to be reminded of the basics (especially when you are a diamond fish).

My favourite hand for today:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($100)
Hero ($100)
UTG ($160)
CO ($197)
BTN ($124)

Dealt to Hero K♠ A♥

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $7

FLOP ($20) 6♦ Q♠ 2♦

SB checks, Hero checks

TURN ($20) 6♦ Q♠ 2♦ 4♠

SB bets $12, Hero calls $12

RIVER ($44) 6♦ Q♠ 2♦ 4♠ J♥

SB bets $17, Hero raises to $78 (AI), SB folds

Hero shows K♠ A♥

Hero wins $75

Villain only folds to 3b 52%. On the River I just decided he was not very strong, either going for thin value or block betting with some 1-pair type hand and so just decided to shove. Probably a terrible play, but it was nice to get away with it
My river aggression is only 2.0 so I think I should get a decent amount of credit.

Most annoying hand of the day:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($62.20)
Hero ($223)
UTG ($68.80)
UTG+1 ($114)
CO ($194)
BTN ($85.75)

Dealt to Hero 3♥ 4♥

UTG calls $1, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero checks

FLOP ($2.50) Q♦ 9♥ 3♦

Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $4, Hero calls $2

TURN ($10.50) Q♦ 9♥ 3♦ 4♣

Hero bets $7, UTG raises to $14, Hero raises to $28, UTG raises to $63.80 (AI), Hero calls $35.80

RIVER ($138) Q♦ 9♥ 3♦ 4♣ 3♣

Hero shows 3♥ 4♥
(Pre 17%, Flop 13.6%, Turn 0.0%)

UTG shows 4♦ 4♠
(Pre 83%, Flop 86.4%, Turn 100.0%)

UTG wins $135

villain is 29/5... what are you going to do? Love it that he minRaises me on the flop with two overcards to his pocket pair.... The only reason I called on the flop was because he did this previously and so I suspected (correctly) that it was basically air.