Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

hey purplefizz - thanks

Managed to persuade Mrs Tim64 to travel round the world with me once - but I dont think she will go again and Miss Tim64 (our baby daughter) likes her English food too much.

Hope the wedding was good.

@Kevvu - this is the point, my friend; I want to get "foldhappy". When you are fold happy it means you are not "attached" to your hand - you are happy to fold if you can't see a way to play the hand well by calling. I have lost so many $ by calling down and hoping to see a bluff.

If we call here, and turn is a blank, and villain bets again, say $28-30, you are gonna say to yourself: "ok, I guess you have JJ or 33 or 55" and fold anyway - so why not save yourself $12 right away.

And you still dont know if villain had air or barreled a flush draw or whatever so you dont even get extra info.

As to "unknown reg", its easy: 100bb stack, normal tight aggressive stats. And I have no reads or showdown hands to help me decide.

Nice hands from today:

I can dodge bullets - and cowboys, baby:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($178)
Hero ($144)
UTG ($157)
UTG+1 ($314)
CO ($130)
BTN ($129)

Dealt to Hero Q♣ Q♠

UTG raises to $2, UTG+1 raises to $9, CO calls $9, fold, fold, Hero raises to $18, fold, UTG+1 raises to $35, CO calls $26, fold

FLOP ($90.50) T♣ 4♣ 6♠

UTG+1 bets $24, CO raises to $95.25 (AI), UTG+1 calls $71.25

TURN ($281) T♣ 4♣ 6♠ 2♣

RIVER ($281) T♣ 4♣ 6♠ 2♣ A♣

UTG+1 shows A♥ A♦
(Pre 82%, Flop 91.6%, Turn 95.5%)

CO shows K♠ K♦
(Pre 18%, Flop 8.4%, Turn 4.5%)

UTG+1 wins $278

Both villains unkown. Call looks best preflop since ranges should be tight. But spending $18 to save $140 is also good value...

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($100)
BB ($131)
UTG ($111)
UTG+1 ($100)
CO ($114)
BTN ($277)

Dealt to Hero K♣ K♠

fold, fold, CO raises to $3, fold, Hero calls $2.50, fold

FLOP ($7) 7♦ T♠ 4♠

Hero checks, CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

TURN ($15) 7♦ T♠ 4♠ A♣

Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero calls $10

RIVER ($35) 7♦ T♠ 4♠ A♣ Q♠

Hero checks, CO bets $29, Hero calls $29

Hero shows K♣ K♠
(Pre 81%, Flop 81.5%, Turn 90.9%)

CO shows J♣ 9♣
(Pre 19%, Flop 18.5%, Turn 9.1%)

Hero wins $90

So, buddy, um, what are you repping?
The Ace on the turn? or the flush on the river?

Oh, both. I see. Yeah, right.

If you had an Ace, you would check behind this river cos you would fear I hit my draw and if you did bet for thin value you would bet a lot smaller. And if you had a flush draw, you would take the free card I'm giving you on the turn pretty often.

Originally posted by Tim64
Miss Tim64 likes her English food too much.

What can u like about British food...? )Its jsut .... nah, whatever

What can u like about British food...?

Careful, Tagfish. Wait till you get here and try the fish n chips. You will never go back to your knedlik

Originally posted by Tim64

What can u like about British food...?

Careful, Tagfish. Wait till you get here and try the fish n chips. You will never go back to your knedlik

♦ n1

wow tim. that last hand might seem pretty std to a lot of people. but that shows how far u have come imo. wp sir ive got a good feeling about this month for u. all the best

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
wow tim. that last hand might seem pretty std to a lot of people. but that shows how far u have come imo. wp sir ive got a good feeling about this month for u. all the best

but was the call preflop standard ? I only like it with the right history and dynamics
The river plays itself mostly yes wp

but was the call preflop standard ?

Not sure. I 3b KK in that spot about 95%+ of the time, but villain is folding a shed load to 3b so I think EV of calling likely slightly better (but, ofc, it's close). As we discussed, Gerv, it's Rush so dynamics are less valuable.

In the first 10 days of this month I have played only half as many hands as I had planned to. There have been a couple of days when I have only managed 3-400 hands.

The reason for this is that things have been going quite well. And so I find myself, once again, in that state of not playing enough when things are going well and my confidence is high, while playing too much when things are going badly and I am chasing losses.

It's quite a common ailment especially in poker circles, but this time I wanted to do some thinking about what is going on, psychologically.

First let's make some assumptions. Let's suppose I know I make 3bb/100 @nl100 (no idea if this is correct!) and that one quarter of my total earnings come from rake back. Let's also suppose I need to make a minimum of $2000 every month. That means I know that on average I need to play 50,000 hands every month (giving $1500 in poker earnings and $500 in rake back).

Let's now imagine that after 25,000 hands in a particular month I have already made $2000. (I.e. I am running at more like 6bb/100). What I tend to do in this situation is start congratulating myself about how well I'm playing, telling myself that I've earned the right to take it easy and allowing myself effectively to take my foot off the pedal.

However, I think there is a deeper psychological cause to this tendency, rather than just pure laziness. And it's this: winning feels great, while losing sucks. If you've made $200 in a day there is a very strong psychological urge to quit while you're ahead.

Certainly for me, the motivation for this isn't so much that I don't want to lose the $200 I have made (although that's obviously true to some extent) but that I don't want to lose the good feeling that comes with playing profitable poker. I want to be able to carry on thinking "I am a winning poker player" for as long as possible. If I start a new session, lose the $200 and then a bit more (even if I played perfectly) I will end the day feeling demoralised. So an artificial drawbridge comes down -- the opposite of a stoploss, in effect -- and I make an arbitrary decision not to play any more, even though I know I should.

Here is the important bit: if I am a 3bb/100 player and in a particular month I play only 25,000 hands because I am running good, I am GUARANTEEING that in future months I WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MONEY. Three months down the line, for example, I will play 50,000 hands running at only 1bb/100 and then I will feel like shit when I finish the month with only $500 in winnings.

So instead of playing less when things are going well, I should actually be playing more, effectively storing up winnings for bad times to come. That is the professional attitude. That is the attitude I must cultivate.

The Ant and the Grasshopper

IN a field one summer’s day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart’s content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest.

“Why not come and chat with me,” said the Grasshopper, “instead of toiling and moiling in that way?”
“I am helping to lay up food for the winter,” said the Ant, “and recommend you to do the same.”
“Why bother about winter?” said the Grasshopper; “we have got plenty of food at present.”

But the Ant went on its way and continued its toil. When the winter came the Grasshopper had no food, and found itself dying of hunger, while it saw the ants distributing every day corn and grain from the stores they had collected in the summer. Then the Grasshopper knew:

“IT IS BEST TO PREPARE FOR THE DAYS OF NECESSITY.”

-Aesop's Fables

damn i had the same problem as u . when i had a big winning day i was loosing motivation to play more or to play the next day.While when i was loosing i wanted to play more .One suggestion i make to you to fix that is to have standard sessions , make a strict schedule of how many hands / hrs u will play for a day.Its quite hard to keep that especially when u re loosing cause u still want to play more to keep the looses in minimum,but having a strict schedule will make your sessions more mechanic and less money - oriented .

Originally posted by Tim64
In the first 10 day....

Copied to my blog, hope u dont mind

Originally posted by Schris7
damn i had the same problem as u . when i had a big winning day i was loosing motivation to play more or to play the next day.While when i was loosing i wanted to play more .One suggestion i make to you to fix that is to have standard sessions , make a strict schedule of how many hands / hrs u will play for a day.Its quite hard to keep that especially when u re loosing cause u still want to play more to keep the looses in minimum,but having a strict schedule will make your sessions more mechanic and less money - oriented .

I agree with Schris. That's a nice approach even though it makes it a bit too 'mechanic' still better. However it's best if someone who's a longtime professional CG grinder could share if that's the best way to approach the game - make a habit of how much exactly you should play per day/week/month.

Oh.. and keep up the mindfucking!

when ever i feel like that after a small session i always remember something i heard in a NL1k vid.

"dont stop after u win small... thats how you win 50k in a day... you keep playing"

Remember that your goal is an hourly rate. So, when you are not playing in soft games when you can achieve your hourly, you are effectively taking hours off and losing money.

Great great post. I will copy paste everything and note it down in a personal document. I have the exact same problem but im starting to deal with it this month

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($172)
Hero ($262)
UTG ($1,344)
UTG+1 ($689)
CO ($391)
BTN ($343)

Dealt to Hero T♠ T♦

UTG raises to $7, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $5

FLOP ($15) 5♦ 9♠ K♥

Hero checks, UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12

TURN ($39) 5♦ 9♠ K♥ K♠

Hero checks, UTG checks

RIVER ($39) 5♦ 9♠ K♥ K♠ 9♥

Hero bets $20, UTG raises to $50, Hero calls $30

Hero shows T♠ T♦
(Pre 81%, Flop 91.6%, Turn 95.5%)

UTG shows 4♠ 4♥
(Pre 19%, Flop 8.4%, Turn 4.5%)

Hero wins $136

Villain 34/16/5, 62 hands wts 33. I thought villain would most often show up with AQ or s/th, hoping to get me off the perceived split but, no, he has the K or the 9, apparently. Yes, of course you do.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($141)
BB ($114)
UTG ($111)
UTG+1 ($115)
CO ($40)
BTN ($80)

Dealt to Hero K♦ A♦

fold, UTG+1 calls $1, fold, fold, Hero raises to $4, BB raises to $12, fold, Hero calls $8

FLOP ($25) Q♥ K♠ 4♠

Hero checks, BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

TURN ($49) Q♥ K♠ 4♠ A♣

Hero checks, BB bets $20, Hero calls $20

RIVER ($89) Q♥ K♠ 4♠ A♣ 5♠

Hero checks, BB bets $70.30 (AI), Hero calls $70.30

Hero shows K♦ A♦
(Pre 63%, Flop 93.6%, Turn 100.0%)

BB shows 5♦ 6♥
(Pre 37%, Flop 6.4%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero wins $226

Villain 23/19, 500 hands. 3b 10%.

There is a lesson here: however tempting it is to shove the turn with your big hands because the board is getting ugly, when facing an agromonkey, DON'T. The more disgustingly ugly the river is for your hand, the more the aggromonkey will be unable to resist the final, desperation bluff.

[Tim64 feels god-like because he finished the day $100 over EV. Does this make up for running $500 below EV so far this month? No. Does it make up for running $2000 below EV over the last 200k hands? Umm, no, not really. Will I keep playing regardless, in the vain hope my luck changes? Hell, yeah.]

Feeling blue. No matter how well I play (or think I play) I can't catch a sustained run of reasonable luck.

Today is so standard. Played pretty well, made a few tilty moves but also owned some regs. EV says I should be $308 up. But I'm $275 down.

Already $1400 below EV for my poker month...
My poor family...

I feel like such an idiot for putting myself through this. Month after month. Thinking that eventually probability will set things straight....

Eventually of course, it will, but I will be old and broke by then.

K, self indulgent winge over...

-Sorrowful Tim64

Hey man,
I know exactly, what you feel. + i think i am old and broke also, when i can start winning again ♦. But i am not sure where from i get energy. After every session i am almost ready to finish that shit and after some h, i am like: lets try again, maybe it is better =). GL

Every professional poker player will meet very bad periods where he will be running under 30-40 BI EV and 100k hands breakeven stretches. Im very sorry to hear that you suffer so bad variance, and i hope that the luck will turn around shortly.

GL mr Tim

Monkey Tilt

Went on monkey tilt this morning and lost about $350 that I didnt need to lose. I keep confusing two things: 1. getting outflopped/cold decked and 2. getting outplayed.

1. Happens all the time and I need to accept it and deal with it and not pay ppl off.

2. Happens much more rarely than I think it does and mostly ppl just have the nuts and are not messing around.

Spazzing out becuase you think 2. is happening when actually its just 1. is very expensive...

A very strange thing happened during February: I ran under EV. I'd better repeat that just in case you were so surprised you didn't take it in. "I ran under EV".

Oh no, wait. That's not surprising at all. I always run under EV.

Money I should have made this month:

$183.27 + $562.66 (direct rake back) = $744.93
Total poker hours = 103.48
$/hr (theoretical) = $7.2
Total hands: 44,500.

Instead of this...

I lost $1239.75 at poker (i.e. $1400 below EV), bringing a monthly loss of
-$494.82 and an actual hourly wage of
-$4.78/hr

Oh dear. I am now $3500 below where I 'should' be since October of last year.

February graph:

Anyway, no use crying over spilt milk. Let us (once again) try to look at the positives. After a small sample of 64,000 hands, I'm running at an EV win rate of 2.5bb/100 at NL100 Rush SH. That's not too bad.

Unfortunately, the last few days I've really let the frustration get to me and that's resulted in unnecessary losses. Somehow I have to focus on playing my A game despite the cruel difference between what I could have expected and what I have actually received. I haven't looked at the cashier quite so much this month which I guess is also a good thing...

It's typical that right after posting about how I was finding it difficult to keep the momentum up when things were going well (right at the beginning of the month), I suffered an immediate downswing. But anyhow I am pleased that I managed to work on my motivation enough to get in a reasonable volume.

In 10 days time we are off to New York to see my wife's brother, which will be a much needed break. So March will be a short month in terms of poker. I will try not to hope for a month of profit, only a month in which I play well, don't get frustrated and don't do anything too stupid!

Yours, disappointedly:
Tim64

Speaking of looking at the positives, today I managed to get an aggressive reg on my limit to spazz nearly two buyins my way:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($100)
BB ($292)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($373)
Hero ($183)
BTN ($43.50)

Dealt to Hero 2♠ 2♦

UTG raises to $3, fold, Hero calls $3, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($7.50) 5♠ 8♦ 5♥

UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

TURN ($17.50) 5♠ 8♦ 5♥ 7♣

UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12

RIVER ($41.50) 5♠ 8♦ 5♥ 7♣ Q♠

UTG bets $31, Hero calls $31

UTG shows K♠ A♠
(Pre 50%, Flop 41.9%, Turn 27.3%)

Hero shows 2♠ 2♦
(Pre 50%, Flop 58.1%, Turn 72.7%)

Hero wins $100

If you're going to make a balsy call down with a pocket pair, make it the smallest one possible. That way you create maximum tilt effect for your hapless opponent... and then they go and do something like this a few hands later:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($217)
BB ($106)
UTG ($186)
UTG+1 ($134)
Hero ($146)
BTN ($65.25)

Dealt to Hero Q♦ T♦

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($7.50) T♣ T♠ 8♠

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4.50, UTG+1 calls $4.50

TURN ($16.50) T♣ T♠ 8♠ 3♦

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $9, UTG+1 calls $9

RIVER ($34.50) T♣ T♠ 8♠ 3♦ 3♣

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $35, UTG+1 raises to $118 (AI), Hero calls $83.45

UTG+1 shows A♥ K♠
(Pre 60%, Flop 4.2%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows Q♦ T♦
(Pre 40%, Flop 95.8%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero wins $268

I love it when you have a hand they are trying to represent.