Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

Thanks, <3, for saying what I would have said.

belthazorrrr, if you look carefully the green and red lines meet up at the far right hand side of the graph. So actually I'm at EV. But in the past I have run over 50 BI under EV over a similar - for example:

Liar Dice – Don't Panic: It's just a Dream

(See the entry entitled "Taking Bets")

Speaking of which - and most of you won't remember this - but I am now in position to reveal the winner of that bet which I made over a year ago. Here is my 2010 graph at the 36s Full Ring tournaments, for reference:

So, the biggest gap was a EV difference of 52.1 BI ($1875). The winner of the competition was the interestingly named, "Genetals", who guessed 53 BI - just 0.9 of a buyin off. Well done! I don't think he is active anymore but I will happily provide an hour's free sweating/coaching to him if he reappears!

Anyway, here's hoping I run better in SH...

Finally,
@DeMarcohsp,

Tim why did you switch from rush sh to sng's ? I am currently playing NL 25 sh rush and I remeber you were playing NL 50 sh maybe you share with what changed your mind

Basically, I was a SSS grinder to begin. Then SnGs for ages. I switched to BSS because I learnt that, 1. there is an upper limit to winrate at SnGs (due to lack of games and 'solvability' of SnG play and 2. because of low ROIs, variance can be disgusting. I played BSS for many months, before discovering that because there are so many decent, non-spewy, regs... my winrate was tiny and the variances was, you guessed it, DISGUSTING. See:

Liar Dice – Don't Panic: It's just a Dream

So I am back to playing SnGs because although variance is likely no different, for some reason I tilt less at SnGs and so I play slightly better and and enjoy them more.

-Tim64

Originally posted by Tim64

So I am back to playing SnGs because although variance is likely no different, for some reason I tilt less at SnGs and so I play slightly better and and enjoy them more.

-Tim64

You tilt less because when you loose one big hand you loose just a bi and you cant tilt because you know that you have to play your best game in order to finish first in other tables.Loosing a big hand its kinda of motivating to try more in other tables imo.But loosing a bi in cash,could easily lead you to loose more bi trying to outplay the guy that sucked you out.I believe that sit n gos are less tilting.The variance is higher ofc but if someone has tilting issues the sit n gos are the safety.Just my opinion

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
its probability. anything is possible. hes not running above ev. hes at ev.

its possible to run hundreds of BIs > EV in that sample. its also possible to run hundreds of BIs < EV. also 1k games is not a big sample. its very small

Yeah, if I split my career in half I get 2 1000+ games samples, one 50 BI obove EV, one 50 BI under EV. I don't think anything else than 5000 games is a good sample.

Originally posted by dydukas

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
its probability. anything is possible. hes not running above ev. hes at ev.

its possible to run hundreds of BIs > EV in that sample. its also possible to run hundreds of BIs < EV. also 1k games is not a big sample. its very small

Yeah, if I split my career in half I get 2 1000+ games samples, one 50 BI obove EV, one 50 BI under EV. I don't think anything else than 5000 games is a good sample.

wow..i didnt know i need such a big sample..

Originally posted by belthazorrrr
wow..i didnt know i need such a big sample..

Yep, but the red line after 1000 games at least should tell you if you're a winning player. I think it only should only differ like ±3% from your true ROI after 1k games.

Main Event Race Final tourney starting now. 1,200 Entrants. 3 Main Event seats.
Ship it, Tim64!

Good luck man, would come rail, but work in an hour

436/816

315/757, 50bb

370/665, only 24bb

290/568, 24bb

Gl Tim!

253/457, 23bb

182/209, 17bb

...busted out in 184th place reshoving QQ for 17bb into a known reg who called w AJo and hit 2 Aces on the flop and turn. Bit card dead in the early phase. Dealt AA once towards the end and just got the blinds. Two nice hands vs uber fish:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $80(BB) Replayer
SB ($7,648)
BB ($3,581)
UTG ($4,142)
UTG+1 ($8,981)
UTG+2 ($2,440)
MP1 ($3,633)
MP2 ($14,573)
CO ($5,805)
Hero ($2,678)

Dealt to Hero 6♣ 7♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $188, SB calls $148, fold

FLOP ($456) 2♥ 3♠ 9♥

SB checks, Hero checks

TURN ($456) 2♥ 3♠ 9♥ 5♦

SB checks, Hero bets $295, SB calls $295

RIVER ($1,046) 2♥ 3♠ 9♥ 5♦ 4♠

SB checks, Hero bets $800, SB calls $800

Hero shows 6♣ 7♣
(Pre 37%, Flop 24.7%, Turn 31.8%)

SB shows Q♣ J♦
(Pre 63%, Flop 75.3%, Turn 68.2%)

Hero wins $2,646

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
Hero ($3,046)
BB ($10,077)
UTG ($3,926)
UTG+1 ($8,665)
UTG+2 ($12,021)
MP1 ($1,480)
MP2 ($2,838)
CO ($14,743)
BTN ($4,600)

Dealt to Hero 6♣ 9♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $100, BB checks

FLOP ($400) 2♥ T♣ 3♥

Hero bets $230, BB calls $230

TURN ($860) 2♥ T♣ 3♥ 9♣

Hero checks, BB checks

RIVER ($860) 2♥ T♣ 3♥ 9♣ J♣

Hero bets $602, BB calls $602

Hero shows 6♣ 9♠
(Pre 64%, Flop 22.0%, Turn 88.6%)

BB shows 3♦ 5♥
(Pre 36%, Flop 78.0%, Turn 11.4%)

Hero wins $2,064

On the river we can put villain squarely on a 2x or 3x type of hand. Tx surely bets the turn. So thin value here looks good since villain expects us to bluff the scare card. ♠_cool:

Ran super bad today, but still managed a very good profit. Snapped off aggro reg's sb 10bb reshove vs my BU steal (my 22 dominating his A2s), but he somehow managed to chop with a rivered straight). Got my own back first hand of the later HU match: I completed AK first hand and sure enough he shoved A8o (ofc, I would have done the same ) and I won.

Running @ 8.6% overall so far since returning to SnGs (and only $30 below EV, which is totally f*****g awesome) after 1150 games.

Deliriously Happy

Have to record this because I am so deliriously happy at the moment. Sun is shining, I have mowed the lawns (front and back), and danced to some old club classic I found on viewer88's blog which made me feel like I was 20 again. Poker is going like a dream at the moment with monstrous winnings over the last couple of days that cannot possibly continue, but who the hell cares?

Black Friday? Blue Monday? Super Tuesday? Just give me a bunch more days like this one and I will be content.

-Tim64

edit; just soul read another aggro reg:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $120(BB) Replayer
Hero ($2,238)
BB ($1,905)
UTG ($2,092)
CO ($1,360)
BTN ($1,405)

Dealt to Hero 8♣ T♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $60, BB checks

FLOP ($240) 2♣ J♣ J♠

Hero bets $120, BB raises to $240, Hero raises to $2,118 (AI), BB folds

Hero shows 8♣ T♣

Hero wins $720

Im shoving here all day long and twice on Bank Holiday Mondays, with or without the flushdraw. Would you ever raise a Jx on that board? No. Right, so just save your chips and make way - I'm comin' through.

regs are so bad grats tim. lol blue monday

Originally posted by Tim64
Would you ever raise a Jx on that board?

Against you I would.

Well, it's the end of the long Bank Holiday weekend here in the UK and I managed to solidify the good start from Good Friday. The jump to the $36s has basically gone better than I could ever have expected.

The first half of the month I was grinding $10 and $20 SnGs (normal, turbo and super turbo). Having got together the bankroll for the next level up, I nevertheless continued to include $10 games in my sets.

Moving up is always a nervous -- and, of course, exciting -- prospect. One somehow imagines that the people on the next level up will be so much better than you (as if it's no longer poker, but some other game, where you don't quite know the rules). So it was a tentative start, i.e. not wanting to jump in completely. Continuing to play the $10s was rather like keeping the training wheels on your bicycle even after you've learnt to ride.

Anyway, after a few $36s, it was clear that it was the same game after all, with people making all the same crazy moves and retarded calls. After a decent number of wins under my belt I decided it no longer makes sense to play the $10 games and so I've removed these from the lobby.

I really want to demonstrate the ability (after rakeback) to make a solid $2 per game. 50 games a day = $100 and the prospect of making a solid $2k+ per month. Problem is I've done all this kind of maths before and somehow, while it always looks good on paper, actually doing it month after month has completely eluded me since I turned pro. I'm really hoping that with sit and go's, that will change. For good.

Here is the graph for the long weekend (Fri - Mon):

Thanks for reading!

Nice success right there, we all have our own brick walls, they are there to stop those who doesn't want it bad enough and you passed through one of yours for sure, congratulations with your newly found success and you figuring out an "easier" way to make a living off poker