Poker Leak:
I miss value when I need it most and I do not plan ahead enough.
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Originally posted by Demonic226
You redline indeed looks good, but yeah in your head that probably starts to matter less and less.If it makes you feel any better, I run 250BI under EV over a 20k sample.
graph please? Which games/limits?
So, yeah, everyday gets worse. The sheer brutality of endlessly getting in with the best hand but never having it hold up and never, ever, sucking out with the worst of it is, how can I put this, EXHAUSTING. Now 83 BI below (over $2000).
Latest giraffe:
Anyway, last day for competition entries - good luck! In exchange for my advice I will be expecting the lucky recipient to teach me how to win some of my 70:30s!
Originally posted by Tim64
Originally posted by Demonic226
You redline indeed looks good, but yeah in your head that probably starts to matter less and less.If it makes you feel any better, I run 250BI under EV over a 20k sample.
graph please? Which games/limits?
So, yeah, everyday gets worse. The sheer brutality of endlessly getting in with the best hand but never having it hold up and never, ever, sucking out with the worst of it is, how can I put this, EXHAUSTING. Now 83 BI below (over $2000).
Latest giraffe:
Anyway, last day for competition entries - good luck! In exchange for my advice I will be expecting the lucky recipient to teach me how to win some of my 70:30s!
It's a combination of $12s, $24s, $36s and $60s, all 9man turbo on FTP.
It equals to about $6500 diff
Thanks for this, Demonic. Pretty gross and very sobering -- poor you. Looks like I should stfu. It's equivalent to around 3.5% ROI overall?
Well done for somehow persevering through that.
edit: just hit 90 BI below EV. FML. If it gets to 100, I'm donating $20 a friend's charity.
Originally posted by Tim64
Thanks for this, Demonic. Pretty gross and very sobering -- poor you. Looks like I should stfu. It's equivalent to around 3.5% ROI overall?Well done for somehow persevering through that.
1.6% green and 3.4% EV
Originally posted by BOBOsvk
i wan't to complain too, last 5weeksSpoiler
Which begs the obvious question, who the heck is running well?
Originally posted by Tim64
Originally posted by BOBOsvk
i wan't to complain too, last 5weeksSpoiler
Which begs the obvious question, who the heck is running well?
Me, but I dont play SnGs.....
schris sng blog
Originally posted by Schris7
@bobosvk limits ? and are these turbo sngs ?@tim hows your ev roi doing ?
5.8%
Hey Tim!
You're really doing a great job keeping up the good work despite your run atm. I really admire you for that, and I can relate to how you're feeling.
I had a few questions about Palladium membership on party. What difference does it really do? I mean do you gain anything except for the bonuses you can purchase in the store? 
Seems pretty useless otherwise. 
Sorry for bothering you with these questions but the support is as vauge as always 
Originally posted by Targetme
wait people play sng's at party?
The degen ones.... ♦
Originally posted by vonki
Hey Tim!You're really doing a great job keeping up the good work despite your run atm. I really admire you for that, and I can relate to how you're feeling.
I had a few questions about Palladium membership on party. What difference does it really do? I mean do you gain anything except for the bonuses you can purchase in the store?
Sorry for bothering you with these questions but the support is as vauge as alwaysThanks. Can't afford to tilt or slow down. Gotta feed the family...
As to Palladium, main point is that you are not eligible to buy bonuses in the store that are the equivalent of a decent percentage of rake back unless you are Palladium. For example, say you grind out 20,000 points over two-year period 2-tabling NL10. Well, in theory you have enough points to buy $3k bonus but in practice this is blocked. You can only buy that bonus if you are Palladium. There are a few extra bonuses which are only available for Palladium players, like for example at the moment there is an Oktoberfest promo for Palladium only (i.e. extra rake back effectively).
But basically, unlike FT where you got 27% r/b regardless of volume, you need to be Palladium to unlock 30% rake back equivalent.
Hope it makes sense.
edit:
I was having a conversation with JBP earlier today about whether variance and ROI are linked. He thought not, and I guess that should be enough for me given his occupation...I can see why risk of ruin is related to ROI, since the bigger your ROI the smaller the chance of variance causing you to bust your roll (for given levels of buy-in versus bankroll).
However, I always had a feeling that downswings were a function of, among other things, edge (i.e. ROI). I.e. the bigger your edge, the quicker you could expect to come out of a downswing.
Wondered if anyone had any firm answers to question in bold above?
Hi, I was randomly passing by and read your last post:
Originally posted by Tim64
I was having a conversation with JBP earlier today about whether variance and ROI are linked. He thought not, and I guess that should be enough for me given his occupation...
That's right, they shouldn't be. I guess you have a misunderstanding somewhere around...
Originally posted by Tim64
I can see why risk of ruin is related to ROI, since the bigger your ROI the smaller the chance of variance causing you to bust your roll (for given levels of buy-in versus bankroll).
this is mostly true
Originally posted by Tim64
However, I always had a feeling that downswings were a function of, among other things, edge (i.e. ROI). I.e. the bigger your edge, the quicker you could expect to come out of a downswing.
but this is not. "Downswings" are a product of variance... and variance has no memory.
Anyway what happens is that it's your winning rate that suffers a blow - you can see it in your own graph, despite the running bad you're still winning (even if just marginally).
If it was a worse player (as in "lower winrate") going through the same "bad run", he'd most likely be losing already.
I'm using "mostly true" and "most likely" because I believe that variance is linked with playing style.
Like, LAG has obviously higher variance than TAG... so, even if a LAG has a slightly higher longterm winrate than a TAG, his risk of ruin may actually be higher.
Disclaimer: I'm currently a NL2 regular... no, I mean "sporadic player" (not saying "recreational player" because that's how people usually call pure fish) so take it for what's worth.
Thank you, everyone, for entering. It's certainly kept the run-bad interesting! Here are my favourites:
not folding because its my turn to win now.
- gordy1957
Leveling myself against bad regs in bvb action
- stevegold87
Expecting to run above EV while consistently shoving too loose into too wide calling range
- gavinonymous
not folding when i'm beat
- purplefizz
Not taking optimal lines in HU play eg: shoving K9o for 20bb
- Leito99
I miss value when I need it most and I do not plan ahead enough.
- clandestineAl
Is it was actually pretty hard to pick a winner but I don't have all day as I need to get back to running below EV at the tables. So... the winner of the one hour's free sweating/coaching is: ...
Too tight when loosing, too spewy when winning.
- dydukas
I will be contacting dydukas by PM to arrange a convenient time with him to receive his prize. In the event I am unable to do so, Leito99 is the runner-up.
Incidentally, thanks, Tomaloc, for your response regarding variance if anyone else can confirm or deny this I'd be most grateful.
Originally posted by Tim64
I was having a conversation with JBP earlier today about whether variance and ROI are linked. He thought not, and I guess that should be enough for me given his occupation...
Don't forget that I'm a stats and probability fish. If poker was all about solving partial differential equations, it would be a different story. Having said that, I thought what Tomaloc wrote was very sensible.
Well they aren't linked per se but you have a much bigger probability of going broke if you have a small ROI and almost an inexsistent one with a huge ROI, so in a way they are interlinked.