[Closed] Nl2 JJ

Hi dany2391

If villains stats are correct and you only have 5 hands on him, the WTS value dosnt tell you anything really so he is basicly "unknown" atm.

As played
Flop: Im definatly a fan of raising on the flop. His donk bet is small and we have top set, we definatly need to inflate the pot. He can pay us off here with a number of hands like 66, TT, AJ, JT, KQ, Q9 for the OESD.

Turn: Again Im a fan of the raise, the 8h only really improves Q9 and he can still pay off with weaker hands. If we put this into Equilab we get the following

Board: J♥T♣6♠ 8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    65.45%  65.45%   0.00% { JdJs }
MP3    34.55%  34.55%   0.00% { TT, 66, AJs, KQs, Q9s, JTs, AJo, KQo, Q9o, JTo }

And thats if hes tight, our equity is even better if hes loose.

River: The Ad does decrease our equity somewhat on the river against the given range

Board: J♥T♣6♠ 8♥ A♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    27.28%  27.28%   0.00% { JdJs }
MP3    72.72%  72.72%   0.00% { TT, 66, AJs, KQs, Q9s, JTs, AJo, KQo, Q9o, JTo }

He's giving you 8:1 pott odds meaning you would have to be good 12.5% of the time, I think I prefere just to call and see a cheap showdown.

GL

Disclaimer: this might be absolute rubbish as its just my homework ♦

Hello dany2391,

Well if you even want to raise then just it bigger. With your raise it doesn't matter much, he still gets the implied odds for a Call. I'd raise ~$0,40 and most likely even bigger on turn.

But as played river well, this is somewhat ugly spot. While even couple of draws completed and sometimes they even like to trap this way. I might go for the skip-value line and just Call. But of course it ain't like way off hand. Usually also if they have a strong hand they could easily just ship themselves.

Best regards.