np mate,
the problem is when you run like cancer it's really hard to move up 
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Originally posted by akrammon
But don't worry, you will start running good. It's just the most likely scenario once you are a winning player
Winning player = good red line. Doesn't make running good any more likely.
i hate that fkn red line... read through your blog tim, read through mine. you will see how obsessed we get with it. think about how much time we have wasted on it, think about how unhappy that stupid fucking line has made us. you know that each play you make is the best possible play, if it isnt you work on it. thats all that matters. Im glad im using chip EV lately, and havent looked at a red-line in about 6 months. I think im much happier for it. even though im currently in the longest BE stretch of my career.
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
i hate that fkn red line... read through your blog tim, read through mine. you will see how obsessed we get with it. think about how much time we have wasted on it, think about how unhappy that stupid fucking line has made us. you know that each play you make is the best possible play, if it isnt you work on it. thats all that matters. Im glad im using chip EV lately, and havent looked at a red-line in about 6 months. I think im much happier for it. even though im currently in the longest BE stretch of my career.
Big man speakum great truth, say White Singing Dog. Red Running Line tellum greeeaaat lie!
But Red Line be greeeaat God in Sky. Pray to him we must. Fail to sacrifice Stampeding Bull to his voracious appetite and ye shall be rewarded by dominated Aces and sent tumbling to the Valley of Lost Flips.
...
edit: finally, a fkn winning day. If I had looked at at my red line (which of course I didn't 
) I would have seen that I actually ran above ev today. Since today is by far the best day I've had in absolutely ages, I'm posting a graph of it (look - no EV line!).
Have been doing some more thinking about variance, red lines and results-orientated thinking. I also just spend a few minutes reacquainting myself with Faarcyde's 40K game sample graph from his "Embracing Variance" lesson (located elsewhere on the net).
I hope he won't mind me commenting on that graph here. Aside from one point where he appears to be around 200bi above EV and a few points where he is around 100 bi below EV, after 40k games he is within 90 buyins of his EV. Furthermore, using the same calculation I did with Bobo's graph, I estimate his real roi after 40k gs at being within 0.25% of his EV roi. And he received over 95% of the earnings he should have received according to his red line.
That is hugely significant, in my opinion. As he says himself, he knows of almost no cases where - at turbo or regular sngs (i.e. excluding hype/super turbos) - a player is not at or very near their EV winrate after sufficiently big samples.
The rational conclusion to draw from all this, in my humble opinion, is not that the red line is a bad thing, unhelpful, or in some way damaging. It's that the disparity between it and our actual short-term results (i.e. the green line) is something that we have to learn to ignore. And if I can't learn to stop doing that, then I need to stop looking at the graphs, period.
So here's what I'm going to try to do: I'm not going to stop looking at my red line. I'm going to stop looking at the difference between it and my green line. And I'm not even going to consider complaining about running badly again until I have 10,000 games total on this site (i.e. post Black Friday). So, with a bit of luck you won't hear any more moaning from me for another 6800 games.
And the next time it seems like I am breaking this commitment and complaining about runbad: please, please, please direct me to this post and remind me what I said.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $400(BB) Replayer
SB ($5,010)
Hero ($4,265)
BTN ($10,725)
Dealt to Hero 3♦ 8♠
fold, SB calls $200, Hero checks
FLOP ($800) Q♣ 2♠ J♣
SB checks, Hero checks
TURN ($800) Q♣ 2♠ J♣ 8♥
SB checks, Hero checks
RIVER ($800) Q♣ 2♠ J♣ 8♥ A♥
SB checks, Hero checks
SB shows A♠ A♦
(Pre 88%, Flop 96.9%, Turn 88.6%)
Hero shows 3♦ 8♠
(Pre 12%, Flop 3.1%, Turn 11.4%)
SB wins $800
Hello there! I like your approach and mindset alot. I know you can overcome your struggle. Just in case, if you haven't seen the Eightfold Path series at DC yet, I highly recommend it. All the best
Originally posted by Tim64
Have been doing some more thinking about variance, red lines and results-orientated thinking. I also just spend a few minutes reacquainting myself with Faarcyde's 40K game sample graph from his "Embracing Variance" lesson (located elsewhere on the net).I hope he won't mind me commenting on that graph here. Aside from one point where he appears to be around 200bi above EV and a few points where he is around 100 bi below EV, after 40k games he is within 90 buyins of his EV. Furthermore, using the same calculation I did with Bobo's graph, I estimate his real roi after 40k gs at being within 0.25% of his EV roi. And he received over 95% of the earnings he should have received according to his red line.
That is hugely significant, in my opinion. As he says himself, he knows of almost no cases where - at turbo or regular sngs (i.e. excluding hype/super turbos) - a player is not at or very near their EV winrate after sufficiently big samples.
The rational conclusion to draw from all this, in my humble opinion, is not that the red line is a bad thing, unhelpful, or in some way damaging. It's that the disparity between it and our actual short-term results (i.e. the green line) is something that we have to learn to ignore. And if I can't learn to stop doing that, then I need to stop looking at the graphs, period.
So here's what I'm going to try to do: I'm not going to stop looking at my red line. I'm going to stop looking at the difference between it and my green line. And I'm not even going to consider complaining about running badly again until I have 10,000 games total on this site (i.e. post Black Friday). So, with a bit of luck you won't hear any more moaning from me for another 6800 games.
Good luck with that, Tim! Really really gl! I might set some not-looking-at-graph goals for november, dunno yet. Thing is that EV line cools me down when I'm runing bad. Usually. Just a psychological thing ofc.
And the next time it seems like I am breaking this commitment and complaining about runbad: please, please, please direct me to this post and remind me what I said.
Wilco, sir!
Support at HEM were are kind enough to point me in the direction of how to remove the green line from my graphs. It works, as you can see from October's graph. If I really want to know how I'm actually doing, I just switch on the rakeback line which gives me a rough idea.
I will tell you how I did it but I'm not taking any responsibility if you mess up your HEM.
-Find the HoldemManager/Config/HoldemManager.config file.
-Change the colour of "GraphWinnings>True,DarkGreen,2,Solid" to:
"GraphWinnings>True,Grey,2,Solid".
(I had to change the permissions on the security tab of this file to enable me to edit and save it).
By making the line grey, It's not noticeable against the grey graph background. If you still want to see the line but have it less obvious, change the colour to "White" or change the thickness of the line from "2" to "1".
added you on skype.already reached 30bis downsing from ev and 1k totally minus.Am i sexy or what?
also when editting hem conf, if u don't want to just disguise the line as grey, pretty sure you can just edit "True" to "False"? atleast u can on cg games
Originally posted by fusionpk
also when editting hem conf, if u don't want to just disguise the line as grey, pretty sure you can just edit "True" to "False"? atleast u can on cg gamesYou can in SnGs too. Good thinking (although the net effect is the same of course).
What an excellent idea to hide the greenline! Only problem at Ongame is that you get to see your BR everytime you buy-in to a new tourney, I trained myself to look away but sometimes I just can't resist 
Are you going to turn it on at the end of the month again or just for a week or so?
Originally posted by Demonic226
What an excellent idea to hide the greenline! Only problem at Ongame is that you get to see your BR everytime you buy-in to a new tourney, I trained myself to look away but sometimes I just can't resist
Are you going to turn it on at the end of the month again or just for a week or so?
Yeah, BR on show most of the time but I dont find it too tilting. Im cashing out whenever it goes above a certain amount (to avoid FT scenario) and redpositing if below another amount, so its always within a certain 'band'.
Green line is not returning anytime soon. Don't need it since I can still see $ won on left hand side of HEM results. As I say, its not the results that I find tilting, but the difference between them and expectation as constantly reinforced by green/red line combo. Since Red line is much more "stable" I find it both comforting and realistic in terms of a long term strategy.
Thats really innovative ♦ Or at least it's the first time I see somebody doing it. I didn't even know the option existed. LoL. I think I'm trying it myself now that I am in a somewhat big downswing.It's def. more constructive than watching the green line,although I never felt tilting because of it.Worth trying though.