Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #15 03.01.12

68, 6T should not be in his range. Sets are, also I think there are flushdrfaws with overcards like QJs, KJs, JTs. This is reraise of fold I think. We cannot give him cards to hit for his draws. But his c/r is not high, so could be 88, TT easily. TT he could 3bet also preflop. 66 call for set is too weak here. So then not many sets - 88 most likely.

With TT he could 3bet if you call lot of 3bets. If you fold or 4bet, then its less likely, unless if you 4bet and he decides to stack off with TT, but that is loose, so not so likely.

Also if he has set and the board is drawy, he should expect you to skip the cbet, unless hero cbets to often. So with set he should donkbet. So againg less likely that he has set.

So I guess we need to reraise and allin. Allin is not fun when we don't know what weaker hands can call, but can we fold after we 3bet on flop? Not sure about this.

I think it is a good bord to c/r as bluff to represente set, but we have T8, and he only have 5 combos of set.
So call flop to keep him with all range, and call any turn, imo

PF: The raise on BU with T8s is absolutly fine.
Even if SB is a smallstack he is not very loose and BB does play back but not all to often (folds to 80%?) and he can still fold to a cbet oop.

F: Even if we didn't saw BB c/r much on the flop i would 3B his c/r.
If we just call we would be in an ugly spot on many cards (any club, 7,J,Q)
The only thing thats beating us already is a set (88,TT unlikely), or 79 which shouldn't be played by a tag all to often oop.
It is more likely he has TP or a draw so 3B/c

PREFLOP: Let say that the the steal here is standard against a person who obviously doesn t like to play from the BB like from other positons which is understandable.

FLOP:Well it kinda close since we don t know our image. Without are image we have to consider that ther range he called with is prety much this: 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ but I would add probably also the low pocket pairs. We have to exclude to call his reraise(either we are extremly good postflop) since there are to many cards that we dont wanna see as well as 3bet/fold. So if we exclude from the upper of his calling range most of the cards we find ourself against this range probably

Board: 6♦8♣T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     53.91%  53.23%   0.68% { Th8h }
BB     46.09%  45.42%   0.68% { KK+, TT, 88, 66, QcJc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Jc9c }

I added KK or AA for the reason we dont know if he slowplayed them pre.
But if we exclude them then we have this:

Board: 6♦8♣T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     29.85%  29.32%   0.54% { Th8h }
BB     70.15%  69.61%   0.54% { TT, 88, 66, QcJc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Jc9c }

So in the first scenario we kinda play a high variance play and in the second we are likely behind so why line would even be fold even it is quite nitty since there are almost no weaker hands that can call us.

In my opinion we have to 3bet here and call a shove. We of chorse will be beat by sets, but 88 and TT are less likely since we hold one of those.

He is a reg and this kind of board is good for a reraise bluff or semibluff. He has suited connectors or suited aces in his range so he might as well be on a draw and decided to semibluff.

Pre: Looks pretty standard to open this hand. SB is probably not the best player but by no means a loose cannon.
Flop: First we have to define his Flatcalling-Range preflop. I would discount at least JJ+ and AQs+ AK since he 3bets quite a bit. He may have JJ/QQ from time to time but not necessarily. I personally would be sceptic about hands like Q9s or J9s to be included in his calling-Range. Basically all Sets are in his range which are 5 Combos in total. If he raises his best draws as well (FD+GS or FD+Pair). Those are basically QcJc and possibly Ac6c (although not certain here).
Next are some NutFDs or FDs+OCs so maybe Ac9c, KcJc KcQc. Finally the worse made hands like 86s and random overpair like JJ.
As has already been mentioned this means a very close +EV spot at best, but since exactly those hands we get our Equity from are less certain to be included in his Pre-Range.
This should all in all point to a fold here.
For our overall game this means:
1. We make money vs this guy by stealing a very wide Range from BU as he folds quite a bit pre.
2. We are not going to make much money vs his flopraising-Range. In caser of doubt we should make a fold when facing action.
3. His c/c-Range is capped basically at TPTK at least on semidrawy or wet boards. That means we should put pressure on him on those boardtextures by multibarreling a lot of Scarecards.
This includes the 3rd Xc, OCs and possibly even a 7 or 9. Since he has Pair+Draw quite often we should plan on 3barreling most hands we bet on T. Basically those handtypes often call on their outs but fold on the R.
This spot is also where the money lies for us.

Hello,

Preflop: I would say pretty standard steal from the BTN with our hand, especially having rather tighter opponents on the blinds and the hands playability postflop.
Postflop: Although one thing I would mention here is that I'd still CB a bit bigger ~$1,20. Sometimes the smaller CB could induce even Check/Raises or any kind of protection raises even with made hands. But afterwards as we analyze his stats:

• Him having rather tighter stats and especially the calling range vs steals, we tend to think rather PPs and some broadways are in his range.
• Re-Steal range most likely tells us that he rather has a range of JJ+ or something similar which would most likely 3bet himself. Of course he will have sometimes there as well JJ/QQ which can be flatting like this but it ain't going to happen so often.
• Another thing we see here is the Check/Raise which is normally really small for that amount of hands. It's mainly for value and as we count the value hands here and those would be sets/FD+overcards/FD+GS and etc type of hands our equity ain't gonna be very good:

Board: 6♦8♣T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    59.64%  59.01%   0.63% { TT, 88, 66, ATs, KcQc, QcJc, Jc9c, Ac6c }
UTG+1  40.36%  39.73%   0.63% { Th8h }

So it's rather a Bet/Fold for me to avoid any marginal situations on the turn since there ain't gonna be many cards for us anyways which we want to see. It's very small profit for us anyways in long run if it's a profit at all.

Best Regards.