[Closed] Aj

well, if i am correct here (I am not sure about it) we have to make the following procedure:

figure out the range for 8.3 VPIP, remove hands from the range that he would re-raise you with (2.8 PFR) and we get his calling range, which is

44-TT, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo-AJo

against this range your equity is 35%, so

odds:
35:65 = 1:1.87
pot odds: 1:2.28
+ fold equity if he hold pockets from his range, since the board looks extremly scarry for him in this case... and if he is that tight, I don`t think he is calling your push with pockets...

so I don`t see how we can check behind here...

turn is fold, since your odds here are 2.33

For sure they call my push with any pair. You can count on that one.
I got like ZERO fold equity on Full Tilt.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $24.65
UTG+1: $34.90
MP1: $11.35
MP2: $24.15
MP3: $9.50
CO: $32.65
Button: $16.30
SB: $23
Utahmar: $5

Pre-flop: (9 players) Utahmar is BB with A♥ J♥
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25 (pot was $0.35), 6 folds, 6 folds, Utahmar raises to $1.25, UTG+1 calls $1 (pot was $1.35).

Flop: 9♥ 2♦ T♥ ($2.6, 2 players)
Utahmar is all-in $3.75, UTG+1 calls $3.75 (pot was $6.35).

Turn: 9♦ ($10.1, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $10.1)

River: Q♠ ($10.1, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $10.1)

Results:
Final pot: $10.1
Utahmar showed Ah Jh
UTG+1 showed 4d 4c

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $6.30
UTG+1: $25.15
MP1: $59.70
MP2: $12.15
MP3: $0.90
CO: $25.35
Utahmar: $4.65
SB: $9
BB: $53.45

Pre-flop: (9 players) Utahmar is Button with A♠ K♠

Uncalled bets: $0.25 returned to .

Flop: J♦ 5♣ T♣ ($0.1, 9 players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25 (pot was $0.1), 2 folds, Utahmar bets $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $1 (pot was $1.6), MP2 folds.

Turn: 8♠ ($2.6, 2 players)
BB checks, Utahmar bets $2, BB raises to $4, Utahmar calls all-in $1.4.
Uncalled bets: $0.6 returned to BB.

River: A♣ ($9.4, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $9.4)

Results:
Final pot: $9.4
BB showed 2d 2c
Utahmar showed As Ks

This site is i think on the extreme aggro. Im very much thinking on playing NL10 full stack, they full stack allin on TPTK with a blink at NL25 or NL50. I guess NL10 not much difference.

They would pay my sets, 2 pairs, effectively any better hand than a pair.

In HU they bet every shit they got, and call a reraise with air :

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $9.70
UTG+1: $27.85
MP1: $10.25
MP2: $32.35
MP3: $25.90
Utahmar: $4.65
Button: $30.90
SB: $67.15
BB: $28.40

Pre-flop: (9 players) Utahmar is CO with J♥ J♦
UTG calls $0.25 (pot was $0.35), UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.25 (pot was $0.6), 2 folds, Utahmar raises to $1.5, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.25 (pot was $2.35), MP1 folds.

Flop: Q♥ 5♣ 6♣ ($3.6, 2 players)
UTG bets $2, Utahmar raises all-in $3.15, UTG calls $1.15 (pot was $8.75).

Turn: K♦ ($9.9, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $9.9)

River: K♥ ($9.9, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $9.9)

Results:
Final pot: $9.9
Utahmar showed Jh Jd
UTG showed As 4s

well, according to my calculations (if they are right) you don`t need additional fold equity to justify your push...

Yes equity wise and hand range wise probably you are right. Still probably my bad way of thinking, i try to change - really - tho tells me, that on this board, if i got reraised cant fold, that's right, so im push allin on flop, and if i got called, that is likely, probably im drawing to my A ( if not AQ he has ), and a gutshot. So i didnt push on max 7 outs for 1:2.

well, equity has a corellation with outs... 1 out is 4.smthing% of equity (read somewhere in russian forum). So when you are playing against a range of hands, you can`t really calculate outs against one assumed hand... I mean, when I play myself, i don`t have built-in pokerstove in my head... I just know that when my stack is smaller than pot, I will be making +EV push almost no matter what... that`s why it is a rule in a Basic strategy...

I understand that even im behind, i got my right the 30-35% of the pot ♦.

But Sklansky is not responding to my phone calls ♦

I see push is okay, even if im beat. Still getting harder to do these on the edge pushes, when im digging deeper myself into the losing streak.

Or maybe this is why im losing. Still dont know. Anyway its not common i check behind. I do it when its kind of almost obvious im probably behind.

And might be im losing, because im not drawing on these hands.

well, you should realize that by not participating in +ev situations you cut a piece from your longterm profit...

Still its close again.

Pot is 1:2.28

22-TT, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QJs, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QJo This is a 10.11% range tho, but i think we can sort out more likely QJo, KJo, or KJo, KJs because if he plays 44, why not 22, 33 ?

On this range i get only 1:2.125

Its marginal, but still + EV, although we might suppose, he maybe folds his low pockets agains a short stack raise, as he might think he cant play it for set value profitable ( maybe im giving too much credit here ). If he folds 22 - 66 hands, than my equity goes down to 28.9% only to 1 : 1.37 and thats -EV now.

I think this is really a very thin line, i can gain +1-2% or lose -1-2%.

Back to Sklansky for a bit, on the hand here, where i had A K :spade:, by Sklansky it's -Sklansky bucks contibet. I overbetted my equity with the contibet. Of course you can only narrow to one possible hand very few times.

For that hand i earned -0.76$ Sklansky ( I betted around my equity preflop ~50 50 ), and overbet on flop, that's - .

He's crediting you only with your equity.

On the first sample hand he might gave me some + ( if we would know exactly my opponent holding ), if i had the better hand preflop.