[Closed] Over pair drawy board

Flat the turn & let him bluff the river:f_p: his value range is pretty narrow now the 2 has rolled off. By flatting it also balances the weaker portions of your range when calling on the turn in this spot.

Would be interested to know what cards you guys would fold on the river?

Originally posted by salflip
Would be interested to know what cards you guys would fold on the river?

Yeah that's the question if we flat because if we have to fold too much we'd better off shoving the turn.
Which river would you fold salflip?

No the question is whether HE will bluff the river often enough to make the EV(Call Turn) >> EV(Raise Turn)

ES is 83.5bb on Turn so we can't do some funky click it back stuff

IMO your line is ok, if he's not tilted he'll probably give up on non-spade river and won't continue bluffing w his FD

Originally posted by Gerv
No the question is whether HE will bluff the river often enough to make the EV(Call Turn) >> EV(Raise Turn)

Yeah agree but to calculate our EV(call Turn) we need to know when we give up on river.
Do we give up on spades? 8,J?

Only on spades hence 18% of the time

Originally posted by Gerv
Only on spades hence 18% of the time

Will calculate the EV in the morning.
Ev of a shove assuming that he folds everything but sets/quads vs EV of a call assuming that we fold to a spade river

Originally posted by Dublimax

Originally posted by Gerv
Only on spades hence 18% of the time

Will calculate the EV in the morning.
Ev of a shove assuming that he folds everything but sets/quads vs EV of a call assuming that we fold to a spade river

Without doing the math: EV(call turn) > EV(shove turn) I'd assume.
This is under the assumption that we fold spade turns and that he's bluffing some of the busted draws.

It's ofc questionable wether an unknown will bluff the river or not, but most regs can calculate equity and it's a fold for him as he has to bring 65 for 200, or 32.5% equity - the FD gives him ~20%, wif he has the NFD and assumes he has an overcard it's ~26%.

EDIT: I was doing all this when you answered Phil. So here are the maths:

On the flop his C/R range is the following:
22,99,TT,QJs,KsJs+,AsJs+,T9s

Not sure about 22 but anyways it is only 1 combos.

Board: Ts9s2d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.09% 35.09% 0.00% { AdAh }
MP3 64.91% 64.91% 0.00% { TT-99, 2s2c, QJs, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, As9s }

Let's assume he is barreling turn with 100% of this range but T9s (16 combos)

Board: Ts9s2d2h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.45% 46.45% 0.00% { AdAh }
MP3 53.55% 53.55% 0.00% { TT-99, 2s2c, QJs, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, As9s }

EV shove:
He will fold everything but sets (T9s got counterfeited) (7 combos = 44%) vs which I have 4% equity.

Ev shove= 0.56**59.5+0.44*[0.04*202-83.5]
Ev Shove=0.12

That's a wow to me, the shove is BE. But that's because villain has such a narrow range(i.e not many FDs) since it is BB vs UTG

EV call and fold to spade:

Let's say that he keeps barreling on non spade x% and we fold to a spade (18% of the time).
sets:44%
FDs:31%
QJs:25%
vs QJs we have about 86% equity (he has 6 outs) and he will bet 100% river

EV call= -24*0.18+0.82*[0.44*(-59)-0.25*0.14*202+X*[0.311*202+0.25(0.86*202)]]
EV call= -4.32+0.82*[-33.03+X*106.25]
EV call= 0 -> X=26%

So if villain bluffs more than 26% with his draws (FDs+SDs) our call on turn is +EV

Conclusion:
This spot is very close because villain has very little Fds in his range.
If we think that villain bluffs more than 26% when he misses his draws then we should call turn otherwise just shove turn for a BE move

I am really looking forward to your comments on this (especially if you can spot any flaws in the logic/cals)

Originally posted by Dublimax
EDIT: I was doing all this when you answered Phil. So here are the maths:

On the flop his C/R range is the following:
22,99,TT,QJs,KsJs+,AsJs+,T9s
Pretty much agree with this, but you could add some combos of KK+ or even QQ+, imo there's a chance he calls some of those preflop.

Not sure about 22 but anyways it is only 1 combos.

Board: Ts9s2d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.09% 35.09% 0.00% { AdAh }
MP3 64.91% 64.91% 0.00% { TT-99, 2s2c, QJs, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, As9s }

Let's assume he is barreling turn with 100% of this range but T9s (16 combos)
Sounds ok to me, but you should keep in mind that while he's probably barreling sets 100% of the time he might sometimes check a FD.
Board: Ts9s2d2h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.45% 46.45% 0.00% { AdAh }
MP3 53.55% 53.55% 0.00% { TT-99, 2s2c, QJs, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, As9s }

EV shove:
He will fold everything but sets (T9s got counterfeited) (7 combos = 44%) vs which I have 4% equity.

Ev shove= 0.56**59.5+0.44*[0.04*202-83.5]
Ev Shove=0.12
This calculation seems correct to me.
That's a wow to me, the shove is BE. But that's because villain has such a narrow range(i.e not many FDs) since it is BB vs UTG
I expected it to me more +EV, but generally I'm not too surprised - after all we either take down the dead money or get in ~60% of our stack with almost no equity.

EV call and fold to spade:

Let's say that he keeps barreling on non spade x% and we fold to a spade (18% of the time).
sets:44%
FDs:31%
QJs:25%
vs QJs we have about 86% equity (he has 6 outs) and he will bet 100% river

EV call= -24*0.18+0.82*[0.44*(-59)-0.25*0.14*202+X*[0.311*202+0.25(0.86*202)]]
EV call= -4.32+0.82*[-33.03+X*106.25]
EV call= 0 -> X=26%
Calculation looks good.

So if villain bluffs more than 26% with his draws (FDs+SDs) our call on turn is +EV

Conclusion:
This spot is very close because villain has very little Fds in his range.
If we think that villain bluffs more than 26% when he misses his draws then we should call turn otherwise just shove turn for a BE move
Yep, correct.

I am really looking forward to your comments on this (especially if you can spot any flaws in the logic/cals)
I couldn't spot any mistakes, nice analysis!

Originally posted by Bierbaer
I couldn't spot any mistakes, nice analysis!

Cool! Always nice to hear

I think we should take into account the times he hits tp with jq/jk/kq sometimes with spades sometimes without that he c/sigh calls river with.

Originally posted by pleno1
I think we should take into account the times he hits tp with jq/jk/kq sometimes with spades sometimes without that he c/sigh calls river with.

I didn't consider those yet, but ofc you're right - this decreases the % he needs to bluff even more.

Originally posted by pleno1
I think we should take into account the times he hits tp with jq/jk/kq sometimes with spades sometimes without that he c/sigh calls river with.

Yep