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78s middle pair facing push in 3bet pot

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PickoCro
Joined: 14.04.2009

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$82.36:///////;SB (Hero)$140.56:///////;BB$104.44:///////;UTG2$103.65:///////;MP1$133.69:///////;MP2$51.72:///////;MP3$162.40:///////;CO$129.08:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8:c, 7:c.
5 folds, BU raises to $3.00, Hero raises to $10.00, BB folds, BU calls $7.00.

Flop: ($21) 4:d, J:d, 8:h (2 players)
Hero bets $12.00, BU raises to $72.36(All-In), Hero calls $60.36.

Turn: ($165.72) 9:s (2 players)

River: ($165.72) K:h (2 players)

Final Pot: $165.72.

Results follow:

Hero shows a pair of eights(8c 7c).
BU shows a pair of jacks(Td Jh).

BU wins with a pair of jacks(Td Jh).

Villian is a pretty passive fishy player (33/10 over 150 hands)... I have been runing him over, constantly raising over his limps, 3betting his raises, and he s kind of been fed up with it (made a few calls i think he usually wouldn t).

Preflop my plan is to 3bet and take it down with a cbet (he wasn t folding that much to 3bets but he was often folding to cbets in 3bet pots).

I flop mid pair c-bet and he pushes for 73BB s... I really think he can t have much here... If he slowplayed an overpair i think he d continue slowplaying cause i was playing pretty aggressive or raise it to something like 30$, also if he had a set (44 and JJ both seem pretty unlikely) he d probably just call and if he had a jack i think he d just call because he d be afraid of me having an overpair...

Only thing that seemed likely to me was a draw (some kind of 910, diamonds, q10 maybe)... I was afraid of him having 99 and 1010 which look like they could have been played by him like that, but apart from that, to me it really looked like he was fed up with me constantly raising him and decided to go with his draw...

So would you call here or just fold? All suggestions are welcome...


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Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Imo the problem is preflop.
You're saying:
a) He's a passive fish
b) you've been running him over
c) he's fed up with it and will probably play back

and then you go ahead and bluff him while you're OOP with the plan of bluffing again on the flop because you expect him not to fold preflop.
Once you're on the flop you bet because you think he's folding a lot, and when he shoves it you assume it must be a bluff.... I guess you can see the flaw in the logic ;).

To me it's a clear fold preflop, with or without history and as played a b/f on the flop:
Vs most draws we're just flipping and besides TT and 99 there are lots of Jx in his range and he can certainly have QQ+ and decide to shove it in since the board is kind of drawy.


Board: J♦4♦8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    21.83%  21.33%   0.50% { 8c7c }
MP3    78.17%  77.67%   0.50% { 88+, 44, AJs, KJs, QJs, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AJo, KJo, QJo }


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