Hi all,
I would be grateful if someone could check/validate the mathematics/assumptions made in the following EV calculations.
Scenario 1:
With 50 BB effective stacks - hero is on the BU, A player in an earlier position open raises to 3bb all other players fold. What equity is required to make a +EV 3-bet all-in over the 3bb raise assuming the initial raiser never folds?
Required equity = Risk / (Risk + Profit) = 50 / (50 + 51.5) = 0.493
EV = (W * VW) - (L * VL) = (0.493 * 51.5) - (0.507 * 50) = 25.3895 - 25.35 = 0.03985
Now if the original raiser folds to the shove 50% of the time, what is EV now?
EV = (F * VF) + 0.03985 = (.50 * 4.5) + 0.03985 = 2.25 + 0.03985 = 2.28985
Scenario 2:
With 50 bb effective stacks - hero raises to 3bb in middle position, the player on the button 3-bets to 9bb. What equity is required to make a 4bet all-in shove +EV, assuming the villain never folds?
Required equity = Risk / (Risk + Profit) = 50 / (50 + 51.5) = 0.493
EV = (W * VW) - (L * VL) = (0.493 * 51.5) - (0.507 * 50) = 25.3895 - 25.35 = 0.03985
Now if the villain folds to the shove 50% of the time, what is EV now?
EV = (F * VF) + 0.03985 = (0.50 * 10.5) + 0.03985 = 5.25 + 0.03985 = 5.28985
I wanted to make sure the above equations are correct as I'm building a spreadsheet to model 50bb all-in shoves against different raise sizes/ 3-bets etc.
Thank you!
