bad fold trips on the flop?

sorry, i made a mistake. In fact i do have position on the SB.

But my point is stil kind of valid because if he stops the betting on the river with worse hands i'll probably check behind.

Hey silelulunu!

Sb is also deep, not as deep as you but I still call and re-evaluate turn!
You have position against him and he could raise also 910, 98 and stuff like that!

So I call and re-evaluate turn!

Greets,
Tiltberger

Thank you for the reply.

I think is an interesting spot, though.
I will try to make a decision tree and i will come back so you can tell me if my estimations are good or not.

of course I'm going to do that

First, i made some asumptions and simplifications in order to make the process easier:

1. SB have no bluffs in range.
2. my actions are restricted to check,call and fold
3. I asume SB will bet every turn
4. SB will bet the river 50% of times with worse hand and will check the other 50% of times. (he will bet the river 100% of times when he have the best hand)
5. sb bet turn 1000 and bet river 1700

ok, here's my decision tree:

now, we have 3 lines of play we can take:

A. fold turn = hero will have a stack of 8877

B. call a bet on the turn and fold to a river bet=
53%*8000+ 47%(50%*11500+50%*8000)=8822

C. call a bet on the turn and call (if the case) a bet on the river=
53%6200+47%*(50%*11500+50%*13400)=9090

Conclusion:

Under the asumptions we made, there is no way we can win money by continuing with this hand. If we give up the hand on the flop we have 9277chips and if we continue with the hand we have 9090 in the long run at most.

Now, since this is an simplification, how can this result will modify when we include other possibilities?

1. If we call the flop CO could shove, SB could call, reshove or fold. This is too complex to estimate but ,as a rule of thumb, so much action in a limped pot can be a sign that trips with medium kicker is not the best hand very often.

2. sb have bluffs in range (like 77, KJ etc). I think that most of the players at this level are not capable to pure bluff check/3bet here at all . Even those with a bluffing range will probably have a ratio of bluffs/(bluffs+value) pretty low.

Let's quickly say we have 20% capable of this bluff, bluffs are 25% of SB's total range and he will fire multiple streets in 60% of times. If we multiply those numbers we see that a we win a big pot from a spew line only 3% of times. If we aply this 3% to a win of let's say 4000, is only +120 in EV.

So bluffs don't make a big diference here.

3.SB will bet more on the turn and/or river especially with the nuts. This will not improve our results, i think

4.SB will bet turn and river with worse hands 80% of time. This will improve our result by calling but we can still have a negative impact from the point 3

This is longer then i thought