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100 turn bet?

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Krach-Bumm-Ente
Joined: 01.05.2006

PokerStars - $1 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.46, PFR: 16.32, 3Bet Preflop: 6.78, Hands: 1,235)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 48.01 BB (VPIP: 28.16, PFR: 10.68, 3Bet Preflop: 0.94, Hands: 208)
UTG: 154.17 BB (VPIP: 26.26, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 102)
MP: 100.74 BB (VPIP: 31.45, PFR: 20.71, 3Bet Preflop: 6.55, Hands: 2,111) house_advntg
CO: 100.66 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 3)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ A♣ K♥ 9♦

fold, MP raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 8♠ K♣ 5♣
Hero bets 7 BB, fold, MP calls 7 BB

Turn: (24.5 BB, 2 players) Q♥
Hero ?

Villain is house_advntg. He raised me a lot on later streets (especially the turn) lately, quite often with semidraws or merged with rather weak made hands.
I wasn't sure if I should bet here as I'd hate a raise. I have ok equity but if we get it in there I'm afraid I won't do too well. c/c sucks major ass though and I don't accomplish much with c/r.


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7 replies
z1ngs
Joined: 18.09.2008

Bet/gii all day long. Flop bigger though.
You say he can raise with semi draws and weak made hands?
You are crushing that range.


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

why would u hate a raise? You are like flipping vs a set Barrelz, 3bet pre.

Regards,

Skod


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Krach-Bumm-Ente
Joined: 01.05.2006

AcTcKh9d 23.56% 4,564 69
88:25% 76.44% 14,887 69

edit: i refer to the turn, just to not misunderstand each other

and:
AcTcKh9d 29.43% 20,219 1,380
KQ:25% 70.57% 49,441 1,380


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

I misseread the hand

Thought you had AKJT.

Yeah i would still fire turn or vs stabby player go for a c/rai. He just has too many weaker fd's, Kxxx and wraps in his range that we are way too ahead of to consider folding here.

Regards,

Skod


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Krach-Bumm-Ente
Joined: 01.05.2006

This is a rather common problem spot for me versus not-so-stabby players. I think I bet/broked but can also imagine a c/r to be good vs. this kind of player.
Versus regular, not-so-stabby players I always bet the turn here and I have a really hard time when I get raised. I just wouldn't know what to do, b/f seems to be the right play odds-wise but it seems so weird to b/f this hand.


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z1ngs
Joined: 18.09.2008

Say you bet like $20. Then you need about 35% to stack off.
vs [KQ,QQ] you indeed have only 29%
vs [KQ,QQ,KJT : cc,AJT : cc,QJT : cc,Q8 : cc] you have 34.8%
vs [KQ,QQ,JT : cc,Q8 : cc] you have 38.5%

It's actually not such an easy bet/gii


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Originally posted by z1ngs
Say you bet like $20. Then you need about 35% to stack off.
vs [KQ,QQ] you indeed have only 29%
vs [KQ,QQ,KJT : cc,AJT : cc,QJT : cc,Q8 : cc] you have 34.8%
vs [KQ,QQ,JT : cc,Q8 : cc] you have 38.5%

It's actually not such an easy bet/gii

Yeah but add some QTJ9fd, or some other weaker combodraw with the 2nd nut suit, and we are all but sure to win those hands. The question is obviously would they jam.

It's close tho. Like you guys mentioned at first glance it seems a super easy stackoff. But i really don't think we can ever fold if we get potraised. I mean we definetly have the 33% we would need to call that raise, and i guess we could fold if our tptk doesn't improve? It's a wierd spot. I mean i doubt any player could really say this is a b/f.

Regards,

Skod


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