NL10SH ZOOM JJ

Don't see how CO is ever bluffing here, I think easy fold.

He has 66,22,99,33, 54s all in his range. That's 14 combos of value and you need to win 28.5% so you need 6 bluff combos before this is a profitable call. There isn't really anything for him to bluff here except 87s, 4 combos and he has to always bluff the river with them, I don't think he will raise worse for value either. Yes he's aggro but also this is 3 way pot opened by UTG. imo good value bet otr but easy fold when he raises.

The only argument I can make for calling is that our hand is somewhat underrepped and also pretty much top of our range as played but still I just think nl10 river raises are just so nutted that we should just exploitatively fold here still.

Is not there better line to be taken here?
You are going into 3 player pot wittingly with pregnable hand. You will not be sure about Your hand strenght if Q,K,A will come on flop. Also possibility of trips, if Your JJ stands to be highest ranking cards on flop can be scary vs two players.
So I would take squeeze line preflop and cbet once on such flop (for possible broadways to fold) and reassess on Turn.

Feels like hes never bluffing here but I dont think he represent that much really. I think he would fold 45 pf to mps rasie, at least most plaryers at nl10 do. His VPIP 0f 40 % over few hands might indikate that he calls 45s though. On the flop he would/should bet 99, he checks behind. Also if he has 33 I think he should bet them otf.

I think that you can take out all combos of 99, and at least take out some combos of 45 and 33. Not sure of how many combos for value he has but not that value Heavy anyway? However you do get the gut feeling that hes never bluffing here, nobody does...

Originally posted by metza
Don't see how CO is ever bluffing here, I think easy fold.

He has 66,22,99,33, 54s all in his range. That's 14 combos of value and you need to win 28.5% so you need 6 bluff combos before this is a profitable call. There isn't really anything for him to bluff here except 87s, 4 combos and he has to always bluff the river with them, I don't think he will raise worse for value either. Yes he's aggro but also this is 3 way pot opened by UTG. imo good value bet otr but easy fold when he raises.

The only argument I can make for calling is that our hand is somewhat underrepped and also pretty much top of our range as played but still I just think nl10 river raises are just so nutted that we should just exploitatively fold here still.

All of that sounds like very good advice.
Although you do see some nonsensical stuff at NL10, without info suggesting villain is very weak (<100bb stack, prior experience etc) I think we have to hate life and fold as, as metza suggested, nothing worse raises for value.

@ metza: yeah, that sounds pretty sensible. my thoughts where pretty much the same as jonnyZ. That is he had such a strong hand as 66,22 or 99 he probably would have raises before the river and my hand is pretty much underrepped. so I only really considered 33 and 45 and 78 is this senario and although I know a reraise on the river in most of the time for value 33 and 45 seemed also not really likely.

I guess if hes a fish he could have T8s, T7s, 57s as bluffs otr to. In that case he indeed got 45s in his range to. In the end what did he show up with?

@ jonnyZ: 22

3bet pre is standar in my game.
And then cbet flop.Bet turn and if call turn and value vs aggro monkey in river.