2nd bar GS vs short fish?

Vs 100bb stack this would be ok play. You could cbet the flop there since you have 2 overs, any 9 gives you a OESD and any K or Q gives you a gutshot. But we have to remember that the board is paired.. Then you could fire OTT too when you improve your hand, you would have some fold equity and actual equity.

BUT since the villain is super short and you have A high with backdoors on the flop I think it would be best to just check. With his stack size there is a risk he shoves with a wide range and you just can't call a shove. Also in case he calls your flop bet he is never giving up OTT with 13BB left.

The problem with looking at fold to cbet stat is that I believe he can change his playing style according to his stack size.. If he started with full stack he might fold a lot but when he has only very little left he will start shoving a lot.

From my experience it´s good to cbet against fish (usually and esp with this f to cbet). But whe fish calls, I don´t think we can make him fold anyhow - maybe 3 barreling/shoving somewhere, but that doesn´t simply worth the risk.

Actually I don´t think it really matters if he is short stack or not, because he is fish, they just don´t give a damn about their stacks. For example I made fold fish OTR, when he had 2BB left and in the pot was about 50BB. WTF right? But yeah, this is extreme, but I´ve seen simillar things happening a lot.

So, to sum up. I would cbet there as well, but then give up, because the fact fish calls, means he has something and (most likely) not giving it up.

What do you think guys? Btw my opinion is based on my experience, so you might find it wrong, however I´ve found it work.

I do not like the play. Villain can call with a PP. We can check flop.

If we have a read that he folds alot to flop cbets, I don't mind a cbet, but I would check by default vs a shortstack (probably fold vs a bigger bet). Not sure can we check/call this flop? As played, I think I would check/fold the turn because even though K might be a scared card, his range is strong when he calls the flop and I don't expect to have a fold equity.

Another option vs a fish would be to cbet the flop small imo. We could be called by worse + we could make him fold the equity he has with worse hands.

If villain is fit-or-fold, then I'd bet the flop and x/c OTR.

But we have to remember that the board is paired..

it is paired, but what did you want to say?

You have a decent hand because you have overcards and you can improve your hand on later streets. But I'm not sure if our backdoors are that great because the board is paired. This means that full houses will beat our made straight and we actually have some reverse implied odds too.
So basically our hand would be better if the board wasn't paired.

You say, that Villain folds a lot on the flop. Therefore you bet the flop to expect a high frequency of folds.

Now... what is the conclusion of this regarding to the turn?

His callingrange will most likely not fold. I mean ok, you picked up a gutshot and it makes sense to barrel sometimes. But vs. someone who folds a lot on the flop, this can be a nice check on the turn and maybe an overbet on the river if it goes check/check.