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JJ facing turn raise

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jxb1977
Joined: 13.08.2009

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players

UTG: $4.46 (89 bb)
MP: $9.44 (189 bb)
CO: $5.57 (111 bb)
BU: $17.02 (340 bb)
SB (Hero): $6.62 (132 bb)
BB: $5.85 (117 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with J J
4 players fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30) T 4 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, BB calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.55, BB raises to $1.63, SB (Hero) ??

These are the situations I struggle with most in game as I think this is super close between call or fold. Saying that this is NL5, so do you think they ever have enough semi bluffs on the turn to counter act the made straight, sets and two pairs?


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8 replies
zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I wouldn't bet twice.
What worse hands do you really see anyone calling a double barrel? this is BvB, he doesn't have any overpair bigger than yours, he won't call with Tx twice. You are just isolating yourself against better stuff.
Again, they won't raise you here with bluffs. You also block some of them.


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WaterDragon26
Joined: 30.06.2019

combinations that you were behind of:
6x7x = 16 combinations
4x5x = 9 combinations
TT = 3 combinations
55 = 3 combinations
44 = 3 combinations

combinations that you were ahead of:
AxTx = 12 combinations

I wouldn't include KxTx, because his actions were showing too much strength. But, I understand the struggle. Players on such limits do unpredictable things.


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jxb1977
Joined: 13.08.2009

Hi, thanks for the reply. Can I ask what your line would be on the turn? x/c then reevaluate on the river? Also are we saying if I bet here villain calls with draws and raises with two pair and better?


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jxb1977
Joined: 13.08.2009

Hi WaterDragon, thanks for the response. I think we can probably discount AT as I would expect a 3B pre but as you said unpredictable things can happen on NL5.

My thoughts on the combos were this,

6x7x = 16 combinations
4x5x = 9 combinations
TT = 3 combinations
55 = 3 combinations
44 = 3 combinations
Tx8x = 9 combinations
T5s = 2 combo
T4s = 2 combo
88 = combos

So 50 combos of value and as said above I doubt he is raising any 10x. So question is the villain ever going to have 97o or J9o here. If they are then it's a pretty close call (18 combos) but the more I think about it villain is probably unlikely to call 97o pre and on flop. I still think he could have A4s A3s or A2s and even a 32s here but without 97o there are just not enough bluff combos to merit a call.

Spoiler

fwiw I folded


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WaterDragon26
Joined: 30.06.2019

Hello, jxb1977! I would have folded on the turn too (bet, fold). And, I think you have a point; we could re-evaluate the inclusion of AT. I wouldn't include J9 or 97 though because of the call on the flop. Thank you for the question, by the way. You've reminded me that I used to ask myself why I should call. To which the answer would be, he'd call with 76 and 54 preflop only if they were suited dragging the numbers of combinations down to 4 and 2 respectively. And, you're right; T8s should also be included adding 2 more combinations. But, you know what, when I ask myself why I should call without asking why I shouldn't, I make a mistake more often than not, which is usually more expensive than just making a wrong fold.


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WaterDragon26
Joined: 30.06.2019

In my opinion, after all of these calculations, it all boils down to villain's tendencies. Did you have any read? Was he thinking? What range could he have put you on? Did he even consider you having an over pair possible? Thank you for your post, and I'd like to discuss this further if you have any more ideas.


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jxb1977
Joined: 13.08.2009

Hi WaterDragon no reads as only played 2 hands with villain. You are right 97 and J9 are not likely to call flop. So as played a fold is the only option. I think zetozinho is right and betting twice here is bad given the board and villains range having called the flop. A check would be the best play as I keep in any 10x or air in villains range.

As for the villain he probably should include some complete air or draws in his raise or bet range OTT as it is so value heavy. Happy to be corrected if you feel that my thinking is flawed. Obviously it is NL5 so having a balanced bet/raise range OTT is probably not necessary but still interesting to think about (well for me it is :f_smile: )


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GridironAssassin
Joined: 19.12.2014

Flop is fine, can go smaller on such dry textures.

Turn again is fine. I like betting here with majority of my range. It helps combat his floats. Sizing is debatable. I think I would have been more like 1/3 pot on flop and @ 1/2 pot on turn with intention of bet folding. You can consider checking QQ+ on low cards like this trying to induce from the weakest parts of his range since you need less protection the bigger your pairs are. You are also heavily blocking his potential turn bluffs.


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