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[Closed] nl50 Rush - AQo - oop vs reg

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($20.75)
BB ($14.50)
Hero ($50)
UTG+1 ($61.75)
CO ($42.80)
BTN ($52.65)

Dealt to Hero A♥ Q♣

Hero raises to $2, fold, CO calls $2, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($4.75) 9♠ 2♦ Q♥

Hero bets $4, CO calls $4

TURN ($12.75) 9♠ 2♦ Q♥ J♠

Hero checks, CO checks

RIVER ($12.75) 9♠ 2♦ Q♥ J♠ T♥

Hero checks, CO bets $12.75, Hero folds

CO wins $12.15

villain is a regular 29/20/2, wts 30, 500 hands, 3b 8%
I would give villain a range for calling my pot size cb on this flop something like:{99,9Ts,J9s,AQ,KQ,22,TJ,KTs, QJs}. Does this seem about right?

I have about 52.9% equity versus this range on the turn. Given that we would have to fold to a raise now, is it worth value betting again? is my turn play too weak?

Against the above range, on the River I have only 8% equity so check/fold seems correct.

thanks


2 replies

His range on the flop is much wider than your estimation.

He has at the minimum 99/22, QTs+, KQo+, almost any pocket pair, JTs, various 9x, a couple of Ace high floats, and a couple of gutshots+BDFD floats (KJs, T8s, etcetera).

So you should bet the turn for value (and fold to a raise).

As played river is a check/fold.


Originally posted by falcone1983
His range on the flop is much wider than your estimation.

He has at the minimum 99/22, QTs+, KQo+, almost any pocket pair, JTs, various 9x, a couple of Ace high floats, and a couple of gutshots+BDFD floats (KJs, T8s, etcetera).

So you should bet the turn for value (and fold to a raise).

As played river is a check/fold.

+1
I would also barrel turn, since Js is not the worst card in the deck and he can still call you with worse hands like pair+draw or Qx
I also would c/f river