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[Closed] NL10 MSS: AK, pair+gutshot no good?

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random3
Joined: 21.02.2007

This happened on rush table, and villain was new, so no stats or reads.(12/0 over 8 hands)

Coming to the river, I realized this is not a spot I want to put myself into.
Could I fold or shove this at some points before river?

Our equity on flop & turn (assuming villain has at least 2 pair or better):

Flop:
Hero 27.49% 24.92% 2.57% AcKh
Villain 72.51% 69.94% 2.57% JJ, AQs-AJs, KTs, QJs, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo

Turn:
Hero 32.10% 31.25% 0.85% AcKh
Villain 67.90% 67.05% 0.85% JJ, AQs-AJs, KTs, QJs, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo

What do you guys think, any advice appreciated.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($10.50)
BB ($13.60)
UTG ($12.28)
UTG+1 ($6.49)
UTG+2 ($3.01)
Hero ($8.53)
MP2 ($10)
CO ($6.39)
BTN ($7.78)

Dealt to Hero K♥ A♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.25, fold

FLOP ($0.70) J♥ Q♠ A♥

SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.45

TURN ($2.50) J♥ Q♠ A♥ 5♥

SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

RIVER ($7.50) J♥ Q♠ A♥ 5♥ 3♦

SB bets $6.80 (AI), Hero ??


3 replies
Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

Does villain ever check/raise worse? Does his range strengthen on the TUrn if he does c/r worse?


random3
Joined: 21.02.2007

If he has a worse hand, I believe it's either gutshot(+pair), flushdraw or bluff.
On the turn his fd hit so that puts his flushdraws in the group of hands that beat us, and we are only left beating gutshots/complete bluffs.

I think this makes it a clear fold on the turn after he fires a full psb.

On the flop I still think it could be an ok call, given our equity in the pot.


Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

I think I just bet/fold the Flop because if we fold the Turn on a blank as well , then we are better off folding the Flop immdiately though it is a minraise. I dont think he will c/minriase ATo for example