[Closed] [NL100] AQ vs TAG going crazy?

Originally posted by LemOn36
IPoker Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -

Hero (UTG): $103.58
CO: $108.20
BTN: $100.00
SB: $100.00
BB: $106.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 7 A 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.36, CO raises to $15, Hero calls $8.62

Turn: ($38.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $28.00, Hero calls $28

River: ($94.5) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $61.70, Hero: ???

I was playing pretty tight so far as I wasn't getting good hands, some 19/16 or something like that. I should have a pretty solid image don't think I showed any noteworthy light calls or big bluffs so far.

Villain is:
23/19 3bet 6.3 WWSF 42% WTSD 31% Aggression 1.8 an raise cbet of 9% over a decent data mined sample. No special reads, I didn't see him get out of line so far this session.

Analysis:
1) His postflop aggression is kind of low, that tells me he rarely raises with flush draws in position. That makes his cbet-raising-range pretty polarized (air / monsters), I guess.
You're overrating/misapplying the aggression factor: How do you know he doesn't slowplay his monsters and only raises FDs?
You can make an assumption what he's doing, but you cannot draw this conclusion from the stats.

2) His raise on the flop is super-small (almost a minraise), despite the board being draw-heavy. That again (compared with his polarized range) tells me that he´s more likely bluffing than valuebetting. He's repping 66/77 or nothing, and I don't expect a TAG opponent to minraise set on this board.
You could also argue he wants to semibluff cheaply IP with a FD, or that he does this with sets because he wants you to think he's trying a cheap bluff ;).

3) So turn and river are pretty much complete blanks and I can safely call him down right?

Personally I'd b/f the flop.
Imo his range for raising here is pretty strong: Most people will virtually never bluffraise because they are afraid we have too many Ax in our range.
The same goes for FDs, they're afraid they don't have foldequity so they just don't raise them (given the positions).

Also you don't have any reads and by calling the flop you more or less commit yourself to calling blank turns and rivers, i.e. you pretty much make a decision for stacks even though you invested less than 10BB up to now.

If you start calling (as played), the turncall is standard.
On the river it depends on what you assume, personally I'd fold because imo this is either a set going for thin value or a flush. I can't see too many bluffs in his range.