29/21/2/33/396, c-bet 3betpot 100(6), c-bet turn 78(9)
Relyed on those stats I made that move
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($105)
BB ($248)
Hero ($100)
UTG+1 ($113)
CO ($100)
BTN ($128)
Dealt to Hero K♠ A♦
Hero raises to $3, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $9, fold, Hero calls $6
FLOP ($19) 8♦ 8♠ 2♦
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12
TURN ($43) 8♦ 8♠ 2♦ 7♠
SB bets $32, Hero raises to $79 (AI)
Now I think I had no fold-equity and I was way behind.
I think vs him it's ok.
It depends a bit on how much he 3bets vs UTG-openraises, but given the stats you provided to me it looks like he is usually trying to get those AK and AQ floats to fold by 2ndbarreling a lot.
I'd assume he doesn't follow through too much on the river, that's why I prefer shoving over calling (he has up to 6 outs so we don't want to give him a free card).
We risk 80 for a total pot of 155 so we need a bit over 50% foldequity which we should have given that a maximum of half his range is overpairs (in case he has {QQ+,AK}.
If he 3bets more, he usually does so with unpaired hands, which means the bluffing-part of his range is bigger.
And if we shove and get called we even have 10-15% potequity depending on how his range actually looks like.
