Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($25)
Hero ($25.35)
UTG ($56.55)
CO ($25)
BTN ($32)
Dealt to Hero A♠ K♠
fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25
FLOP ($3) 9♠ J♠ Q♣
SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, SB raises to $5.50, Hero calls $3.25
TURN ($14) 9♠ J♠ Q♣ K♣
SB bets $7, Hero ?
180 hands against vilain who is 20/10/AF:3.3
he limp calls 100%, Check-raise flop 18%
I prefer a fold, but call is probably fine.
flop check-minraise looks like a strong made hand, maybe a set or KT. Unlikely for him to have a draw since I think check/call is most likely. Hence, you are calling for your nut flush outs not overcard outs.
Turn misses, you are getting 3:1 on a call so need 25% equity for direct pot odds. You have possibly 9 flush outs (but sometimes 2 are tainted) and 3 gutshot outs although sometimes these are for the tie, not the win. Let's say 10 outs on average for roughly 20% equity. You technically don't have direct pot odds to call but the extra $11 you make on the river will get you there I think (depending on if he ever folds river or not)
It's close, I just prefer a fold for variance sake. I think the fact you have top pair here is almost irrelevant vs his flop check-minraise range.
EDIT, I didn't see the flop c/r stats, but assuming this is over a large enough sample (which seems unlikely) 3bet flop is good imo + shove any turn.
