NL100SH: Top and bottom 2 meets aggression

Timor83

Joined: 08.06.2007

22.01.2008, 01:16 0

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;SB$300.20:129/13/12/0.0/36/47/35/75;Hero$148.36:///////;BB$128.91:143/36/18/1.5/30/49/33/54;[/tg]
0.50/1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.7 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3♣, A♣
Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3.00, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($10.50) 3♠, 7♥, A♥ (3 players)
SB bets $8, BB folds, Hero raises to $25.00, SB raises to $60.00, Hero raises to $144.86 (All-In), SB calls $84.86.

Turn: ($300.22) 4♠
River: ($300.22) 2♦

Final Pot: $300.22

Was my shove correct, or should I have folded? Villain is not the greatest and has a high WTS, but he's showing a lot of strength by betting into the preflopraiser and reraising my reraise. Ow yeah, and AF should be 7.5, so he's pretty aggro. Extra aspect that made the decision more difficult is that we're deepstacked.
Pokerstove gives me 45% equity against this range:
AA,77,33,AQs+,A7s,AQo+,A7o

If I exclude AA and AK (would've 3-bet preflop), it's 33% or so.

4 replies

Nunki

Joined: 25.10.2006

Posts: 953

22.01.2008, 02:25 0

I am pretty sure that I'd have played this hand the same way as you, but having time to reflect I'm not so sure its a good idea. I assume that you and villain have no history.

Beyond pfr and vp$ip, most stats take more than 129 hands to converge to anything like a reasonable estimate; with someone who plays only a few hands it obviously takes even longer to collect sufficient data. 36% wts BUT w$sd 75% with a high AF (13/12 pre-flop as well) makes me think that this villain has been running pretty hot and value-betting like mad versus the table. Weak-tight players (against whom you have to fold flop) also have highly skewed AF's.

With this in mind, I doubt this villain hardly ever calls PF with A-x type hands and certainly not from the blinds. If he views you as an over-aggro open-raiser (as I did when you played NL25 FR on Party ;)) then he MAY smooth call PF with AA in case you fold to his 3bet PF. The action on the flop doesn't look like TP unless villain is terrible (you did not say why villain is not the greatest) but more like a monster/bluff.

Timor83

Joined: 08.06.2007

Posts: 720

22.01.2008, 10:39 0

Lol, did we play together at NL25? And you still remember my style?
When I was playing NL25 on party I was experimenting with very loose-aggressive play, I have calmed down a little bit ;).

Blackfear

Joined: 24.01.2007

Posts: 4,175

22.01.2008, 16:14 0

Hi,
As you raised preflop and show so much strength on the flop and are still reraise , I strongly believe that Vilain beats AK at least ( or either play his draw overaggressively)
Since for me Top Pair+ bottom pair is about the same strength as TPTK ( no hand in beetween on this board (since he has not 73 i guess) , i think you can find a fold after his 60$ reraise because your are too deep

The few times when he will do that with a draw you will still have "only 65%" equity .

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Thorsten77

Joined: 28.05.2006

Posts: 11,209

24.01.2008, 20:35 0

I think its fine - he may have a strong draw or an AK hand. Only sets beat us and those are not that likely when having 2 pair.

Skype: thorsten.schaefer.de

[Closed] NL100SH: Top and bottom 2 meets aggression