[Closed] going broke w top 2 pair drawy board

Yeah, just get it in

I like your play as well.

There are worse 2p and many draws that would get it in.

PS: how often does he ck/raise?

C/R flop:9%

That's actually really low.

my mistake it is 13%.

@z1pz0r: what would you do vs C/R 9%? and in this case where it is 13%?

Well first of all I don't think he's ever bluffing here.
So you need to be ahead 43,75% of time.
On range that I give him (TT-99,KTs,QJs,T9s,KdQd,KdJd,8d7d,KTo,QJo,T9o) we have 37,32% equity (I'm not even sure if he raises bottom 2 pair, is that normal on such board? Against the same range we have 22% equity, a bit more if we add AdQd, AdJd).
Reason why I didn't include AdQd and AdJd is cuse I think he 3bets them PF, probably 3bets KdQd too. You must also consider your own fold to 3bet stat when stealing and play strictly 4bet/fold, he will adapt by calling AQ, AJ, KJ and 3bet only with air.

But that's just my opinion.

I think we could add with KdQ as well with top pair+ gut shot + back door FD against which I have 40%.

Board: KcTd9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 40.02% 34.05% 5.98% { KsTc }
MP3 59.98% 54.00% 5.98% { TT-99, KTs, QJs, T9s, KdQd, KdJd, 8d7d, KTo, QJo, T9o, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc }

So I think it is close but if we add AdJd+that he wouldn't have 3B pre - let's say 30% of the time we probably have the odds for a shove. But it is very close

Originally posted by z1pz0r
You must also consider your own fold to 3bet stat when stealing and play strictly 4bet/fold, he will adapt by calling AQ, AJ, KJ and 3bet only with air.

I am very curious to know more about this. Can you expand a little more?
My fold to 3B is 68% and I steal about 40%
Why should I play 4B/fold?

I am not saying what you should 4bet and not.

The thing is that you could exclude AQs and maybe AJs, KQs and TT since he probably 3bets those hands preflop for value, as you call about 30% of times.
If you're stealing with 40% of hands and calling with 30% that means you're calling about 12% of your BU range, also 4betting some percentage.
Against those 12% he will be ahead with such hands, that's why he 3bets (apart from getting money from your folds and getting aggro image).

If you would fold something like 80% to 3bets and you would 4bet 20% then he would call with such hands, because he can only expect fold or 4bet from you. You would get 3betted by monsters and pure air only, since he doesnt need any postflop equity. He doesn't want to 3bet AQ because you would only play 4bet/fold.

I'm of course not saying you should be doing that. I'm just trying to explain my thoughts in previous post.

Weird spot, but it's fold then if he never bluffs IMO. LOL. Even if he has super wide value range, like AdQd-Ad2d,KdQd-Kd9d,QJ,TT-99,KT-K9,T9,8d7d we have only 49%. But I still expect ppl to c/r some gutshots with bd fd and other random stuff, so I'd get it in mostly and we need 46.5%.

@z1pz0r:

your post makes completely sense regarding his 3B range vs my calling range - just thougth the 4B/Fold was some kind of new concept.

yep makes sense that he probably 3B TT, AQ, AJ because he is ahead of my 3B calling range, Eventhough he could flat AQ,TT thinking they are too good to be folded to a 4B. but yeah def KQsand propably KJs. so as you said if he is never bluffing it is probably a fold.

Imo this is a call on the flop.

There are not many hands in a 16% resteal range that hit this board.
Even KQ should just not be in his range.
Vs most draws we're doing ok, but I think the EV is higher if we call and let him barrel turns (the plan is to shove).
If there's a diamond, Q or J we have to fold which is about 1/3 of turns. But since his range is weighted so much towards the draws we rarely fold the best hand.

If he happens to have more made hands than we expected the call flop raise turn line is also better because we get the same result on blank turns but avoid getting the money in on the diamonds, Q and J.

So in general you are saying that IP with a made hand and if we are sure that villain has a FD:

if villain C/R flop and we are sure that he will barrel turn when missing his flush EV wise it is better to call the flop and shove turn than shoving flop?

Yes.

Math:
100BB stacks, we raise 3 preflop on BU, he calls in BB.
Let's say he has 35% on the flop, 20% on the turn.

6.5BB in the pot on the flop.
We bet 5BB, he c/r to 15.

a) We shove. He has to call 82 for a pot of 200, therefore needs 41%. If he still calls he loses 0.35*200BB - 82BB = -12BB.

b) We call.
~20% of the time he hits and we c/b and give up, so we lost 15BB.
80% of the time the pot is 36.5BB, he bets f.e. 24BB we shove so he has 58 to call in a 200 pot, so needs 29%.
If he still calls his EV is 0.2*200BB-58BB = -18BB.

So the total EV for us is -0.2*15 + 0.8*18 = -3 + 14.4 = +11.4BB

As you see it's close, but I think some opponent will fold vs the 3bet on the flop, especially with non-NFDs whereas on the turn most will b/c because they think with the 58 for the big pot they're committed.

One last thought:
It is so close that I rather call because we're IP and by having a wider range we can generally make his life harder, i.e. generate more profitable spots.
E.g. if he has a checkraise-bluffingrange he cannot just fire any turn if we call strong hands here whereas if we 3bet the top of our range he can happily barrel turns because our range is weak.