NL600 random spot in a vacuum

hi mbml :),

This time, without the ready recipe, but with some insight aiming at developing this discussion so that its more generic and takes like 10 pages.

Firstly, betting turn should give additional FE.
Secondly, turn card should not be that coordinated to the board(?) or should it be (and in which spots)?

I'll add more asap as there is some discussion. Then we gonna do some maths.

cheers,
Michal

i think that checking back sometimes with turned draws is important as it allows you to pot control more mid-strength made hands and bluff more rivers. Hard to do when you insta-barrel any turned equity.

That being a think a bet is preferable a decent % of the time

Not too sure if randomizing it by having a pair or not having a pair is better, i.e picking spots from the times you do have a pair/gutshot like this to chk back , or just picking the times when you have no immediate equity.

ThOughts on villains value and bluff range on different cards if we check back turn here?

I think we should just keep things simple and bet to fold out Jx. Dont think he peels many 9Ts/QJs combos pre so its pretty tough for him to continue.

Plus we have tonne of equity ♦

To start, I think that 3.5x from any position is a pretty significant leak in today's SH games. Even if there's a huge fish in the blinds etc, wider range>larger size. We're not even really UTG here, its 5handed.

Now that we have 3.5x and see a flat from the SB+c/c though, his range is really face-up/capped here.

Definitely betting turn with this hand 100% (and pretty much all decent equity hands.) Sizing wise, strongly consider ~1.2x.

Originally posted by mbml[/]And also I think if we check back and raise River (when we spike) it has a ton of deception value

What do you mean by this? Are you raising a bet if the river is an 8/10/diamond or only some of those 3 "spikes"? If you're only raising a river bet with a flush (this is theoretical, not saying you are but I think that's default for many) then it's not really deceptive, it's just a "does he have it" spot for villain.

3.5bb in MP with 98s is going to be too loose as a default. Doesn't need much of a table dynamic (fish / nits anywhere) to be fine though of course.

When SB calls a 3.5bb raise vs MP.. we can pin point his range down precisely:

88-QQ,AQ,AJs,KQs, occasionally AK,KK+,AJo

On this flop betting makes sense only against his AQ+/KQ to either get thin value (through getting a float or check raise bluff) or to make those hands fold their equity. Contrast with AJ/88+ I don't think that makes too much sense. So I really don't see any good reason to bet the flop for a smallish bet.

On the turn, 88+ pick up equity and will not fold to a normal sized bet. Floated KQ/AQ will obviously not fold. AJ without the turned flushdraw might fold.

Overall I don't see a good reason to put money in on the turn, you will just invest your bet with an average of maybe 38% equity.

If you think he will not have many sets in his turn range, so that you are mostly looking at AJ/99/TT/AQ, it might be reasonable to fire a really big turn bet, forcing him to fold his middle pairs (or pay off a big bet vs your KK+).

But both the flop bet and turn bet here seem really random. You just make him fold his air and put money in versus his better hands.