[Closed] K9s iso

Yeah im not folding ♦

yea...It's obv a draw or TPTK or else why would he over shove like this?

Still a gamble vs any diamond imo not sure if we should call here??

Maybe not. At first I didnt actually notice how deep we are. I guess vs ranges it probs gnna be around 55/45 (cba equilating). Now its pretty high variance here - and with our stack on the line Im not so sure.

In a theoretical situation where this was a dead on 50/50 I would be folding. So I guess question is does the 5% really make that much difference. We Are gnna be making like 1.5kish chips if we win this "flip". Tbh there are probably better ways to chip up - imo if we can we should try to avoid coinflips kinda early on in mtts, outlasting donks and increasing our stack by nonsd methods warrants us a lot of $EV in the longterm.

I think I've persuaded myself there that maybe its correct to fold ♦

nah, probably always a call, coz sometimes when he shows up with like 2 pair, or 89 no diamond, we have lots of equity

if u want to iso fish who limps UTG and ur in EP too whit shity hand u should imo raise biger to start with, in this spot i'll raise it to 650

as played i'll fold, he has made hand almost 99,9% of time and u r not doing very great vs his range which would be AK,98, sets, KdQ,KdJ,KdT, low flushes AdQ,AdJ,AdT, 2 pairs

so vs that range u r ether fliping (slight fav) or way way behind so imo fold should be best with those stack sizes

but agaiin i'll fold pre (cos u have shity hand) or if i decide to raise ill raise bigger, cos when donk limps utg he likes his ahnd and he will call very very often your raise and when u make it small u r also inviting other players behind u and having 0% FEQ vs utg limper

true about raising bigger, and my hand is nuts against his range preflop.
yeah, if you do include made flushes in his range, then i am an underdog, but i doubt that he would play a made flush that way and AK is quite unlikely

Originally posted by bonebt
as played i'll fold, he has made hand almost 99,9% of time and u r not doing very great vs his range which would be AK,98, sets, KdQ,KdJ,KdT, low flushes AdQ,AdJ,AdT, 2 pairs

I think you're giving him way too much credit there, looking only at how he played this hand you can see he's not exactly a reg. I think Qx, with or without a diamond is possible. sets or AK aren't likely cos of the limp/call pre too.

I think a fold is bad, it's still early so there's no bubble factor. Even if it is only 55% it's still like 16bb worth of EV.

Originally posted by bradomurder
16bb worth of EV.

Are you sure?

Not really, is this right?

.55x(11900+1125)-.45*11900=1800

so it's 12bb right?

Originally posted by bradomurder

Originally posted by bonebt
as played i'll fold, he has made hand almost 99,9% of time and u r not doing very great vs his range which would be AK,98, sets, KdQ,KdJ,KdT, low flushes AdQ,AdJ,AdT, 2 pairs

I think you're giving him way too much credit there, looking only at how he played this hand you can see he's not exactly a reg. I think Qx, with or without a diamond is possible. sets or AK aren't likely cos of the limp/call pre too.

I think a fold is bad, it's still early so there's no bubble factor. Even if it is only 55% it's still like 16bb worth of EV.

he almost never has a strong made hand. he would never shove ahigh or other high made flushes in that spots. its very often set/twoopair, topair + fd and stuff like that.
i'll call too allthough its not that beautiful with so many bbs

Originally posted by bonebt
if u want to iso fish who limps UTG and ur in EP too whit shity hand u should imo raise biger to start with, in this spot i'll raise it to 650

as played i'll fold, he has made hand almost 99,9% of time and u r not doing very great vs his range which would be AK,98, sets, KdQ,KdJ,KdT, low flushes AdQ,AdJ,AdT, 2 pairs

so vs that range u r ether fliping (slight fav) or way way behind so imo fold should be best with those stack sizes

but agaiin i'll fold pre (cos u have shity hand) or if i decide to raise ill raise bigger, cos when donk limps utg he likes his ahnd and he will call very very often your raise and when u make it small u r also inviting other players behind u and having 0% FEQ vs utg limper

i never said that he has strong made hand most of the time but fish do limp call AK/TT/JJ and they do limp call small suited connectors and do over shove on that flop

Not sure I'm 3betting this pre-flop.flop I'm check shoving most of the time