[Closed] 100rush: cold4bet bluff spot (IP)

if the msser often folds to 3bet , nice squeeze

Imo the 3bettor will fold everything except for KK and AA (maybe I'm wrong here and people play back vs cold4bets on your site, but I kinda doubt it).

We risk 21 for 34.5 (need rouhgly a 66% chance of succes), so if he even only 3bets 3-4% of the time we have the foldequity to make the move +EV.

=> Good spot imo.

well imo given positions+my high 4bet, he will probally also ship AK+QQ (maybe once in a while a bluff hand but not too often), i still think with a 5% 3bet its +EV tho.

yeah i dont make a habit of cold 4betting people when they are 3betting nits ............. esp when the 3bettor is not a huge 3b monkey or anything. whats the sample of that 94% fold to 3b?

actually im not sure why i didnt say this in the first place but.. opener has 6% pfr. SIX PERCENT. his fold to 3b is obviously variance and ur 4b is probably breakeven if the 3bettor NEVER shoves lol. and he probably ships it pretty often aswell.

Originally posted by randomdonk
actually im not sure why i didnt say this in the first place but.. opener has 6% pfr. SIX PERCENT. his fold to 3b is obviously variance and ur 4b is probably breakeven if the 3bettor NEVER shoves lol. and he probably ships it pretty often aswell.

Assuming the 3bettor gets it in with QQ+,AK he has a 2.5% range for shoving and therefore 50% foldequity vs him, therefore it would be -EV to cold4bet.
However, if he only gets it in with KK+ we have (5-0.9)/5= 0.82 = 82% foldequity.

I highly doubt the original raiser will get it in with more than KK+. Assuming he only raises 5% in this position we have 82% foldequity vs him too, and therefore a total of 0.82*0.82 = 0.6724 = ~67%.
So it is still +EV to cold4bet even though it's clearly marginal.

Originally posted by Bierbaer

Originally posted by randomdonk
actually im not sure why i didnt say this in the first place but.. opener has 6% pfr. SIX PERCENT. his fold to 3b is obviously variance and ur 4b is probably breakeven if the 3bettor NEVER shoves lol. and he probably ships it pretty often aswell.

Assuming the 3bettor gets it in with QQ+,AK he has a 2.5% range for shoving and therefore 50% foldequity vs him, therefore it would be -EV to cold4bet.
However, if he only gets it in with KK+ we have (5-0.9)/5= 0.82 = 82% foldequity.

I highly doubt the original raiser will get it in with more than KK+. Assuming he only raises 5% in this position we have 82% foldequity vs him too, and therefore a total of 0.82*0.82 = 0.6724 = ~67%.
So it is still +EV to cold4bet even though it's clearly marginal.

honestly i think the original raiser probally will only get it in w/ AA. I dont think the 3bettor is only 3betting 5% here given villains stats+positions (i think its more like 10%+) so even if he shoves QQ+, AK we still have 75% fe. Also 6% is pfr not raise first, i think this opponent raises more like 10% from MP.

I like to have an ace in my hand if I were ever to do this (just remember if I actually do it I have AA and you should fold ♠_biggrin:) but I like your play, TBH I think it's somewhat tough to play against for either player, ok you might be seen as an aggressive reg but I still wonder how often you are 4 bet bluffing compared to 4bing for value. Not just you but anyone/ you know what I mean.