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[Closed] nl100 turn decision vs fish

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Paf4488
Joined: 24.11.2007

Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1363390
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $100.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.7, Hands: 761571
BB: $111.70 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 3, AF: 3.4, Hands: 27517
UTG: $163.85 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 4.3, Hands: 40541
UTG+1: $152.65 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 1, AF: 1.7, Hands: 6234
UTG+2: $40.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 4.3, Hands: 33940
MP1: $32.50 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 1.6, Hands: 190
MP2: $98.90 - VPIP: 48, PFR: 23, 3B: 14, AF: 4.5, Hands: 104, f3bet 0/6, afq flop 35, afq turn 55
CO: $110.20 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.0, Hands: 466
BTN: $37.50 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 8, AF: Infinity, Hands: 157

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with K :diamond: A :diamond:
3 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, MP2 calls $8

Flop: ($26.00) 7 :diamond: J :heart: 6 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: ($26.00) 4 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $12.00

what to do on turn?
or do you cbet flop?


1 reply
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Generally w/o reads a check on the flop is an option.
You can c/f or c/c, I don't really like a c/r because if we think he's bluffing we're better off bluffcatching 2 streets and the checkraise doesn't rep much so we don't have much foldequity vs better hands.

Against this guy I think a c/f is way too weak because his range is wide and he's probably bluffing with a frequency.

Having said that, my default play is still to cbet.
We will take down the pot a lot and if you argue he might raise and put us off our hand - this is only a problem if he is bluffing a lot.
And in case he is bluffing that much you can just 3betjam over his raise.
After all even against a TP type hand you have something like 25% equity, so you don't need too much foldequity to make the shove +EV.

Once he checks back I'd bet this turn because we have massive amounts of equity (even against something as strong as JT we have 32.8%) vs his range and even if he folds a hand like QT we're ok with that because we don't win anything against it anyway.

When he bets you can definitely not fold given the potequity we have.
Once we played it this way I actually like a checkraise because our hand is doing so well and his range is probably very weak.
In case he calls we can still jam about one third of rivers for value (any A, K and :diamond:).