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[Closed] PLO10 SH Second nut Flush on river facing pot-sized lead from tight-passive villain

 
Hand discussions for Omaha
Last Post by Ribbo 15 years ago
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blackops888
blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010
Posts: 502
12.08.2011, 02:13

This was somewhat an interesting situation. I had a very LAG image at the table, so maybe he was trying to level me, but I don't really know.

Villain had 24/6/1.5 (VPIP/PFR/AF) stats, but his AF distribution on flop, turn and river was 0.5, 1.0 and infinite, respectivelly.

I folded because I thought he might actually be drawing to the nut flush all the way long. Another thing is that all broadway cards except from the A were either out there or on my hand, so I figured he was not doing that with a 9-high flush.

An interesting info is that he snap bet into me... I mean... my display barely shown the Ts to me and his pot bet was already there. Real ninja style bet, indeed. ♠_confused:

IPoker Network $10.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 1405351
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $10.14
CO: $10.00
BTN: $7.18
SB: $6.17
Hero (BB): $17.47
UTG: $9.67

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with K♠ 3♣ 5♠ Q♠
4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) J♠ 9♣ 2♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.40) 6♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.80

River: ($3.00) T♠ (2 players)
SB bets $3.00, Hero folds

Final Pot: $3.00
SB wins $2.80
(Rake: $0.20)


It's all about the long run...

6 replies
Jelieva
Jelieva
Joined: 08.03.2009
Posts: 2,694
12.08.2011, 08:53

as I'm a fish I would never fold here, even vs passive player
cos you have 3 :spade: and 3 :spade: on board
he would play set or str8 the same way


Jelieva95s nl25

Ribbo
Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010
Posts: 6,151
12.08.2011, 09:06

Snap bets are typically bluffs in my experience. He is trying to make you believe he has no decision to make because he has the nuts. I would never fold in this spot with 3 spades in my hand. I'm going to be good enough of the time for this to be a call.


blackops888
blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010
Posts: 502
12.08.2011, 12:25

Originally posted by Ribbo
Snap bets are typically bluffs in my experience. He is trying to make you believe he has no decision to make because he has the nuts. I would never fold in this spot with 3 spades in my hand. I'm going to be good enough of the time for this to be a call.

I tend to agree with you... but at the same time... ah, I lost so much with the second nut flush.

When people bet that big even with the nuts, they cannot expect to be called, right? Maybe he was on a programmed bluff, just waiting for any spade to fire a pot sized bet...


It's all about the long run...

Ribbo
Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010
Posts: 6,151
12.08.2011, 15:14

When you have the second nuts in this spot, there is a 20% chance one of your 5 opponents was the nut flush.

4 of your opponents folded before the river, and the one who possibly has it is still in the hand, but it's still a 20% chance he has the nuts at this point (assuming nobody folds a nut flush draw on that board)


blackops888
blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010
Posts: 502
12.08.2011, 16:24

Originally posted by Ribbo
When you have the second nuts in this spot, there is a 20% chance one of your 5 opponents was the nut flush.

4 of your opponents folded before the river, and the one who possibly has it is still in the hand, but it's still a 20% chance he has the nuts at this point (assuming nobody folds a nut flush draw on that board)

Hum... nice one. But where does this 20% come from?

If it is right I am good 80% of the time, which almost always leads to a call on the river in PLO when HU and villain bets pot, right?


It's all about the long run...

Ribbo
Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010
Posts: 6,151
12.08.2011, 18:40

Originally posted by blackops888

Hum... nice one. But where does this 20% come from?

There are 20 cards dealt between your 5 opponents. If the ace is out there, the chance of it being suited is under 50%. Over all it works out that one of your opponents is dealt a suited ace 20% of the time in this situation.

Then just assume that that opponent will be the one seeing the river with you.

If it is right I am good 80% of the time, which almost always leads to a call on the river in PLO when HU and villain bets pot, right?

Without specific reads on your opponent, yes.


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