[Closed] NL100, ATs, 3 barell bluff

I'd consider checking the flop. A lot of opponents will play back a lot here and you only have backdoors.
However, since you have some equity vs his range, a bet is a possibility too.

On the turn I'm not too sure you have that much foldequity, but I think you have some and ofc you just picked up additional potequity.
Still, if I bet it is only if I plan on betting the river as well because I think some of the weaker Qx will be able to fold at some point.

Originally posted by Bierbaer
I'd consider checking the flop. A lot of opponents will play back a lot here and you only have backdoors.
However, since you have some equity vs his range, a bet is a possibility too.

On the turn I'm not too sure you have that much foldequity, but I think you have some and ofc you just picked up additional potequity.
Still, if I bet it is only if I plan on betting the river as well because I think some of the weaker Qx will be able to fold at some point.

I disagree with this so i'd like to bring up the reasons why i disagree, so that you can explain to me why i'm wrong and you are right:

F i agree

Turn
On the flop i think he would often call any straightdraw (which includes T8, KT), AJ type hands will very often float. 9x will call, and sometimes 33-88 too
Therefore i think turn bet is absolutely mandatory since Pairs 9 or weaker usually fold to the turn bet as well as the gutshots would fold most of the time too.
So now my question is why would you only bet turn if you are going to bet the river? More on this here:

River
On the river, i don't expect villain to fold a queen that often really. There are only 5 combinations of QTs,QJs, and i think KQ will very rarely fold. Also his stack size indicates that he could be a somewhat bad player, as well as his WTSD of 25 over large sample. Also one important factor when i say that we shouldn't fire the river is the fact that we beat any straightdraw and turned flushdraw (not so many i realise) that could easily decide to give up, makes betting versus JT type hands worse since we would sometimes win by checking too.
He probably has all 12 combinations of KQ, and he probably has some AQ combos too, but im not sure that he plays QJo due to his tight preflop stats (so that means 5combos of QTs-QJs), and i'm not sure he would fold QJo often enough to target those hands?

Not to mention that he could have slowplayed some hands due to the nature of that dry board

I forgot to tick "advise judge" in former post

You're not wrong, given your assumptions I absolutely agree with you.

It's just that in my experience people call a lot vs 2ndbarrels but fold a ton once you fire the third time - that's why I think they're folding Qx.
KQ will probably still call, but I rarely see them showing up with QJ and worse after they call a third barrel.

However, when I check the river in situations like this I see them showing up with stuff like 9x quite often.
Also when you check the river and argue that you'll win vs the straightdraws, you should consider that they can still bet - ofc you can argue that in this case we can just call, but this is still kind of a thin play, especially if we're unsure how thinly he can valuebet.

How you play this hand depends more on your own image than villain's imo. If ppl perceive you as aggro and barrelhappy post, there's just no chance of you getting folds out of 9x+.

Also, if you wanted to fold out something like QT you really need to get stacks in. Unless you're a nit ofc.

Based on villains stack size, i'd assume he's either a) a fish b) mss/sss dude who decided to stick around after doubling up. In neither of the cases i'd give my opponent credit of being ever capable of laying down tp. And tbh, they probably shouldn't either.

Originally posted by Bierbaer
You're not wrong, given your assumptions I absolutely agree with you.

It's just that in my experience people call a lot vs 2ndbarrels but fold a ton once you fire the third time - that's why I think they're folding Qx.
KQ will probably still call, but I rarely see them showing up with QJ and worse after they call a third barrel.

However, when I check the river in situations like this I see them showing up with stuff like 9x quite often.
Also when you check the river and argue that you'll win vs the straightdraws, you should consider that they can still bet - ofc you can argue that in this case we can just call, but this is still kind of a thin play, especially if we're unsure how thinly he can valuebet.

I don`t see villain folding his Qx (mby even JJ-TT) if he called the turn, because river came blank and all draws missed

Hm maybe I overestimate people's capabilities of folding, but if I were BU and the CO fires the 3rd time on the dry board I'd certainly muck QJ and KQ, even AQ would be close...