I've played 2 million hands online. Variance has bitten me over and over. Losing 40 buy-ins became a normal part of my game. In my process of anylizing my big pot hands I found that aces get cracked 23.5% vs a random pair not including AA. As per poker stove I have 81.5% equity. Not much difference but that's 285 pre-flop showdowns and lost 12 buy-ins that shouldn't have been lost, but that's variance.
What surprised me was flopping a set, how often was I up against an overpair to the board, with 90% equity getting my stack in and losing 26% of the time.(note:over 96 flop all ins). Lost 25 out of 96 such situations. Another 15 buy ins do to variance that should have been won.
How often is your set up against a bigger set? Out of 73 such situations my set was up against a bigger set 46 times.
Now this is where the math fails me. How often you flop a set on a 2 suited flop and lose to that flush???
607 such situations, flush improved 264 times, that's 43.5%. Losing more buy-ins this way then any other. Not saying that my set is against a flush each time, but it either minimizes your winning or maximizies your losses. In 137 situations where my set WAS vs a draw, flush, str8 or gutter, I lost 52%. I find this alarming.
Any advice out there??
yeah ofc 2 million hands is a big sample size but when you break down each specific situation that you mention the numbers arent that high e.g 96 times set vs over pair, 96 times is hardly anything really the more you play those situations the more variance will even out again.
W/R -6bbs/100) both FR and 6 max
